Integrative Systems Approaches to Natural and Social Dynamics

by Allen, Peter M.; Malchow, Horst; Kriz, Jurgen; Matthies, Michael

• ISBN13: 9783540412922
• ISBN10: 3540412921
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2001-10-01
• Publisher: Springer Verlag

Summary

Presents the outline of a new basics of Systems Science and a methodology for its applications in complex environmental, economic, social, and technological systems.

Table of Contents

Part I General Aspects of Systems Science
The Dynamics of Knowledge and Ignorance: Learning the New Systems Science	3	(28)
P.M. Allen
Complexity, Simplicity and Knowledge	4	(2)
The Assumptions Used to Reduce Complexity to Simplicity	4	(2)
The Modelling Outcomes of Different Assumptions	6	(1)
Models and Knowledge: Simple to Complex	6	(12)
Equilibrium Models	7	(1)
Non-Linear Dynamical Models	7	(1)
Self-Organising Systems	8	(1)
Evolutionary Complex Systems	9	(7)
The General Structure of Modelling	16	(2)
Innovation and Design in Complex Systems	18	(8)
A Stochastic Dynamics of New Ideas	19	(2)
Exploring, Generating Knowledge and Hill-Climbing	21	(4)
Trust, Experience and Chance	25	(1)
The Law of Excess Diversity	26	(2)
Conclusions	28	(3)
References	29	(2)
Chaos, Computability, Determinism, and Freedom: A Critical Analysis from a System-Theoretic Point of View	31	(20)
Theodor Leiber
Introduction	31	(2)
Deterministic Chaos and Its Epistemological Implications: Determinism vs Determinability/Computability	33	(5)
Chaos Research, Quantum Theory, and Freedom	38	(2)
System-Theoretic Determination Model of Action-Decision-Freedom, Neuronal Realization, and Responsibility	40	(7)
Conclusions and Summary	47	(4)
References	49	(2)
The Function of Systems Concepts-From Systems Theory to Systems Science	51	(22)
Eberhard Umbach
Formulation of the Problem	51	(1)
Historical Aspects	52	(3)
Priorities of Systems Concepts with Different Authors	55	(1)
Criticism of Systems Concepts	56	(11)
Some Critical Authors	56	(1)
Ida Hoos (1972)	56	(1)
Robert Lilienfeld (1978)	57	(2)
Czayka (1974)	59	(1)
Kappel and Schwarz (1981)	60	(1)
Klaus Mueller 1996	61	(4)
Summary of the Aspects of Criticism	65	(2)
Evaluation of Criticisms	67	(2)
Conclusions for Systems Science	69	(4)
References and Further Reading	70	(3)
Fuzzy Aspects of Systems Science	73	(12)
William Silvert
Introduction	73	(1)
What is Fuzzy Set Theory?	74	(1)
Some Applications of Fuzzy Set Theory to Systems Issues	75	(6)
Remote Sensing	75	(1)
Ecological Examples	75	(1)
Classification of Environmental Impacts	76	(1)
Evaluation of Ambiguous Data	77	(1)
Simplification and Clarification	78	(1)
Fuzzy Control	78	(1)
Forecasting	79	(1)
Fuzzy Classification and ``Lumping''	80	(1)
Summary	81	(4)
References	81	(4)
Part II Biological Systems
On the Phenomenon of Bimodality in Aggregation Pattern Dynamics	85	(10)
E. G. D' Ambrogio
Introduction	85	(1)
The Reaction-Diffusion Model	86	(2)
The Stochastic Model	88	(3)
The Combined Action of External and Natural Noise	91	(1)
Conclusion	92	(3)
References	94	(1)
Parameter Estimation in Nonlinear Systems with Dynamic Noise	95	(8)
Nico Stollenwerk
Introduction	95	(1)
Epidemic Models	96	(1)
SI-Model with Demographic Stochasticity	96	(1)
Analytic Solution for the SI Case	97	(2)
Empirical Likelihood	99	(1)
A First More Complex Test Case	100	(1)
Summary and Prospects	100	(3)
References	101	(2)
Spatial Pattern Formation in a Simple Model of Consumer-Resource System	103	(8)
Alexander Bobyrev
Eugeny Kriksunov
Vladimir Burmensky
Horst Malchow
Introduction	103	(2)
The Model	105	(1)
Resource	105	(1)
Consumers	105	(1)
Turbulent Mixing	106	(1)
Results	106	(2)
General Aspects of the Model Behavior	106	(1)
Influence of the Parameters	107	(1)
Discussion	108	(3)
References	109	(2)
Scaling Laws for the Prey-Predator Interaction Rates	111	(8)
Zhen-Shan Lin
Bai-Lian Li
Introduction	111	(1)
Basic Physical Model for Predating Processes	112	(1)
Scaling Relations from Hydrodynamic Theory	113	(1)
Scaling Relations from Kinematics and Biomechanics	114	(1)
Scaling Relations from Kinetic Energy Consideration	115	(2)
Conclusion	117	(2)
References	117	(2)
Active Motion in Systems with Energy Supply	119	(24)
Werner Ebeling
Frank Schweitzer
Introduction	119	(2)
Model of Driven Brownian Dynamics	121	(6)
Equations of Motion and Energy Balance	121	(2)
Non-Linear Friction Functions and Free Motion	123	(2)
Stationary Solutions for the Distribution Function	125	(2)
One-Dimensional Driven Dynamics Including Forces	127	(7)
Motion in Linear and Ratchet-Like Potentials	127	(4)
The Role of Interactions: Model of Dissipative Toda Chains	131	(3)
Active Brownian Motion in Two-Dimensional Potentials	134	(5)
Action Motion with Localized Energy Sources	134	(3)
Motion of ``Swarms''	137	(2)
Discussion and Applications	139	(4)
References	140	(3)
Reconstruction of Human Liver Parenchyma with Computer Program	143	(12)
A. Barbieri
R. Dacco
F. Girizzi
N. Dioguardi
Introduction	143	(1)
Anatomical Principles of the Liver	144	(1)
Materials and Methods	144	(6)
Centripetal Attraction	147	(1)
Cell Duplication	147	(3)
Results	150	(1)
Discussion	150	(1)
Conclusions	151	(4)
References	151	(4)
Part III Ecological and Environmental Systems
Recent Developments in System Ecology	155	(16)
S. E. Jorgensen
Introduction	155	(1)
A Central Tentative Law of Ecosystem Theories	156	(7)
The Relation to Other Theories	163	(2)
Propositions and Ecosystem Properties	165	(6)
Closing Remarks	169	(1)
References	169	(2)
GIS-Based Catchment Modeling	171	(10)
M. Matthies
F. Pfafflin
J. Berlekamp
Objectives	171	(1)
Area of Investigation	172	(1)
Determination of the Catchment Areas	173	(1)
Rainfall-Runoff	174	(2)
Rainfall	174	(1)
Model Approach	174	(1)
Evapotranspiration	175	(1)
Sewage Water Discharge and Water Removal	175	(1)
Nitrogen Impact	176	(1)
Results and Discussion	176	(3)
Rainfall-Runoff	176	(2)
Nitrogen Impact	178	(1)
Conclusion and Outlook	179	(2)
References	180	(1)
Hybrid Low Level Petri Nets in Environmental Modeling-Development Platform and Case Studies	181	(22)
Ralf Seppelt
Marco-Michael Temme
Introduction	181	(2)
Requirements of Environmental Modeling	181	(1)
Concepts of Hybrid Model Development	182	(1)
Aim and Scope of the Development	182	(1)
Methodological Frame Work	183	(5)
Hybrid Low Level Petri Nets	183	(1)
Structure and Topology	183	(2)
Functional Behavior	185	(1)
Switching Conditions	185	(1)
Stochastic Time Weighting and Ordinary Differential Equation Systems	185	(1)
Development Platform	186	(1)
Functionalities	186	(1)
Simulation	187	(1)
Case Study 1: Generic Modeling of Crop Growth	188	(6)
Modeling of Crop Development	188	(3)
Petri Net	191	(1)
Structure and Topology	191	(1)
Sub-Net: Physiological Stage Model	191	(1)
Sub-Net: Crop Growth	192	(1)
Results	192	(2)
Case Study 2: Meta-Population in Island Biography	194	(5)
Meta-Population in Island Biogeography	194	(1)
Insular Zoogeography	194	(1)
Reproduction	194	(1)
The Galapagos Archipelago and the Blue-Winged Grasshopper	195	(1)
Overlay of Map and Petri Net	195	(1)
Results	196	(3)
Discussion	199	(4)
Concluding Remarks	199	(1)
Outlook	199	(1)
References	200	(3)
An Empirically Based Approach to Self-Organization in Forest Ecosystems	203	(20)
Martin Jenssen
Introduction	203	(1)
The Understanding of Forests as Self-Organizing Ecosystems in Historical Development	204	(2)
The Forest Ecosystem Types as Statistical Ensembles Corresponding to the Attractors of Natural and Artificial Forests	206	(4)
The Identification and Modeling of Forest Ecosystem Types in a Multidimensional Ecological Feature Space	210	(7)
Applications to Forest-Ecological Research, Forest Monitoring, Forestry, and Land-Use Planning	217	(2)
Concluding Remarks: The Need to Use and to Protect Self-Organization Capacities of Forests	219	(4)
References	220	(3)
Regional-Scale Groundwater Quality: Monitoring and Assessment Using Spatially Referenced Environmental Data	223	(12)
Stefan Fuest
Jurgen Berlekamp
Michael Matthies
Introduction	223	(1)
Data and Methods	224	(3)
Monitoring	224	(1)
Nitrogen Balance	225	(1)
Hydrology	225	(1)
Nitrate Contents	226	(1)
Results	227	(4)
Discussion	231	(1)
Monitoring	231	(1)
Hydrology	231	(1)
Nitrogen Balance	231	(1)
Nitrate Contents	232	(1)
Conclusion	232	(3)
References	233	(2)
Mathematical Aspects in the Modeling of Urban Environmental Quality	235	(14)
Isabel Fernandez
Jose M. Pacheco
Introduction: Do Urban Ecosystems Exist?	235	(1)
On the Definition of Quality	236	(2)
Models for the Evolution of Quality	238	(7)
The Simplest Model	238	(1)
A More Realistic Assumption	239	(2)
Quality is Destroyed by Population	241	(2)
Quality has a Price	243	(2)
Does Quality Always Mean Good Quality?	245	(2)
Conclusions and Views	247	(2)
References	248	(1)
Elaboration of Systems Hydroecological Monitoring of Aral Sea Basin	249	(14)
A. Nasrulin
H. Lieth
Introduction	250	(1)
History of Problem Solution Attempts	250	(2)
Methods - The Work Plan	252	(4)
Results and Discussion	256	(4)
Conclusions	260	(3)
References	261	(2)
Information Theoretic Measures for the Maturity of Ecosystems	263	(12)
Thomas Wilhelm
Rainer Bruggemann
Introduction	263	(1)
Network Description of Ecosystems	264	(1)
The Contradiction in the Understanding of the Mature Ecosystem State	265	(2)
The New Measure Medium Articulation: Resolution of the Contradiction	267	(4)
Discussion	271	(4)
References	272	(3)
Semianalytical Spatial Ranges and Persistences of Non-Polar Chemical for Reaction-Diffusion Type Dynamics	275	(14)
Hermann Held
Introduction	275	(1)
The General Model	276	(1)
Definition of the Intensive Parameters R and τ	276	(2)
Evaluation of τ and R	278	(6)
Evaluation of τ and Relative Occupation	278	(1)
Evaluation of R - General Properties	279	(1)
The Ring Model	279	(1)
The Limiting Case of Large Diffusion Rate	279	(1)
The Limiting Case of Small Diffusion Rate	280	(1)
The Spherical Model	280	(1)
The Limiting Case of Large Diffusion Rate	281	(1)
The Limiting Case of Small Diffusion Rate	281	(1)
1D vs 2D	282	(1)
An Important Multi-Compartment Example	283	(1)
The Mode of Entry	284	(1)
Comparison of Cumulative and Non-Cumulative Spatial Measures	284	(1)
Summary	285	(4)
References	285	(4)
Part IV Technology and Risk Assessment
The Uncertainties of Risk Communication in Knowledge Societies	289	(16)
Gotthard Bechmann
Nico Stehr
Introduction	289	(1)
Knowledge Societies	290	(2)
Knowledge about Knowledge	292	(2)
Remarks on the Status of Risk Research	294	(4)
Criticism of the Formal Concept of Risk	295	(1)
On the Difference Between Decision-Makers and Those Affected by Risks of Decisions	296	(2)
The Return of Uncertainty in Society	298	(2)
Risk of Decision in the Context of Fragile Knowledge	300	(5)
References	302	(3)
A Dynamic Account of Rational Decision Making under Uncertainty: The Case of Risk Assessment in Hazardous Technological Systems	305	(14)
Gebhard Geiger
Introduction	305	(1)
A Dynamic Approach to Utility-Oriented Decision Making Under Risk	306	(6)
The Conceptual Framework	306	(1)
Outline of the Theory of Risk Acceptance	307	(2)
The Utility of Marginally Acceptable Risk	309	(2)
Simple Dynamic Decision Processes	311	(1)
Applications to Technological Risk Assessment	312	(5)
Variability of Risk Acceptance	312	(1)
Low-Probability, High-Consequence Risks	313	(1)
Risk Aversion Factors	314	(1)
Voluntary vs Involuntary Risks	315	(1)
The Starr Curve	316	(1)
Discussion and Conclusion	317	(2)
References	318	(1)
Assessing the Risk of Transgenic Crops - The Role of Scientific Belief Systems	319	(10)
Justus Wesseler
Introduction	319	(2)
The Model	321	(3)
Results	324	(2)
Conclusions	326	(3)
References	327	(2)
Evaluation Methodology for Fate and Exposure Models	329	(12)
Stefan Schwartz
Volker Berding
Michael Matthies
Assuring the Quality of Models	329	(3)
The Validation Problem	330	(1)
External and Internal Validation and Software Evaluation	330	(2)
The Importance of the Models Purpose	332	(1)
Model Validation Methodology	332	(3)
Internal Validation	333	(1)
External Validation	333	(1)
Both Aspects of Validation	334	(1)
Uncertainty Analysis	334	(1)
Alternative Models	334	(1)
Expert Judgment	335	(1)
Software Evaluation Methodology	335	(2)
Quality Testing of Software	335	(1)
Standardized Quality Requirements	335	(1)
Quality Requirements for Fate and Exposure Software	336	(1)
Discussion	337	(1)
Conclusions	338	(3)
References	339	(2)
Quantitative Risk Assessment Applied to Fragmental Rockfall Hazard on a Rock Slope	341	(22)
Claudio Mahler
Luis Carlos Dias de Oliveira
Introduction	341	(2)
Geotechnical, Geomorphologic and Geologic Characterization of the Risk Area	343	(3)
Geomorphologic Aspects	344	(1)
Geological Aspects	345	(1)
Geotechnical Aspects	345	(1)
Quantitative Risk Assessment	346	(11)
Risk Assessment Framework	346	(3)
Quantitative Risk Analyses	349	(1)
Accident Frequency Evaluation	349	(1)
Consequence Analysis	349	(1)
Travel Definition and Maximum Distance Reached by Fragments	349	(2)
Construction Vulnerability	351	(3)
Individual and Total Risk Estimate	354	(2)
Risk Interpretation	356	(1)
Acceptable and Tolerable Individual Risk Criteria	356	(1)
Conclusions and Suggestions for Risk Management	357	(6)
References	358	(5)
Part V Socio-Economic Systems
On the Interrelation of Social, Economic and Ecological Systems - Theoretical Approaches and Policy Implications on the Feasibility of Comprehensive Sustainability	363	(16)
Stefan Giljum
Friedrich Hinterberger
Jorg Kohn
Introduction	363	(1)
Sustainable Development and Complex Systems	364	(4)
Interrelations of Society, Economy and Environment: the Triangle of Sustainability	364	(1)
Dependencies of (Sub) Systems and the Discussion on Weak vs Strong Sustainability	365	(1)
Sustainability, System Resilience, and Integration	366	(1)
Biological vs Cultural Evolution: The Time Factor in Different (Sub) Systems	366	(2)
Complex Systems and Limited Steering Capacities	368	(1)
Theoretical Approaches	368	(5)
Coevolutionary Approaches to Sustainability	368	(1)
System Approaches: Bossel's Orientors	369	(1)
Resource Flows as Interlinkage Indicators	370	(3)
Policy Recommendations	373	(6)
Four Levels of Environmental Sustainability	374	(1)
Four Levels of Competitiveness	375	(1)
Four Levels of Social Cohesion	376	(1)
References	377	(2)
Dynamic Modeling for Consensus Building in Complex Environmental and Investment Decision Making	379	(22)
Matthias Ruth
Approaches to Problem Solving	379	(2)
The Role of Dynamic Modeling in Consensus Building and Decision Making	381	(3)
Stakeholder Involvement in Science and Decision-Making	384	(2)
Three-Stage Scoping and Consensus Building Process	386	(1)
Dynamic Modeling for Investment and Policy Decision-Making	387	(9)
Climate Change Policy Implications for Industrial Sectors	387	(4)
Climate Change Impacts on Urban Infrastructure Systems and Services	391	(5)
Summary and Conclusions	396	(5)
References	397	(4)
Multi-Agent Modeling of Resource Systems and Markets: Theoretical Considerations and Simulation Results	401	(20)
Frank Beckenbach
Introduction	401	(1)
Multi-Agent Systems (mas)	402	(4)
Basic Features of mas	402	(1)
Economic Modeling with mas	403	(3)
The Starting Point: the ``Sugarscape''-mas and its Development	406	(12)
Basic Features	406	(1)
Resource System	407	(2)
Agent System	409	(4)
Total System	413	(2)
A Simulation Example	415	(3)
Conclusions and Perspectives	418	(3)
References	419	(2)
Integration of Social and Ecological Processes in Quantitative Models for the Management of Water Systems	421	(16)
J.L. de Kok
H.G. Wind
Introduction	421	(4)
Integration of Social and Ecological Processes in Quantitative System Models	421	(1)
Integrated Water Management	422	(1)
Framework of Analysis: Relating Measures to Objectives	422	(3)
Case Example 1: Influence of Habitat Condition on Abundance of Reef Fish	425	(2)
Introduction	425	(1)
Methodology	425	(1)
Results	426	(1)
Case Example 2: Relevance of Spatial Differentiation in a Bioeconomic Model for Cockle Fisheries	427	(4)
Introduction	427	(1)
Cockle Fisheries	428	(1)
Cockle Fisheries: First Order Model	428	(1)
Results	429	(2)
Case Example 3: System Dynamics Approach to Modeling Human Behavior	431	(2)
Introduction	431	(1)
The Model	431	(2)
Results	433	(1)
Discussion	433	(4)
References	435	(2)
Researching Alternative, Sustainable Agricultural Systems. A Modeling Approach by Examples from Denmark	437	(32)
Hugo Fjelsted Alroe
Erik Steen Kristensen
Introduction	437	(2)
The Methods Used in the Assessment of the Overall Consequences of Phasing Out Pesticide Use in Denmark	439	(8)
The General Methodology	439	(1)
The End Point: The All-Organic Scenario	440	(1)
The Point of Reference: Agriculture Today	441	(1)
The Consequences	442	(1)
The Modeling of an All-Organic Agriculture	442	(1)
General Preconditions and Presumptions for the Model Structure	443	(1)
Crop Composition and Rotation	443	(3)
Production Levels	446	(1)
Economy	447	(1)
The Consequences of a Total Conversion to Organic Farming in Denmark	447	(7)
Consequences for the Agricultural Production	448	(1)
Nutrient Balances, the Environment and Public Health	448	(4)
Economy and Law	452	(2)
Discussion	454	(11)
Methodological Issues	455	(1)
The Major Questions Concerning the Choice of Scenarios	455	(2)
Principles and Preferences	457	(1)
Results and Values	458	(1)
Balance and Sustainability	459	(1)
Meanings of Sustainability in Agriculture	460	(2)
Knowledge and Precaution	462	(1)
Risks and Precaution in Use of Pesticides	463	(1)
Sustainability, Precaution, and Ethics	464	(1)
Conclusion	465	(4)
References	466	(3)
An Approach to Define Sustainable Development Indicators	469	(12)
Ildiko Tulbure
Sustainable Development	469	(1)
Operationalization of Sustainable Development	470	(1)
Sustainable Development Indicators	471	(2)
About Fuzzy Logic	473	(2)
Applying the Fuzzy Logic Based Method to Describe Air Quality	475	(3)
Conclusions	478	(3)
References	478	(3)
Modeling Sustainability - European and German Approaches	481	(24)
Joachim H. Spangenberg
Ines Omann
Andreas Bockermann
Bernd Meyer
Introduction	482	(4)
Sustainability	482	(1)
Sustainable Growth	483	(3)
The Models	486	(2)
PANTA RHEI	486	(1)
The SuE Model	487	(1)
Panta Rhei Results	488	(5)
Assessing the Results with the sustainability Criteria	490	(1)
Industrial Dynamics in Different Scenarios	491	(1)
Conclusion	492	(1)
SuE Results	493	(4)
Elements of Environmentally Efficient Production	493	(1)
Energy and Material Use Efficiency	493	(1)
Organic Agriculture	493	(1)
Transport Policies	494	(1)
Eco-Efficient Production	494	(1)
Eco-Efficient Services	495	(1)
Employment and Technology	495	(1)
Problem Solving Growth	495	(1)
Reducing Working Time	496	(1)
Towards a Sustainable Development	496	(1)
Comparison of the Results	497	(1)
Comparison of the Models	498	(3)
Conclusions	501	(4)
References	502	(3)
Constructing Knowledge Landscapes Within the Framework of Geometrically Oriented Evolutionary Theories	505	(14)
Andrea Scharnhorst
Introduction	505	(1)
G_O_E_THE as a Framework to Construct Knowledge Landscapes	506	(3)
Trends in National Research Profiles Visible in a Disciplinary Knowledge Space	509	(5)
Summary	514	(5)
References	514	(5)
Part VI Psychological and Cognitive Systems
Self-Organization of Cognitive and Interactional Processes	519	(20)
Jurgen Kriz
Introduction	519	(2)
The Contribution of Gestalt Psychology	521	(2)
Iterative Designs	523	(2)
Pattern Formation, Pattern Recognition, and Completion-Dynamics	525	(6)
Patterns of Interaction	531	(3)
Completion Dynamics, Teleology, and Creativity	534	(5)
References	536	(3)
Dynamics of Perceptual Representation	539	(12)
Michael A. Stadler
John-D. Haynes
Sensitivity and Flexibility of Perception	539	(2)
Pragnanz	541	(2)
Local and Global Processing: The Role of Context	543	(1)
Going Beyond the Data Given: Grouping and Completion	544	(2)
Top-Down Modulation	546	(1)
Reduction of Complexity: Non-Linearization and Categorization	547	(4)
References	548	(3)
Embodied Cognitive Science: Concepts, Methods and Implications for Psychology	551	(18)
Wolfgang Tschacher
Christian Scheier
Introduction: Problems of `Classical' Artificial Intelligence Research	551	(3)
Autonomous Agents: A New Approach in Cognitive Science	554	(3)
Action and Self-Organization: Conceptualization of a Cognitive System	557	(4)
Implications for Psychology	561	(3)
Discussion	564	(5)
References	565	(4)
Changing Environmental Attitudes and Behaviors in Populations: Simulation Studies Based on Socio-Psychological Theories	569	(10)
Hans-Joachim Mosler
Introduction	570	(1)
The Simulation Approach	571	(2)
Processing Observation of Others' Behavior Towards the Environment: Applying Bandura's Theory of Social Learning	573	(3)
Conclusions from the Simulation Experiments	576	(3)
References	577	(2)
Vision as Computation, or: Does a Computer Vision System Really Assign Meaning to Images?	579	(10)
Andreas Schierwagen
Introduction	580	(1)
Historical Outline of Computer Vision	581	(1)
Knowledge-Based Machine Vision Today	582	(2)
``Understanding'' with AI Machines	584	(2)
Conclusion	586	(3)
References	587	(2)
Subject Index	589