Making Decisions

by Lindley, Dennis V.

• ISBN13: 9780471908081
• ISBN10: 0471908088
• Edition: 2nd
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 1991-08-26
• Publisher: Wiley

Summary

Making Decisions Second Edition D.V. Lindley Formerly Professor of Statistics, University College London This book looks at the problems involved in decision-making and argues that there is only one logical way to make a decision. By the use of three basic principles-assigning probabilities to the uncertain events; assigning utilities to the possible consequences; and choosing that decision that maximizes expected utility-decisions can be reached more efficiently and with less disagreement. It shows that only maximization of expected utility leads to sensible decision-making. This extensively revised second edition uses only elementary mathematics and will be of interest to all those concerned with decision-making and its consequences. Since his retirement from University College London in 1977 Professor Lindley has held visiting appointments at Berkeley, University of Florida, George Washington University, University of Sao Paulo, University of Wisconsin, Monash University, Australia, and University of Canterbury, New Zealand. Contents Decisions and uncertain events A numerical measure for uncertainty The laws of probability A numerical measure for consequences The utility of money Bayes' Theorem Value of information Decision trees The assessment of probabilities and utilities An appreciation Appendix Answers to exercises Glossary of Symbols Subject Index

Author Biography

DENNIS V. LINDLEY is Professor Emeritus of Statistics and the former Head of Department at University College London. He is a Guy Medalist in Gold of the Royal Statistical Society and a founding organizer and former president of the celebrated Valencia International Meetings on Bayesian Statistics. Professor Lindley has published over 100 scholarly articles and several books, including Making Decisions, also published by Wiley.

Table of Contents

Decisions and uncertain events	1	(13)
A numerical measure for uncertainty	13	(17)
The laws of probability	30	(23)
A numerical measure for consequences	53	(18)
The utility of money	71	(26)
Bayes' Theorem	97	(20)
Value of information	117	(22)
Decision trees	139	(21)
The assessment of probabilities and utilities	160	(19)
An appreciation	179	(16)
Appendix	195	(5)
Answers to exercises	200	(3)
Glossary of Symbols	203	(2)
Subject Index	205