Integrated Assessment of Sustainable Energy Systems in China : The China Technology Program: A Framework for Decision Support in the Electric Sector of Shandong Province

by Eliasson, Baldur; Eliasson, Baldur; Lee, Yam Yee; China Energy Technology Program

• ISBN13: 9781402011986
• ISBN10: 1402011989
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2003-07-01
• Publisher: Kluwer Academic Pub

Summary

There is no progress without access to energy and no energy use without supporting technology. Only one sixth of the earth's population has an easy access to sufficient energy. The other five sixth will increase their demand for energy in the future. The global environmental problems we face will increasingly affect our daily life. Adjust and fair price for energy is necessary for comparing the pros and cons of energy technology application. The road to an objective analysis of an energy system is called "Integrated Energy Analysis" and covers a cradle-to-grave system approach. This book contains such an analysis of the electricity energy system in Shandong-Province, one of China's 32 Provinces. It also presents a decision support analysis tool. It should allow decision makers in China to choose the right system of electricity supply with minimum environmental impact and/or minimum "true" cost. The book contains a DVD, which contains a more extensive record of the research results obtained. It also contains all the tools, which have been developed. The methodology presented in this book and DVD is easily applicable to other Provinces in China and also other countries and regions. This research presents a pioneering effort in bringing together the three essential partners for any such research program, Industry, Academia and the Stakeholders, i.e. prospective users of the results. An important aspect of this international program with 75 participants was the leadership provided by a dedicated and professional Program Management Team from Industry. Developing a sustainable energy supply in China is an essential part of a global strategy to promote development while mitigating environmental pollution and the effect of greenhouse gas emissions.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. XXIII
Foreword I	p. XXV
Foreword II	p. XXVII
Introduction	p. 1
The AGS/ABB Collaboration	p. 3
The CETP Story	p. 4
The CETP Idea	p. 6
A Living Program	p. 7
The Structure of the Program	p. 7
An Idea for the Future	p. 8
References	p. 9
Notes	p. 10
General Description/Approach and Methodology	p. 11
General Description	p. 11
Shandong Province	p. 13
Operation of CETP	p. 16
Components of the Program	p. 19
Data Collection and Database Development	p. 20
Demand Forecasting	p. 21
Energy and Electricity Modeling Tasks	p. 21
Environmental, Health, and Safety-related Tasks	p. 23
Integration and Decision Support	p. 25
Outreach and Technical Exchange	p. 26
Conclusion	p. 27
References	p. 28
Data Collection and Database Development	p. 29
The Data Collection Task	p. 29
Work Plan and Guidelines	p. 30
Data Management Strategies	p. 30
Practical Experience	p. 33
The ABB-China Library	p. 34
Other Sources of Information	p. 35
Participation of SEPRI	p. 35
Different Stages of the Task	p. 36
Summary	p. 36
Database Development	p. 37
Lotus Notes Database	p. 37
CETP Website	p. 39
Conclusions	p. 41
Notes	p. 41
Demand Forecasting	p. 43
Geographic, Social, and Economic Characteristics	p. 43
Shandong's Energy Profile	p. 44
Energy and electricity balance	p. 44
Energy Consumption in China	p. 44
Goals and Methodology	p. 48
Goals	p. 48
Methodology	p. 48
Introduction to the Models	p. 49
Scope of Demand Forecasting	p. 51
Interaction with Other Partners and Stakeholders	p. 53
Scenario Construction	p. 54
Low GDP Growth Rate Scenario (Lowgdp)	p. 54
Economic Structure Change scenario (Structure)	p. 55
Low Energy Efficiency Scenario (Inefficient)	p. 56
Additional Scenarios	p. 56
Important Assumptions in Energy Demand Forecasting	p. 56
Macroeconomic Factors	p. 56
The Outlook for Social and Economic Development	p. 59
The Primary Sector	p. 61
The Industrial Sector	p. 62
Nonferrous Metals	p. 63
Textiles	p. 64
Chemicals	p. 65
Energy	p. 67
Energy-intensive Products in the Industrial Sector	p. 71
Construction	p. 76
Transportation	p. 77
Services	p. 78
Households	p. 79
Evolution of Electricity Consumption	p. 81
Assumptions Included in Forecasting Electricity Demand in the Additional Scenarios	p. 83
Forecasting Results and Analysis	p. 83
Final Energy Demand	p. 83
Forecasting Electric Loads	p. 89
Conclusions	p. 94
Optimization of Demand	p. 94
Improving Energy Efficiency	p. 95
Importing High Quality Energy	p. 96
Enhancing the Energy Infrastructure	p. 97
References	p. 98
Energy Economy Modeling Scenarios for China and Shandong	p. 99
Introduction	p. 99
General Background About China and Shandong Province	p. 102
Socio-economic Structure	p. 103
Structural Changes	p. 104
Energy Intensity	p. 105
Energy Resources	p. 105
Energy Use	p. 107
Gaseous Emissions	p. 108
Energy and Economy Modeling (EEM) Approach	p. 109
Overview	p. 109
MARKAL-Shandong; Model Description	p. 112
The China Regional Electricity Trade Model (CRETM)	p. 120
Model Results: MARKAL	p. 127
Sulfur Taxes and Caps at Constant Fossil-Fuel Prices (SSLC)	p. 131
Carbon Tax and Caps at Constant Fossil-Fuel Prices (SCLC)	p. 133
Low Demand and High (Increasing) Fossil-Fuel Prices (SBLH)	p. 133
High Demand and Constant Fossil-Fuel Prices	p. 134
MARKAL-Specific Interim Technology Assessment	p. 137
Cretm for both China and Shandong Province	p. 139
Scenario Results	p. 139
Parametric Sensitivity Studies	p. 151
Base Case with Optional Endogenous Modeling	p. 160
Main Results from CRETM	p. 163
Integration of Results	p. 169
Syntheses	p. 170
MARKAL Results for Shandong	p. 183
Comparison with Previous Studies	p. 187
Comparison with Results from within EEM Task (MARKAL and CRETM)	p. 187
Findings, Conclusions, and Recommendations	p. 189
Findings for Technologies and Emissions	p. 191
Conclusions	p. 193
Recommendations	p. 194
References	p. 197
Notes	p. 199
Electric Sector Simulation: A Tradeoff Analysis of Shandong Province's Electric Service Options	p. 201
Introduction	p. 201
Scenario-Based Multi-Attribute Tradeoff Analysis	p. 202
Policy Relevant Research--Stakeholders and Scenarios	p. 202
Tradeoff Analysis	p. 204
Shandong Building Blocks	p. 208
Electric Sector Simulation	p. 210
Simulating Growth in the Electric Sector	p. 212
Simulating Power System Operation	p. 213
Overview of the ESS Scenarios	p. 214
Attributes	p. 215
Shandong Uncertainties and Futures	p. 218
Demand for Electrical Energy	p. 219
Steam Coal Cost Uncertainties	p. 224
Natural Gas Cost Uncertainty	p. 226
Shandong Options and Strategies	p. 227
Baseline Assumptions	p. 229
New Generation Options	p. 230
Existing Generation Options	p. 234
Demand-Side Management Options	p. 236
The Reference Strategy and the Impact of Growth and Fuel Cost Uncertainties	p. 241
Performance of ESS Scenarios	p. 245
New Generation Options	p. 246
Existing Generation Options	p. 250
Demand-Side Options	p. 253
Integrated Supply and Demand-Side Strategies	p. 256
Selection of Strategies for Further Analysis	p. 259
Extending the Range of Options	p. 270
Encompassing Greater Uncertainties	p. 271
Conclusions	p. 272
References	p. 273
Energy Transportation Modeling	p. 275
Introduction	p. 275
Model Description	p. 276
Outline of the Model	p. 276
Formulation	p. 277
Input data and assumptions	p. 279
Scenario Analysis with ETM	p. 289
Scenario Settings	p. 289
Results	p. 291
Concluding Remarks	p. 314
References	p. 317
Life Cycle Assessment	p. 319
Introduction	p. 319
Full energy chain analysis	p. 319
Methodology and main assumptions	p. 320
Integration of LCA with other CETP Tasks	p. 325
The Coal Chain	p. 326
General	p. 326
Status of the coal chain associated with Shandong power plants	p. 327
Modeling the coal chain for current and future supply to the Shandong grid	p. 344
Results	p. 353
The Natural Gas Chain	p. 365
General	p. 365
Status and possible expansion of the natural gas chain in China	p. 366
Modeling the natural gas chain for future electricity supply to Shandong	p. 368
Results	p. 373
The Nuclear Chain	p. 381
General	p. 381
Status of the nuclear chain in China	p. 381
Modeling the nuclear chain for Shandong electricity supply scenarios	p. 384
Results	p. 391
Wind Power	p. 395
Potential in Shandong	p. 395
Modeling a wind turbine for future electric supply to Shandong	p. 396
Comparison of Current and Future Energy Chains	p. 396
Sensitivity Analysis for the Energy Chains	p. 402
Coal chain sensitivities	p. 403
Natural gas chain sensitivity	p. 406
Nuclear chain sensitivities	p. 407
Analysis of Scenarios Selected for the Mcda Task	p. 410
Description of scenarios and assumptions	p. 410
Results	p. 415
Health impacts calculated with LCA airborne emissions	p. 425
Conclusions	p. 426
Outlook	p. 433
References	p. 435
Notes	p. 441
Environmental Impact and External Cost Assessment	p. 445
Introduction	p. 445
Objectives, Scope and Sub-Tasks	p. 446
Objectives	p. 446
Scope	p. 446
Sub-tasks	p. 449
External Cost Assessment	p. 450
Concept and basic approaches to estimation	p. 450
Impact pathway approach and the EcoSense model	p. 452
Technical details of EcoSense China/Asia implementation	p. 464
Estimates of external costs for China and Shandong	p. 474
Acidification in China and Shandong	p. 535
The RAINS 7.52 Model of Air Pollution	p. 535
Energy demand and supply	p. 536
Analysis of Emission Control Scenarios	p. 543
Simulation of acid deposition in China	p. 556
Environmental impact assessment of control scenarios	p. 561
Optimization of Current Policy Scenario	p. 564
Conclusions	p. 572
Monetized impacts	p. 572
Acidification	p. 576
Recommendations on future work	p. 578
References	p. 579
Notes	p. 586
Assessment of Severe Accident Risks	p. 587
Introduction	p. 587
Objectives and Scope	p. 587
Information Sources	p. 589
Evaluations for Specific Energy Chains	p. 592
Coal chain	p. 592
Oil chain	p. 605
Natural gas chain	p. 609
Liquefied Petroleum Gas chain	p. 612
Hydro power	p. 614
Nuclear chain	p. 620
Energy Chain Comparisons	p. 644
Aggregated indicators and frequency consequence curves	p. 645
Indicators for the future	p. 651
Conclusions	p. 654
Specific chains	p. 654
Comparative aspects	p. 656
References	p. 657
Multicriteria Output Integration Analysis	p. 661
The Contexts of the Multicriteria Decision Aiding Approach in the Cetp Project	p. 661
The Sustainability Context	p. 661
The Decision-Making Context in China	p. 664
The Stakeholders Advisory Group (SAG)	p. 666
The "Potential Actions" or "Decision Scenarios"	p. 668
The Criteria	p. 670
The Aggregation Method	p. 673
The ELECTRE Family	p. 673
Forms of the results ("Problematics")	p. 673
General Approach	p. 674
Types of criteria	p. 675
ELECTRE III	p. 677
The Weighting Process	p. 679
The Performance Matrix	p. 681
Analysis of the MCDA Results	p. 682
References	p. 700
Notes	p. 701
Comparison and Integration of Cetp Tasks	p. 703
Introduction	p. 703
Comparison of Electric Sector Methodologies	p. 704
Relevant Factors in Methodological Comparison	p. 704
Discussion of Electric Sector Methodologies	p. 707
Comparison of Methodologies and Results	p. 709
Comparison of Task Conclusions	p. 714
Comparison of Conclusions	p. 716
DVD Tool for Documentation, Exploration and Decision Support	p. 717
Background	p. 717
Objectives and Targeted Users	p. 718
General Features	p. 718
Structure and Content	p. 718
Program Management for Integration	p. 726
Program Communications	p. 726
Stakeholder Interaction	p. 727
Technical Exchange and Outreach	p. 727
Conclusions and Recommendations	p. 729
Introduction	p. 729
The Analytic Framework	p. 729
Energy and Electricity Demand Forecasting	p. 730
Environmental Damage, Health and Accident Risk	p. 731
Energy Supply and Use	p. 736
Sustainability and Stakeholder Perspectives	p. 743
Recommendations	p. 745
Overall Remarks and Future Outlook	p. 747
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