Managing Risk: The Human Element

by Romney Beecher Duffey (Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL)); John Walton Saull (International Federation of Airworthines)

• ISBN13: 9780470714454
• ISBN10: 047071445X
• Format: eBook
• Copyright: 2009-01-01
• Publisher: Wiley

Summary

The human element is the principle cause of incidents and accidents in all technology industries; hence it is evident that an understanding of the interaction between humans and technology is crucial to the effective management of risk. Despite this, no tested model that explicitly and quantitatively includes the human element in risk prediction is currently available.Managing Risk: the Human Element combines descriptive and explanatory text with theoretical and mathematical analysis, offering important new concepts that can be used to improve the management of risk, trend analysis and prediction, and hence affect the accident rate in technological industries. It uses examples of major accidents to identify common causal factors, or "echoes", and argues that the use of specific experience parameters for each particular industry is vital to achieving a minimum error rate as defined by mathematical prediction. New ideas for the perception, calculation and prediction of risk are introduced, and safety management is covered in depth, including for rare events and "unknown" outcomesDiscusses applications to multiple industries including nuclear, aviation, medical, shipping, chemical, industrial, railway, offshore oil and gas; Shows consistency between learning for large systems and technologies with the psychological models of learning from error correction at the personal level; Offers the expertise of key leading industry figures involved in safety work in the civil aviation and nuclear engineering industries; Incorporates numerous fascinating case studies of key technological accidents.Managing Risk: the Human Element is an essential read for professional safety experts, human reliability experts and engineers in all technological industries, as well as risk analysts, corporate managers and statistical analysts. It is also of interest to professors, researchers and postgraduate students of reliability and safety engineering, and to experts in human performance."...congratulations on what appears to be, at a high level of review, a significant contribution to the literature...I have found much to be admired in (your) research" Mr. Joseph Fragola - Vice President of Valador Inc."The book is not only technically informative, but also attractive to all concerned readers and easy to be comprehended at various level of educational background. It is truly an excellent book ever written for the safety risk managers and analysis professionals in the engineering community, especially in the high reliability organizations..." Dr Feng Hsu, Head of Risk Assessment and Management, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center"I admire your courage in confronting your theoretical ideas with such diverse, ecologically valid data, and your success in capturing a major trend in them....I should add that I find all this quite inspiring . ...The idea that you need to find the right measure of accumulated experience and not just routinely used calendar time makes so much sense that it comes as a shock to realize that this is a new idea", Professor Stellan Ohlsson, Professor of Psychology, University of Illinois at Chicago

Table of Contents

About the Authors.Preface.Acknowledgements.Definitions of Risk And Risk Management.Introduction: The Art of Prediction and the Creation of Order.Technical Summary.1. The Universal Learning Curve.2. The Four Echoes.3. Predicting Rocket Risks and Refinery Explosions: Near Misses, Shuttles, Safety and Anti-Missile Defense Systems Effectiveness.4. The Probability of Human Error: Learning in Technological Systems.5. Estimating Mistakes: The Concept of Error States.6. Risk Assessment: Dynamic Events and Financial Risks.7. Safety and Risk Management Systems: The Fifth Echoes.8. Risk Perception: Searching for the Truth Among all the Numbers.9. I Must Be learningNomenclature.Appendix A. The 'Human Bathtub': Predicting the Future Risk.Appendix B. The Most Risk, or Maximum Likelihood, for the Outcome (Failure or Error) Rate While Learning.Appendix C. Transcripts of the Four Echoes.Appendix D. The Four Phases: Fuel Leak Leading to Gliding a Jet in to Land without any Engine Power.Appendix E. The Four Phases of a Midair Collision.Appendix F. Risk From the Number of Outcomes We Observe: How Many Are There?Appendix G: Mixing in a Tank: The D.D. Williamson Vessel Explosion.Appendix H. Never Happening Again.Appendix I. A Heuristic Organisational Risk Stability Creation.Appendix J. New Laws of Practice for Learning and Error Correction.Appendix K. Predicting Rocket Launch Reliability - Case Study.Illustrations.Index.