Preface | p. iii |
Summary | p. ix |
Acknowledgments | p. xv |
Introduction | p. 1 |
Israel and Iran Increasingly View Each Other as Regional Rivals | p. 1 |
The Rivalry Can Further Destabilize the Region, Particularly as Iranian Nuclear Efforts Move Forward | p. 4 |
Study Organization and Approach | p. 7 |
A Brief History of Israeli-Iranian Cooperation and Confrontation | p. 9 |
The Periphery Doctrine: The Enemies of My Enemy Are My Friends | p. 10 |
Military and Economic Cooperation During the Shah's Rule | p. 12 |
Israeli-Iranian Cooperation After the 1979 Revolution | p. 13 |
A Growing Rivalry | p. 16 |
Conclusion | p. 17 |
Israeli Perceptions of and Policies Toward Iran | p. 19 |
Geostrategic Concerns Are Driving Israeli Threat Perceptions of Iran, but So Is Iranian Ideology | p. 20 |
Iranian Military Capabilities, Particularly Its Missile Program, Elevated the Iranian Threat in the 1990s | p. 20 |
Israeli Concerns About Iran Extend Beyond Military Capabilities to Balance of Power Considerations | p. 25 |
Israelis Are Concerned About the Influence a Nuclear Weapon Would Give Iran | p. 27 |
Israelis Nonetheless Take Iranian Ideology and Potential Nuclear Use Seriously | p. 30 |
Domestic Differences Emerge over How to Discuss and Respond to the Iranian Challenge | p. 35 |
Some Debate Has Emerged About the Use of the "Existential Threat" Language | p. 36 |
The Greatest Fissures Within the Security Establishment Emerge over Differing Cost-Benefit Assessments of a Military Strike Option | p. 38 |
Views of the Effectiveness of Sanctions and Sabotage Efforts Such as Stuxnet, as Well as the U.S. Position, Could Affect the Israeli Debate on the Military Option | p. 43 |
Israel and Iran in the Future | p. 47 |
Military Doctrine and Policy Are Shifting in Ways That Suggest Some Preparation for a Nuclear Future with Iran | p. 47 |
Israel's Own Nuclear Posture Could Also Shift with a Nuclear-Armed Iran | p. 48 |
Conclusion | p. 53 |
Iranian Perceptions of and Policies Toward Israel | p. 55 |
Regime Ideology and Geostrategic Factors Shape Iranian Threat Perceptions of Israel | p. 57 |
Iran Views U.S. and Israeli Interests as Nearly Identical | p. 57 |
The Regime Views Israel as Undermining Its Stability | p. 60 |
The U.S. "Threat" Determines Iran's Military Posture Against Israel | p. 63 |
Iran Increasingly Views Israel as a Direct Geopolitical Threat | p. 65 |
Domestic Politics Are a Strong Driver of Iranian Policies Toward Israel | p. 70 |
Different Factions Have Varying Views of Israel | p. 70 |
The Ascent of the Principlists Has Led to Greater Rivalry | p. 73 |
A Future Regime May View Israel Differently | p. 77 |
Conclusion | p. 79 |
fconclusion and Recommendations | p. 81 |
U.S. Policies Toward Israel | p. 83 |
U.S. Polices Toward Iran | p. 86 |
Managing the Rivalry | p. 87 |
Bibliography | p. 89 |
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