Managerial Statistics

by Albright, S. Christian; Winston, Wayne L.; Zappe, Christopher

• ISBN13: 9780534389314
• ISBN10: 0534389317
• Edition: CD
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2001-05-15
• Publisher: South-Western College Pub

Summary

This text is designed for the undergraduate or MBA level course in Business and Economic Statistics. The course can be found in schools of business or departments of statistics and mathematics. College algebra is a prerequisite. MANAGERIAL STATISTICS presents core statistical methods in a modern, unified spreadsheet-oriented approach with a focus on applications to business. This text illustrates, in a very hands-on, example-based approach, a variety of statistical methods to help students analyze data sets and uncover important information to aid decision making. This application focus, together with Excel spreadsheet add-ins, provides a complete learning resource for students.

Author Biography

S. Christian Albright Chris Albright got his B.S. degree in Mathematics from Stanford in 1968 and his Ph.D. in Operations Research from Stanford in 1972. Since then he has been teaching in the Operations and Decision Technologies Department in the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University Wayne Winston Wayne L. Winston is Professor of Operations and Decision Technologies in the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University, where he has taught since 1975. Wayne received his B.S. degree in mathematics from MIT and his Ph.D. degree in operations research from Yale Christopher J. Zappe Chris earned his B.A. in mathematics from DePauw University in 1983 and his M.B.A. and Ph.D. in decision sciences from Indiana University in 1987 and 1988, respectively. Since 1993, Chris has been serving as an associate professor in the Department of Management at Bucknell University, where he teaches undergraduate courses in business statistics, decision analysis, and computer simulation. Currently, Chris is a visiting faculty member in the Operations and Decision Technologies Department of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University in Bloomington

Table of Contents

Preface	xv
Introduction to Managerial Statistics	2	(22)
Introduction	4	(2)
An Overview of the Book	6	(5)
Excel versus Stand-alone Statistical Software	11	(1)
A Sampling of Examples	12	(9)
Conclusion	21	(3)
Case Study: Entertainment on a Cruise Ship	22	(2)
Describing Data: Graphs and Tables	24	(48)
Introduction	26	(1)
Basic Concepts	27	(4)
Frequency Tables and Histograms	31	(11)
Analyzing Relationships with Scatterplots	42	(4)
Time Series Plots	46	(5)
Exploring Data with Pivot Tables	51	(9)
Pivot Table Changes in Excel 2000	60	(3)
Conclusion	63	(9)
Case Study: Customer Arrivals at Bank98	70	(1)
Case Study: Automobile Production and Purchases	70	(1)
Case Study: Saving, Spending, and Social Climbing	71	(1)
Describing Data: Summary Measures	72	(52)
Introduction	74	(1)
Measures of Central Location	74	(2)
Quartiles and Percentiles	76	(1)
Minimum, Maximum, and Range	77	(1)
Measures of Variability: Variance and Standard Deviation	78	(4)
Obtaining Summary Measures with Add-Ins	82	(5)
Measures of Association: Covariance and Correlation	87	(4)
Describing Data Sets with Boxplots	91	(4)
Applying the Tools	95	(17)
Conclusion	112	(12)
Case Study: The Dow-Jones Averages	120	(2)
Case Study: Other Market Indexes	122	(2)
Getting the Right Data in Excel	124	(54)
Introduction	126	(1)
Cleaning the Data	127	(9)
Using Excel's AutoFilter	136	(7)
Complex Queries with the Advanced Filter	143	(7)
Importing External Data from Access	150	(12)
Creating Pivot Tables from External Data	162	(3)
Web Queries	165	(10)
Conclusion	175	(3)
Case Study: EduToys, Inc.	176	(2)
Probability and Probability Distributions	178	(64)
Introduction	180	(1)
Probability Essentials	181	(6)
Distribution of a Single Random Variable	187	(4)
An Introduction to Simulation	191	(5)
Subjective Versus Objective Probabilities	196	(2)
Derived Probability Distributions	198	(4)
Distribution of Two Random Variables: Scenario Approach	202	(7)
Distribution of Two Random Variables: Joint Probability Approach	209	(10)
Independent Random Variables	219	(5)
Weighted Sums of Random Variables	224	(7)
Conclusion	231	(11)
Case Study: Simpson's Paradox	240	(2)
Normal, Binomial, and Poisson Distributions	242	(56)
Introduction	244	(1)
The Normal Distribution	245	(9)
Applications of the Normal Distribution	254	(12)
The Binomial Distribution	266	(4)
Applications of the Binomial Distribution	270	(12)
The Poisson Distribution	282	(4)
Fitting a Probability Distribution to Data: BestFit	286	(3)
Conclusion	289	(9)
Case Study: EuroWatch Company	295	(1)
Case Study: Cashing in on the Lottery	296	(2)
Decision Making Under Uncertainty	298	(78)
Introduction	300	(1)
Elements of a Decision Analysis	301	(11)
The Precision Tree Add-In	312	(10)
Introduction to Influence Diagrams	322	(6)
More Single-Stage Examples	328	(10)
Multistage Decision Problems	338	(9)
Bayes' Rule	347	(8)
Incorporating Attitudes Toward Risk	355	(8)
Conclusion	363	(13)
Case Study: Jogger Shoe Company	374	(1)
Case Study: Westhouser Paper Company	374	(2)
Sampling and Sampling Distributions	376	(46)
Introduction	378	(1)
Sampling Terminology	378	(1)
Methods for Selecting Random Samples	379	(16)
An Introduction to Estimation	395	(17)
Conclusion	412	(10)
Case Study: Sampling from Videocassette Renters	421	(1)
Confidence Interval Estimation	422	(64)
Introduction	424	(1)
Sampling Distributions	425	(4)
Confidence Interval for a Mean	429	(5)
Confidence Interval for a Total	434	(3)
Confidence Interval for a Proporation	437	(5)
Confidence Interval for a Standard Deviation	442	(4)
Confidence Interval for the Difference Between Means	446	(12)
Confidence Interval for the Difference Between Proportions	458	(8)
Controlling Confidence Interval Length	466	(7)
Conclusion	473	(13)
Case Study: Harrigan University Admissions	480	(1)
Case Study: Employee Retention at D & Y	481	(1)
Case Study: Delivery Times at SnowPea Restaurant	482	(1)
Case Study: The Bodfish Lot Cruise	483	(3)
Hypothesis Testing	486	(60)
Introduction	488	(1)
Concepts in Hypothesis Testing	489	(6)
Hypothesis Tests for a Population Mean	495	(10)
Hypothesis Tests for Other Parameters	505	(21)
Tests for Normality	526	(6)
Chi-Square Test for Independence	532	(5)
Conclusion	537	(9)
Case Study: Regression Toward the Mean	542	(1)
Case Study: Baseball Statistics	543	(1)
Case Study: The Wichita Anti-Drunk Driving Advertising Campaign	543	(3)
Statistical Process Control	546	(62)
Introduction	549	(1)
Deming's 14 Points	550	(3)
Basic Ideas Behind Control Charts	553	(2)
Control Charts for Variables	555	(20)
Control Charts for Attributes	575	(8)
Process Capability	583	(11)
Conclusion	594	(14)
Case Study: The Lamination Process at Intergalactica	599	(2)
Case Study: Paper Production for Fornax at the Pluto Mill	601	(7)
Analysis of Variance and Experimental Design	608	(46)
Introduction	610	(3)
One-Way ANOVA	613	(12)
The Multiple Comparison Problem	625	(6)
Two-Way ANOVA	631	(12)
More About Experimental Design	643	(9)
Conclusion	652	(2)
Case Study: Krentz Appraisal Services	653	(1)
Regression Analysis: Estimating Relationships	654	(68)
Introduction	656	(2)
Scatterplots: Graphing Relationships	658	(9)
Correlations: Indicators of Linear Relationships	667	(2)
Simple Linear Regression	669	(10)
Multiple Regression	679	(6)
Modeling Possibilities	685	(26)
Validation of the Fit	711	(2)
Conclusion	713	(9)
Case Study: Quantity Discounts at the FirmChair Company	720	(1)
Case Study: Housing Price Structure in MidCity	720	(1)
Case Study: Demand for French Bread at Howie's	721	(1)
Case Study: Investing for Retirement	721	(1)
Regression Analysis: Statistical Inference	722	(75)
Introduction	724	(1)
The Statistical Model	725	(3)
Inferences About the Regression Coefficients	728	(6)
Multicollinearity	734	(4)
Include/Exclude Decisions	738	(5)
Stepwise Regression	743	(5)
A Test for the Overall Fit: The ANOVA Table	748	(4)
The Partial F Test	752	(9)
Outliers	761	(6)
Violations of Regression Assumptions	767	(4)
Prediction	771	(8)
Conclusion	779	(18)
Case Study: The Artsy Corporation	790	(1)
Case Study: Heating Oil at Dupree Fuels Company	791	(2)
Case Study: Developing a Flexible Budget at the Gunderson Plant	793	(1)
Case Study: Forecasting Overhead at Wagner Printers	794	(3)
Discriminant Analysis and Logistic Regression	797	(39)
Introduction	799	(1)
Discriminant Analysis	800	(19)
Logistic Regression	819	(15)
Choosing Between the Two Methods	834	(1)
Conclusion	834	(2)
Case Study: Understanding Cereal Brand Preferences	835	(1)
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting	836	(70)
Introduction	838	(1)
Forecasting Methods: An Overview	839	(4)
Random Series	843	(10)
The Random Walk Model	853	(4)
Autoregression Models	857	(6)
Regression-Based Trend Models	863	(7)
Moving Averages	870	(6)
Exponential Smoothing	876	(14)
Deseasonalizing: The Ratio-to-Moving-Averages Method	890	(4)
Estimating Seasonality with Regression	894	(5)
Econometric Models	899	(1)
Conclusion	900	(6)
Case Study: Arrivals at the Credit Union	904	(1)
Case Study: Forecasting Weekly Sales at Amanta	904	(2)
Statistical Reporting	906	(20)
Introduction	907	(1)
Suggestions for Good Statistical Report Writing	908	(5)
Examples of Statistical Reports	913	(12)
Conclusion	925	(1)
References	926	(3)
Index	929