Managing Strategic Surprise: Lessons from Risk Management and Risk Assessment

by Edited by Paul Bracken , Ian Bremmer , David Gordon

• ISBN13: 9780521883153
• ISBN10: 0521883156
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2008-09-01
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Summary

The scope and applicability of risk management have expanded greatly over the past decade. Banks, corporations, and public agencies employ its new technologies both in their daily operations and long-term investments. It would be unimaginable today for a global bank to operate without such systems in place. Similarly, many areas of public management, from NASA to the Centers for Disease Control, have recast their programs using risk management strategies. It is particularly striking, therefore, that such thinking has failed to penetrate the field of national security policy. Venturing into uncharted waters, Managing Strategic Surprise brings together risk management experts and practitioners from different fields with internationally-recognized national security scholars to produce the first systematic inquiry into risk and its applications in national security. The contributors examine whether advance risk assessment and management techniques can be successfully applied to address contemporary national security challenges.

Table of Contents

Introduction

How to build a warning system

Intelligence management as risk management: the case of surprise attack

Nuclear proliferation epidemiology: uncertainty, surprise, and risk management

Precaution against terrorism

Defense planning and risk management in the presence of deep uncertainty

Managing energy security risks in a changing world

What markets miss: political stability frameworks and country risk

The risk of failed state contagion

Conclusion: managing strategic surprise

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