Judgment and Decision Making: An Interdisciplinary Reader

by Edited by Terry Connolly , Hal R. Arkes , Kenneth R. Hammond

• ISBN13: 9780521623551
• ISBN10: 0521623553
• Edition: 2nd
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2000-01-13
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Summary

Researchers in a growing number of fields - public policy, law, business, medicine, psychology, engineering, and others - are working to understand and improve human judgment and decision making. This book, which presupposes no formal training, brings together a selection of key articles in the area, with careful organization, introduction and commentaries. Issues involving medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, labor negotiations, risk, public policy, business strategy, eyewitnesses, jury decisions issues, and more are treated in this largely expanded volume, indicating the variety of problems - and scope in judgment and decision making. This is a revision of Arkes and Hammond's 1986 collection of papers on judgment and decision making. Updated and extended, the focus of this volume is interdisciplinary and applied. The papers selected are scientific in nature, but chosen specifically to appeal to the scholar, student and layperson alike.

Table of Contents

Series Preface	xi
Contributors	xiii
Editors' Preface to the Second Edition	xvii
General Introduction	1	(12)
Part I: Introduction and Overview	13	(70)
Multiattribute Evaluation	17	(18)
Ward Edwards
J. Robert Newman
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases	35	(18)
Amos Tversky
Daniel Kahneman
Coherence and Correspondence Theories in Judgment and Decision Making	53	(13)
Kenneth R. Hammond
Enhancing Diagnostic Decisions	66	(17)
John A. Swets
Part II: Applications in Public Policy	83	(62)
Illusions and Mirages in Public Policy	85	(12)
Richard H. Thaler
The Psychology of Sunk Cost	97	(17)
Hal R. Arkes
Catherine Blumer
Value-Focused Thinking about Strategic Decisions at BC Hydro	114	(17)
Ralph L. Keeney
Timothy L. McDaniels
Making Better Use of Scientific Knowledge: Separating Truth from Justice	131	(14)
Kenneth R. Hammond
Lewis O. Harvey, Jr.
Reid Hastie
Part III: Applications in Economics	145	(52)
Choices, Values, and Frames	147	(19)
Daniel Kahneman
Amos Tversky
Who Uses the Cost-Benefit Rules of Choice? Implications for the Normative Status of Microeconomic Theory	166	(17)
Richard P. Larrick
Richard E. Nisbett
James N. Morgan
Does Studying Economics Inhibit Cooperation?	183	(14)
Robert H. Frank
Thomas Gilovich
Dennis T. Regan
Part IV: Legal Applications	197	(44)
Leading Questions and the Eyewitness Report	199	(13)
Elizabeth F. Loftus
Explanation-Based Decision Making	212	(17)
Reid Hastie
Nancy Pennington
Decision Theory, Reasonable Doubt, and the Utility of Erroneous Acquittals	229	(12)
Terry Connolly
Part V: Medical Applications	241	(60)
Capturing Policy in Hearing-Aid Decisions by Audiologists	245	(14)
Janet Doyle
Shane A. Thomas
Physicians' Use of Probabilistic Information in a Real Clinical Setting	259	(13)
Jay J.J. Christensen-Szalanski
James B. Bushyhead
On the Elicitation of Preferences for Alternative Therapies	272	(9)
Barbara J. McNeil
Stephen G. Pauker
Harold C. Sox, Jr.
Amos Tversky
Enhanced Interpretation of Diagnostic Images	281	(20)
David J. Getty
Ronald M. Pickett
Carl J. D'Orsi
John A. Swets
Part VI: Experts	301	(48)
Reducing the Influence of Irrelevant Information on Experienced Decision Makers	305	(19)
Gary J. Gaeth
James Shanteau
Expert Judgment: Some Necessary Conditions and an Example	324	(12)
Hillel J. Einhorn
The Expert Witness in Psychology and Psychiatry	336	(13)
David Faust
Jay Ziskin
Part VII: Forecasting and Prediction	349	(70)
What Forecasts (Seem to) Mean	353	(25)
Baruch Fischhoff
Proper and Improper Linear Models	378	(17)
Robyn M. Dawes
Seven Components of Judgmental Forecasting Skill: Implications for Research and the Improvement of Forecasts	395	(24)
Thomas R. Stewart
Cynthia M. Lusk
PART VIII: Bargaining and Negotiation	419	(42)
The Judgment Policies of Negotiators and the Structure of Negotiation Problems	423	(19)
Jeryl L. Mumpower
The Effect of Agents and Mediators on Negotiation Outcomes	442	(19)
Max H. Bazerman
Margaret A. Neale
Kathleen L. Valley
Edward J. Zajac
Yong Min Kim
Part IX: Risk	461	(54)
Risk within Reason	465	(14)
Richard J. Zeckhauser
W. Kip Viscusi
Risk Perception and Communication	479	(21)
Baruch Fishhoff
Ann Bostrom
Marilyn Jacobs Quadrel
Perceived Risk, Trust, and Democracy	500	(15)
Paul Slovic
Part X: Research Methods	515	(56)
Value Elicitation: Is There Anything in There?	517	(27)
Baruch Fishhoff
The Overconfidence Phenomenon as a Consequence of Informal Experimenter-Guided Selection of Almanac Items	544	(12)
Peter Juslin
The A Priori Case Against Graphology: Methodological and Conceptual Issues	556	(15)
Maya Bar-Hillel
Gershon Ben-Shakhar
Part XI: Critiques and New Directions I	571	(106)
The Two Camps on Rationality	575	(17)
Helmut Jungermann
On Cognitive Illusions and Their Implications	592	(29)
Ward Edwards
Detlof von Winterfeldt
Reasoning the Fast and Frugal Way: Models of Bounded Rationality	621	(30)
Gerd Gigerenzer
Daniel G. Goldstein
Judgment and Decision Making in Social Context: Discourse Processes and Rational Inference	651	(26)
Denis J. Hilton
Ben R. Slugoski
Part XII: Critiques and New Directions II	677	(89)
Why We Still Use Our Heads Instead of Formulas: Toward an Integrative Approach	681	(31)
Benjamin Kleinmuntz
Nonconsequentialist Decisions	712	(21)
Jonathan Baron
Algebra and Process in the Modeling of Risky Choice	733	(22)
Lola L. Lopes
The Theory of Image Theory: An Examination of the Central Conceptual Structure	755	(11)
Terry Connolly
Lee Roy Beach
Author Index	766	(13)
Subject Index	779