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Mario Cerrato is a Senior Lecturer (Associate Professor) in Financial Economics at the University of Glasgow Business School. He holds a PhD in Financial Econometrics and an MSc in Economics from London Metropolitan University, and a first degree in Economics from the University of Salerno. Mario’s research interests are in the area of financial derivatives, security design and financial market microstructures. He has published in leading finance journals such as Journey of Money Credit and Banking, Journal of Banking and Finance, International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, and many others. He is generally involved in research collaboration with leading financial firms in the City of London and Wall Street.
Preface | p. xi |
An Introduction to Probability Theory | p. 1 |
The Notion of a Set and a Sample Space | p. 1 |
Sigma Algebras or Field | p. 2 |
Probability Measure and Probability Space | p. 2 |
Measurable Mapping | p. 3 |
Cumulative Distribution Functions | p. 4 |
Convergence in Distribution | p. 5 |
Random Variables | p. 5 |
Discrete Random Variables | p. 6 |
Example of Discrete Random Variables: The Binomial Distribution | p. 6 |
Hypergeometric Distribution | p. 7 |
Poisson Distribution | p. 8 |
Continuous Random Variables | p. 9 |
Uniform Distribution | p. 9 |
The Normal Distribution | p. 9 |
Change of Variable | p. 11 |
Exponential Distribution | p. 12 |
Gamma Distribution | p. 12 |
Measurable Function | p. 13 |
Cumulative Distribution Function and Probability Density Function | p. 13 |
Joint, Conditional and Marginal Distributions | p. 17 |
Expected Values of Random Variables and Moments of a Distribution | p. 19 |
The Bernoulli Law of Large Numbers | p. 20 |
Conditional Expectations | p. 22 |
Stochastic Processes | p. 25 |
Stochastic Processes | p. 25 |
Martingales Processes | p. 26 |
Brownian Motions | p. 29 |
Brownian Motion and the Reflection Principle | p. 32 |
Geometric Brownian Motions | p. 35 |
An Application of Brownian Motions | p. 36 |
Ito Calculus and Ito Integral | p. 37 |
Total Variation and Quadratic Variation of Differentiable Functions | p. 37 |
Quadratic Variation of Brownian Motions | p. 39 |
The Construction of the Ito Integral | p. 40 |
Properties of the Ito Integral | p. 41 |
The General Ito Stochastic Integral | p. 42 |
Properties of the General Ito Integral | p. 43 |
Construction of the Ito Integral with Respect to Semi-Martingale Integrators | p. 44 |
Quadratic Variation of a General Bounded Martingale | p. 46 |
Quadratic Variation of a General Bounded Martingale | p. 48 |
Ito Lemma and Ito Formula | p. 48 |
The Riemann-Stieljes Integral | p. 51 |
The Black and Scholes Economy | p. 55 |
Introduction | p. 55 |
Trading Strategies and Martingale Processes | p. 55 |
The Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing | p. 56 |
Martingale Measures | p. 58 |
Girsanov Theorem | p. 59 |
Risk-Neutral Measures | p. 62 |
The Randon-Nikodym Condition | p. 64 |
Geometric Brownian Motion | p. 65 |
The Black and Scholes Model | p. 67 |
Introduction | p. 67 |
The Black and Scholes Model | p. 67 |
The Black and Scholes Formula | p. 68 |
Black and Scholes in Practice | p. 70 |
The Feynman-Kac Formula | p. 71 |
The Kolmogorov Backward Equation | p. 73 |
Change of Numeraire | p. 74 |
Black and Scholes and the Greeks | p. 76 |
Monte Carlo Methods | p. 79 |
Introduction | p. 79 |
The Data Generating Process (DGP) and the Model | p. 79 |
Pricing European Options | p. 80 |
Variance Reduction Techniques | p. 81 |
Antithetic Variate Methods | p. 81 |
Control Variate Methods | p. 82 |
Common Random Numbers | p. 84 |
Importance Sampling | p. 84 |
Monte Carlo European Options | p. 85 |
Variance Reduction Techniques - First Part | p. 86 |
Monte Carlo 1 | p. 87 |
Monte Carlo 2 | p. 88 |
Monte Carlo Methods and American Options | p. 91 |
Introduction | p. 91 |
Pricing American Options | p. 91 |
Dynamic Programming Approach and American Option Pricing | p. 92 |
The Longstaff and Schwartz Least Squares Method | p. 93 |
The Glasserman and Yu Regression Later Method | p. 95 |
Upper and Lower Bounds and American Options | p. 96 |
Multiassets Simulation | p. 97 |
Pricing a Basket Option Using the Regression Methods | p. 98 |
American Option Pricing: The Dual Approach | p. 101 |
Introduction | p. 101 |
A General Framework for American Option Pricing | p. 101 |
A Simple Approach to Designing Optimal Martingales | p. 104 |
Optimal Martingales and American Option Pricing | p. 104 |
A Simple Algorithm for American Option Pricing | p. 105 |
Empirical Results | p. 106 |
Computing Upper Bounds | p. 107 |
Empirical Results | p. 109 |
p. 110 | |
Estimation of Greeks using Monte Carlo Methods | p. 113 |
Finite Difference Approximations | p. 113 |
Pathwise Derivatives Estimation | p. 114 |
Likelihood Ratio Method | p. 116 |
Discussion | p. 118 |
Pathwise Greeks using Monte Carlo | p. 118 |
Exotic Options | p. 121 |
Introduction | p. 121 |
Digital Options | p. 121 |
Asian Options | p. 122 |
Forward Start Options | p. 123 |
Barrier Options | p. 123 |
Hedging Barrier Options | p. 125 |
Digital Options | p. 126 |
Pricing and Hedging Exotic Options | p. 129 |
Introduction | p. 129 |
Monte Carlo Simulations and Asian Options | p. 129 |
Simulation of Greeks for Exotic Options | p. 130 |
Monte Carlo Simulations and Forward Start Options | p. 131 |
Simulation of the Greeks for Exotic Options | p. 132 |
Monte Carlo Simulations and Barrier Options | p. 132 |
The Price and the Delta of Forward Start Options | p. 134 |
The Price of Barrier Options Using Importance Sampling | p. 134 |
Stochastic Volatility Models | p. 137 |
Introduction | p. 137 |
The Model | p. 137 |
Square Root Diffusion Process | p. 138 |
The Heston Stochastic Volatility Model (HSVM) | p. 139 |
Processes with Jumps | p. 143 |
Application of the Euler Method to Solve SDEs | p. 143 |
Exact Simulation Under SV | p. 144 |
Exact Simulation of Greeks Under SV | p. 146 |
Stochastic Volatility Using the Heston Model | p. 147 |
Implied Volatility Models | p. 151 |
Introduction | p. 151 |
Modelling Implied Volatility | p. 152 |
Examples | p. 153 |
Local Volatility Models | p. 157 |
An Overview | p. 157 |
The Model | p. 159 |
Numerical Methods | p. 161 |
p. 164 | |
An Introduction to Interest Rate Modelling | p. 167 |
A General Framework | p. 167 |
Affine Models (AMs) | p. 169 |
The Vasicek Model | p. 171 |
The Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (CIR) Model | p. 173 |
The Hull and White (HW) Model | p. 174 |
The Black Formula and Bond Options | p. 175 |
Interest Rate Modelling | p. 177 |
Some Preliminary Definitions | p. 177 |
Interest Rate Caplets and Floorlets | p. 178 |
Forward Rates and Numeraire | p. 180 |
Libor Futures Contracts | p. 181 |
Martingale Measure | p. 183 |
Binomial and Finite Difference Methods | p. 185 |
The Binomial Model | p. 185 |
Expected Value and Variance in the Black and Scholes and Binomial Models | p. 186 |
The Cox-Ross-Rubinstein Model | p. 187 |
Finite Difference Methods | p. 188 |
The Binomial Method | p. 189 |
An Introduction to MATLAB | p. 191 |
What is MATLAB? | p. 191 |
Starting MATLAB | p. 191 |
Main Operations in MATLAB | p. 192 |
Vectors and Matrices | p. 192 |
Basic Matrix Operations | p. 194 |
Linear Algebra | p. 195 |
Basics of Polynomial Evaluations | p. 196 |
Graphing in MATLAB | p. 196 |
Several Graphs on One Plot | p. 197 |
Programming in MATLAB: Basic Loops | p. 199 |
M-File Functions | p. 200 |
MATLAB Applications in Risk Management | p. 200 |
MATLAB Programming: Application in Financial Economics | p. 202 |
Mortgage Backed Securities | p. 205 |
Introduction | p. 205 |
The Mortgage Industry | p. 206 |
The Mortgage Backed Security (MBS) Model | p. 207 |
The Term Structure Model | p. 208 |
Preliminary Numerical Example | p. 210 |
Dynamic Option Adjusted Spread | p. 210 |
Numerical Example | p. 212 |
Practical Numerical Examples | p. 213 |
Empirical Results | p. 214 |
The Pre-Payment Model | p. 215 |
Value at Risk | p. 217 |
Introduction | p. 217 |
Value at Risk (VaR) | p. 217 |
The Main Parameters of a VaR | p. 218 |
VaR Methodology | p. 219 |
Historical Simulations | p. 219 |
Variance-Covariance Method | p. 220 |
Monte Carlo Method | p. 221 |
Empirical Applications | p. 222 |
Historical Simulations | p. 222 |
Variance-Covariance Method | p. 223 |
Fat Tails and VaR | p. 224 |
Generalized Extreme Value and the Pareto Distribution | p. 224 |
Bibliography | p. 227 |
References | p. 229 |
Index | p. 233 |
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