Journeys Through Conflict Narratives and Lessons

by Alker, Hayward R.; Rupesinghe, Kumar; Anderlini, Sanam Naraghi; Garcia, Ed; Gounden, Vasu; Gurr, Ted Robert; Harff, Barbara; Khan, Maha; Khosla, Deepa; Lund, Michael S.; Nyheim, David; Padilla, Luis Alberto; Schmalberger, Thomas; Schmid, Alex P.; Solomon,

• ISBN13: 9780742510272
• ISBN10: 0742510271
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2001-08-28
• Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers

Summary

Journeys Through Conflict is the story of the Conflict Early Warning Systems (CEWS) project of the International Social Science Research Council. It relates the history of the project, presents its empirically grounded approach to anticipating violent conflict, and shows how the approach may be extended to other social science research arenas. Journeys Through Conflict projects alternate pathways to war and peace by a unique coding, graphing, and computational procedure that takes into account both contested conflict histories and future conflict resolutions.

Table of Contents

Abbreviations	vii
Preface: The Origins of the CEWS Vision	xii
Part I. Building Conflict Early Warning Systems
The Challenge of Developing Conflict Early Warning Systems: A Proposal	3	(29)
Hayward R. Alker
Ted Robert Gurr
Kumar Rupesinghe
The Double Design of the CEWS Project	32	(24)
Hayward R. Alker
Thomas Schmalberger
Peacemaking and Conflict Transformation in Guatemala	56	(47)
Luis Alberto Padilla
Part II. Comparative Studies of Prevention Successes and Failures
Could Humanitarian Crises Have Been Anticipated in Burundi, Rwanda, and Zaire?
A Comparative Study of Anticipatory Indicators	81	(22)
Barbara Harff
Escalatory Dynamics in the Moldova-Dniestr and Chechnya Conflicts	103	(76)
Olga A. Vorkunova
Why Are Some Ethnic Disputes Settled Peacefully, While Others Become Violent?
Comparing Slovakia, Macedonia, and Kosovo	128	(51)
Michael S. Lund
A Comparative Analysis of Conflict Resolution in Angola and South Africa	179	(17)
Vasu Gounden
Hussein Solomon
Nonconventional Diplomacy Experiences of NGOs and People's Participation in Selected Peace Processes	196	(44)
Sanam Naraghi Anderlini
Ed Garcia
Kumar Rupesinghe
Domestic and Transnational Strategies for Managing Separatist Conflicts Four Asian Cases	240	(51)
Ted Robert Gurr
Deepa Khosla
Part III: A Prototype Information System for Early Warning Networks
A Comparative Look at Early Warning Indicators: PIOOM, the State Failures Project, and CEWS Cases	291	(27)
Alex P. Schmid
A Synthetic Framework for Extensible Conflict Early Warning Information Systems	318	(36)
Thomas Schmalberger
Hayward R. Alker
Exploring Alternative Conflict Trajectories with the CEWS Explorer	354	(43)
Thomas Schmalberger
Hayward R. Alker
Part IV: Sharing Informational Resources within Global CEW Networks
A Review of Research and Practice in Early Warning and Early Response: Lessons Learned and Policy Issues	397	(24)
Kumar Rupesinghe
David Nyheim
Maha Khan
References	421	(20)
Index	441	(20)
About the Contributors	461