Introduction to Environmental Modelling

by Smith, Jo; Smith, Pete

• ISBN13: 9780199272068
• ISBN10: 0199272069
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2007-05-10
• Publisher: Oxford University Press

Summary

The global environment is a complex mix of interlinked processes, about which observation can tell us a great deal. But how can we use current observation to model future events, or to predict the consequences of scenarios that don't yet exist?

Author Biography

Dr Jo Smith is Senior Lecturer in Soil Modelling, and Pete Smith is Professor of Soils and Global Change, both in the School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. viii
Acknowledgements	p. x
Introduction	p. 1
What if there was life on Mars?	p. 1
What is a model?	p. 2
Why use models	p. 4
Which model should I use?	p. 8
Determining what type of model to use	p. 9
Determining what type of mathematics to use in the model	p. 15
Choosing an existing model	p. 20
How is model made?	p. 21
Summary	p. 23
Problems	p. 24
How to develop a model	p. 26
Choose the type of model	p. 27
Why am I doing this?	p. 27
How should I do this?	p. 27
The principle of parsimony	p. 29
What do I do now?	p. 30
Draw up a conceptual model	p. 31
Draw a picture	p. 32
List all hypotheses	p. 33
List all assumptions	p. 33
Set the boundary conditions	p. 33
Attach a mathematical model	p. 35
The parts of a mathematical model	p. 36
Linking together fixed parameters and input variables	p. 36
Choosing the mathematical approach to derive the model	p. 38
Example	p. 40
Construct a computer model	p. 45
General Spreadsheets	p. 46
Specialist modelling software	p. 52
High-level programming languages	p. 55
And then...?	p. 61
Summary	p. 62
Problems	p. 63
Further reading	p. 65
References	p. 67
Web links	p. 67
How to evaluate a model	p. 69
Decide what type of evaluation is needed	p. 70
Plot the results (graphical analysis)	p. 71
Plots to reveal the accuracy of the simulation	p. 72
Plots to illustrate the behaviour of the model components	p. 76
Plots to establish the important model components	p. 78
Calculate the accuracy of the simulation (quantitative analysis)	p. 81
Analysis of coincidence	p. 84
Analysis of association	p. 94
An example of the use of statistics to assess the accuracy of a model: the model of soil carbon change on Mars	p. 98
Examine the behaviour of the model (sensitivity analysis)	p. 106
What is sensitivity analysis and why is it important?	p. 106
Methods used in sensitivity analysis	p. 107
Expressing sensitivity	p. 107
Determine the importance of the model components (uncertainty analysis)	p. 109
What is uncertainty analysis and why is it important?	p. 109
Methods used in uncertainty analysis	p. 110
Representing variation in the input parameters and model outputs	p. 110
Expressing uncertainty	p. 111
And then...?	p. 113
Summary	p. 114
Problems	p. 115
Further reading	p. 117
References	p. 117
Web links	p. 118
How to apply a model	p. 119
Scientific representation	p. 122
Who is the end-user?	p. 123
How is the model used?	p. 124
Guard against input error	p. 126
Guard against misinterpretation of the results	p. 126
Documentation	p. 127
Expert and decision support systems	p. 128
Who is the end-user?	p. 129
How is the model used?	p. 130
Guard against input error	p. 130
Guard against misinterpretation of the results	p. 132
Documentation	p. 132
Risk assessment	p. 134
Who is the End-user?	p. 135
How is the model used?	p. 136
Guard against input error	p. 137
Guard against misinterpretation of the results	p. 137
Documentation	p. 138
Spatially-explicit applications	p. 139
Who is the end-user?	p. 139
How is the model used?	p. 140
Guard against input error	p. 143
Guard against misinterpretation of the results	p. 144
Documentation	p. 144
Epilogue	p. 146
How has life on Mars been improved?	p. 146
The real-Earth applications of the models used in this book	p. 147
So is this the end?	p. 150
Summary	p. 152
Problems	p. 156
Further reading	p. 157
References	p. 157
Web links	p. 158
Solutions to Problems
Solutions to problems in Chapter 1	p. 159
Solutions to problems in Chapter 2	p. 160
Solutions to problems in Chapter 3	p. 167
Solutions to problems in Chapter 4	p. 172
Glossary	p. 176
Index	p. 179
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