Managing Strategic Surprise: Lessons from Risk Management and Risk Assessment

by Edited by Paul Bracken , Ian Bremmer , David Gordon

• ISBN13: 9780521709606
• ISBN10: 0521709601
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2008-09-01
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Summary

The scope and applicability of risk management have expanded greatly over the past decade. Banks, corporations, and public agencies employ its new technologies both in their daily operations and long-term investments. It would be unimaginable today for a global bank to operate without such systems in place. Similarly, many areas of public management, from NASA to the Centers for Disease Control, have recast their programs using risk management strategies. It is particularly striking, therefore, that such thinking has failed to penetrate the field of national security policy. Venturing into uncharted waters, Managing Strategic Surprise brings together risk management experts and practitioners from different fields with internationally-recognized national security scholars to produce the first systematic inquiry into risk and its applications in national security. The contributors examine whether advance risk assessment and management techniques can be successfully applied to address contemporary national security challenges.

Table of Contents

List of figures	p. vii
List of tables	p. ix
List of contributors	p. x
Acknowledgements	p. xvii
Introduction	p. 1
How to build a warning system	p. 16
Intelligence management as risk management: the case of surprise attack	p. 43
Nuclear proliferation epidemiology: uncertainty, surprise, and risk management	p. 78
Precaution against terrorism	p. 110
Defense planning and risk management in the presence of deep uncertainty	p. 184
Managing energy security risks in a changing world	p. 228
What markets miss: political stability frameworks and country risk	p. 265
The risk of failed-state contagion	p. 287
Conclusion: managing strategic surprise	p. 302
Index	p. 311
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