Preface ix
Introduction xi
Chapter 1. Elementary Probabilities and an Introduction to Stochastic Processes 1
1.1. Measures and σ-algebras 1
1.2. Probability elements 5
1.2.1. Probabilities 5
1.2.2. Random variables 8
1.2.3. σ-algebra generated by a random variable 12
1.2.4. Random vectors 13
1.2.5. Convergence of sequences of random variables 15
1.3. Stochastic processes 16
1.4. Exercises 19
Chapter 2. Conditional Expectation 21
2.1. Conditional probability with respect to an event 21
2.2. Conditional expectation 24
2.2.1. Definitions 24
2.2.2. Properties of conditional expectation 28
2.3. Geometric interpretation 37
2.4. Conditional expectation and independence 38
2.5. Exercises 41
Chapter 3. Random Walks 45
3.1. Trajectories of the random walk 45
3.1.1. Definition 45
3.1.2. Graphical representation 47
3.1.3. Reflection principle 50
3.2. Asymptotic behavior 52
3.2.1. The Markov property and stationarity property 52
3.2.2. First return to0 55
3.3. The Gambler’s ruin 58
3.4. Exercises 60
Chapter 4. Martingales 63
4.1. Definition 63
4.2. Martingale transform 66
4.3. The Doob decomposition 67
4.4. Stopping time 69
4.5. Stopped martingales 71
4.6. Exercises 75
Chapter 5. Financial Markets 81
5.1. Financial assets 82
5.2. Investment strategies 82
5.3. Arbitrage 84
5.4. The Cox, Ross and Rubinstein model 86
5.5. Exercises 88
5.6. Practical work 90
5.6.1. Simulation of trajectories 90
5.6.2. Portfolio optimization 90
5.6.3. Portfolio optimization with withdrawal 91
Chapter 6. European Options 95
6.1. Definition 95
6.2. Complete markets 96
6.3. Valuation and hedging 97
6.4. Cox, Ross and Rubinstein model 98
6.4.1. Completeness 98
6.4.2. Value of European options 101
6.4.3. Hedging European options 103
6.5. Exercises 104
6.6. Practical work: Simulating the value of a call option 106
Chapter 7. American Options 107
7.1. Definition 107
7.2. Optimal stopping 109
7.2.1. Snell envelope and stopping time 109
7.2.2. Construction of optimal stopping times 111
7.3. Application to American options 114
7.4. The Cox, Ross and Rubinstein model 115
7.4.1. Value of American options 115
7.4.2. Hedging American options 116
7.5. Exercises 116
7.6. Practical work 117
Chapter 8. Solutions to Exercises and Practical Work 119
8.1. Solutions to exercises in Chapter 1 119
8.1.1. Exercise 1.1 119
8.1.2. Exercise 1.2 119
8.1.3. Exercise 1.3 120
8.1.4. Exercise 1.4 120
8.1.5. Exercise 1.5 121
8.1.6. Exercise 1.6 122
8.1.7. Exercise 1.7 123
8.1.8. Exercise 1.8 125
8.2. Solutions to exercises in Chapter 2 127
8.2.1. Exercise 2.1 127
8.2.2. Exercise 2.2 129
8.2.3. Exercise 2.3 131
8.2.4. Exercise 2.4 133
8.2.5. Exercise 2.5 133
8.2.6. Exercise 2.6 135
8.2.7. Exercise 2.7 135
8.2.8. Exercise 2.8 136
8.2.9. Exercise 2.9 138
8.2.10. Exercise 2.10 138
8.2.11. Exercise 2.11 141
8.2.12. Exercise 2.12 142
8.3. Solutions to exercises in Chapter 3 143
8.3.1. Exercise 3.1 143
8.3.2. Exercise 3.2 144
8.3.3. Exercise 3.3 144
8.3.4. Exercise 3.4 146
8.3.5. Exercise 3.5 147
8.3.6. Exercise 3.6 148
8.3.7. Exercise 3.7 148
8.3.8. Exercise 3.8 149
8.4. Solutions to exercises in Chapter 4 151
8.4.1. Exercise 4.1 151
8.4.2. Exercise 4.2 151
8.4.3. Exercise 4.3 152
8.4.4. Exercise 4.4 153
8.4.5. Exercise 4.5 154
8.4.6. Exercise 4.6 157
8.4.7. Exercise 4.7 160
8.4.8. Exercise 4.8 163
8.4.9. Exercise 4.9 164
8.4.10. Exercise 4.10 166
8.4.11. Exercise 4.11 167
8.5. Solutions to exercises in Chapter 5 170
8.5.1. Exercise 5.1 170
8.5.2. Exercise 5.2 171
8.5.3. Exercise 5.3 173
8.5.4. Exercise 5.4 174
8.5.5. Exercise 5.5 174
8.6. Solutions to the practical exercises in Chapter 5 175
8.6.1. Practical exercise 5.6.1 175
8.6.2. Practical exercise 5.6.2 176
8.6.3. Practical exercise 5.6.3 183
8.7. Solutions to exercises in Chapter 6 189
8.7.1. Exercise 6.1 189
8.7.2. Exercise 6.2 190
8.7.3. Exercise 6.3 191
8.7.4. Exercise 6.4 193
8.8. Solution to the practical exercise in Chapter 6 (section 6.6) 193
8.9. Solution to exercises in Chapter 7 195
8.9.1. Exercise 7.1 195
8.9.2. Exercise 7.2 196
8.9.3. Exercise 7.3 197
8.10. Solution to the practical exercise in Chapter 7 (section 7.6) 200
References 205
Index 207
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