Making Hard Decisions With Decision Tools

by Clemen,Robert T.

• ISBN13: 9780534365974
• ISBN10: 0534365973
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2000-06-23
• Publisher: BROOKS COLE

Summary

MAKING HARD DECISIONS WITH DECISIONTOOLS® is a special version of Bob Clemen's best-selling text, MAKING HARD DECISIONS. This straight-forward book teaches the fundamental ideas of decision analysis, without an overly technical explanation of the mathematics used in management science. This new version incorporates and implements the powerful DecisionTools® by Palisade Corporation, the world's leading toolkit for risk and decision analysis. At the end of each chapter, topics are illustrated with step-by-step instructions for DecisionTools®. This new version makes the text more useful and relevant to students to business and engineering.

Author Biography

Robert T. Clemen is a Professor at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University.

Table of Contents

Introduction to Decision Analysis	1	(18)
Section 1 Modeling Decisions	19	(228)
Elements of Decision Problems	21	(22)
Structuring Decisions	43	(68)
Making Choices	111	(63)
Sensitivity Analysis	174	(43)
Creativity and Decision Making	217	(30)
Section 2 Modeling Uncertainty	247	(278)
Probability Basics	249	(46)
Subjective Probability	295	(57)
Theoretical Probability Models	352	(46)
Using Data	398	(61)
Monte Carlo Simulation	459	(37)
Value of Information	496	(29)
Section 3 Modeling Preferences	525	(154)
Risk Attitudes	527	(44)
Utility Axioms, Paradoxes, and Implications	571	(27)
Conflicting Objectives I: Fundamental Objectives and the Additive Utility Function	598	(46)
Conflicting Objectives II: Multiattribute Utility Models with Interactions	644	(31)
Conclusion and Further Reading	675	(4)
Appendixes	679	(40)
Answers to Selected Exercises	719	(2)
Credits	721	(1)
Author Index	722	(3)
Subject Index	725