| Preface | |
| Introduction | p. 1 |
| Background | p. 1 |
| Scope | p. 1 |
| Notation | p. 5 |
| Distributions related to the Normal distribution | p. 7 |
| Quadratic forms | p. 11 |
| Estimation | p. 12 |
| Exercises | p. 15 |
| Model Fitting | p. 19 |
| Introduction | p. 19 |
| Examples | p. 19 |
| Some principles of statistical modelling | p. 32 |
| Notation and coding for explanatory variables | p. 37 |
| Exercises | p. 40 |
| Exponential Family and Generalized Linear Models | p. 45 |
| Introduction | p. 45 |
| Exponential family of distributions | p. 46 |
| Properties of distributions in the exponential family | p. 48 |
| Generalized linear models | p. 51 |
| Examples | p. 52 |
| Exercises | p. 55 |
| Estimation | p. 59 |
| Introduction | p. 59 |
| Example: Failure times for pressure vessels | p. 59 |
| Maximum likelihood estimation | p. 64 |
| Poisson regression example | p. 66 |
| Exercises | p. 69 |
| Inference | p. 73 |
| Introduction | p. 73 |
| Sampling distribution for score statistics | p. 74 |
| Taylor series approximations | p. 76 |
| Sampling distribution for MLEs | p. 77 |
| Log-likelihood ratio statistic | p. 79 |
| Sampling distribution for the deviance | p. 80 |
| Hypothesis testing | p. 85 |
| Exercises | p. 87 |
| Normal Linear Models | p. 89 |
| Introduction | p. 89 |
| Basic results | p. 89 |
| Multiple linear regression | p. 95 |
| Analysis of variance | p. 102 |
| Analysis of covariance | p. 114 |
| General linear models | p. 117 |
| Exercises | p. 118 |
| Binary Variables and Logistic Regression | p. 123 |
| Probability distributions | p. 123 |
| Generalized linear models | p. 124 |
| Dose response models | p. 124 |
| General logistic regression model | p. 131 |
| Goodness of fit statistics | p. 135 |
| Residuals | p. 138 |
| Other diagnostics | p. 139 |
| Example: Senility and WAIS | p. 140 |
| Exercises | p. 143 |
| Nominal and Ordinal Logistic Regression | p. 149 |
| Introduction | p. 149 |
| Multinomial distribution | p. 149 |
| Nominal logistic regression | p. 151 |
| Ordinal logistic regression | p. 157 |
| General comments | p. 162 |
| Exercises | p. 163 |
| Poisson Regression and Log-Linear Models | p. 165 |
| Introduction | p. 165 |
| Poisson regression | p. 166 |
| Examples of contingency tables | p. 171 |
| Probability models for contingency tables | p. 175 |
| Log-linear models | p. 177 |
| Inference for log-linear models | p. 178 |
| Numerical examples | p. 179 |
| Remarks | p. 183 |
| Exercises | p. 183 |
| Survival Analysis | p. 187 |
| Introduction | p. 187 |
| Survivor functions and hazard functions | p. 189 |
| Empirical survivor function | p. 193 |
| Estimation | p. 195 |
| Inference | p. 198 |
| Model checking | p. 199 |
| Example: Remission times | p. 201 |
| Exercises | p. 202 |
| Clustered and Longitudinal Data | p. 207 |
| Introduction | p. 207 |
| Example: Recovery from stroke | p. 209 |
| Repeated measures models for Normal data | p. 213 |
| Repeated measures models for non-Normal data | p. 218 |
| Multilevel models | p. 219 |
| Stroke example continued | p. 222 |
| Comments | p. 224 |
| Exercises | p. 225 |
| Bayesian Analysis | p. 229 |
| Frequentist and Bayesian paradigms | p. 229 |
| Priors | p. 233 |
| Distributions and hierarchies in Bayesian analysis | p. 238 |
| WinBUGS software for Bayesian analysis | p. 238 |
| Exercises | p. 241 |
| Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods | p. 243 |
| Why standard inference fails | p. 243 |
| Monte Carlo integration | p. 243 |
| Markov chains | p. 245 |
| Bayesian inference | p. 255 |
| Diagnostics of chain convergence | p. 256 |
| Bayesian model fit: the DIC | p. 260 |
| Exercises | p. 262 |
| Example Bayesian Analyses | p. 267 |
| Introduction | p. 267 |
| Binary variables and logistic regression | p. 267 |
| Nominal logistic regression | p. 271 |
| Latent variable model | p. 272 |
| Survival analysis | p. 275 |
| Random effects | p. 277 |
| Longitudinal data analysis | p. 279 |
| Some practical tips for WinBUGS | p. 286 |
| Exercises | p. 288 |
| Appendix | p. 291 |
| Software | p. 293 |
| References | p. 295 |
| Index | p. 303 |
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