Mathletics: How Gamblers, Managers, and Sports Enthusiasts Use Mathematics in Baseball, Basketball, and Football

by Winston, Wayne L.

• ISBN13: 9781400830916
• ISBN10: 1400830915
• Copyright: 2009-09-17
• Publisher: Princeton Univ Pr

Summary

Mathleticsis a remarkably entertaining book that shows readers how to use simple mathematics to analyze a range of statistical and probability-related questions in professional baseball, basketball, and football, and in sports gambling. How does professional baseball evaluate hitters? Is a singles hitter like Wade Boggs more valuable than a power hitter like David Ortiz? Should NFL teams pass or run more often on first downs? Could professional basketball have used statistics to expose the crooked referee Tim Donaghy? Does money buy performance in professional sports?InMathletics, Wayne Winston describes the mathematical methods that top coaches and managers use to evaluate players and improve team performance, and gives math enthusiasts the practical tools they need to enhance their understanding and enjoyment of their favorite sports--and maybe even gain the outside edge to winning bets.Mathleticsblends fun math problems with sports stories of actual games, teams, and players, along with personal anecdotes from Winston's work as a sports consultant. Winston uses easy-to-read tables and illustrations to illuminate the techniques and ideas he presents, and all the necessary math concepts--such as arithmetic, basic statistics and probability, and Monte Carlo simulations--are fully explained in the examples.After readingMathletics, you will understand why baseball teams should almost never bunt, why football overtime systems are unfair, why points, rebounds, and assists aren't enough to determine who's the NBA's best player--and much, much more.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. xi
Acknowledgments	p. xiii
List of Abbreviations	p. xv
Baseball	p. 1
Baseball's Pythagorean Theorem	p. 3
Who Had a Better Year, Nomar Garciaparra or Ichiro Suzuki?	p. 11
The Runs- Created Approach
Evaluating Hitters by Linear Weights	p. 17
Evaluating Hitters by Monte Carlo Simulation	p. 30
Evaluating Baseball Pitchers and Forecasting Future Pitcher Performance	p. 41
Baseball Decision- Making	p. 52
Evaluating Fielders	p. 64
Sabermetrics' Last Frontier
Player Win Averages	p. 71
The Value of Replacement Players	p. 79
Evaluating Trades and Fair Salary
Park Factors	p. 84
Streakiness in Sports	p. 87
The Platoon Effect	p. 102
Was Tony Perez a Great Clutch Hitter?	p. 106
Pitch Count and Pitcher Effectiveness	p. 110
Would Ted Williams Hit .406 Today?	p. 113
Was Joe DiMaggio's 56- Game Hitting Streak the Greatest Sports Record of All Time?	p. 116
Major League Equivalents	p. 123
Football	p. 125
What Makes NFL Teams Win?	p. 127
Who's Better, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning?	p. 132
Football States and Values	p. 138
Football Decision- Making 101	p. 143
A State and Value Analysis of the 2006 Super Bowl	p. 151
Champion Colts
If Passing Is Better Than Running, Why Don't	p. 158
Teams Always Pass?
Should We Go for a One- Point or Two- Point Conversion?	p. 165
To Give Up the Ball Is Better Than to Receive	p. 172
The Case of College Football Overtime
Why Is the NFL's Overtime System Fatally Flawed?	p. 175
How Valuable Are High Draft Picks in the NFL?	p. 180
Basketball	p. 185
Basketball Statistics 101	p. 187
The Four- Factor Model
Linear Weights for Evaluating NBA Players	p. 195
Adjusted_/_Player Ratings	p. 202
NBA Lineup Analysis	p. 224
Analyzing Team and Individual Matchups	p. 228
NBA Players' Salaries and the Draft	p. 233
Are NBA Officials Prejudiced?	p. 237
Are College Basketball Games Fixed?	p. 242
Did Tim Donaghy Fix NBA Games?	p. 244
End- Game Basketball Strategy	p. 248
Playing with Money, and Other Topics for Serious Sports Fans	p. 253
Sports Gambling 101	p. 255
Freakonomics Meets the Bookmaker	p. 262
Rating Sports Teams	p. 266
Which League Has Greater Parity, The NFL or the NBA?	p. 283
The Ratings Percentage Index (RPI)	p. 287
From Point Ratings to Probabilities	p. 290
Optimal Money Management	p. 298
The Kelly Growth Criteria
Ranking Great Sports Collapses	p. 303
Can Money Buy Success?	p. 311
Does Joey Crawford Hate the Spurs?	p. 319
Does Fatigue Make Cowards of Us All?	p. 321
The Case of NBA Back- to- Back Games and NFL Bye Weeks
Can the Bowl Championship Series Be Saved?	p. 324
Comparing Players from Different Eras	p. 331
Conclusions	p. 335
Index of Databases	p. 341
Annotated Bibliography	p. 343
Index	p. 353
Table of Contents provided by Publisher. All Rights Reserved.