Measures of Effectiveness for the Information-Age Navy The Effects of Network-Centric Operations on Combat Outcome

by Perry, Walter; Burton, Robert W.; Bracken, Jerome; Sullivan, Thomas; Mitchell, Jonathan

• ISBN13: 9780833031396
• ISBN10: 0833031392
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2002-06-19
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

Helping the Navy gauge the effectiveness of its information systems.

Table of Contents

Preface	iii
Figures	ix
Tables	xi
Summary	xiii
Acknowledgments	xxix
Acronyms and Terms	xxxi
Glossary of Mathematical Terms	xxxv
Introduction	1	(6)
NCW	2	(1)
Objectives	3	(2)
About This Report	5	(2)
A Future Maritime Conflict	7	(8)
The Enemy's Plan	7	(2)
Simultaneity	7	(1)
Capitalizing on Asymmetries	8	(1)
The Aggressor's Asymmetric Advantages	8	(1)
The Enemy View	9	(1)
Resistance to Annexation	9	(1)
Operational Objectives	10	(1)
The U.S. Role	10	(3)
U.S. Air and Sea Operations	11	(2)
The Basis for Analysis	13	(2)
Cruise Missile and Ballistic Missile Defense	15	(52)
Initiating Events	16	(2)
Measures of Performance and Force Effectiveness	16	(2)
Alternatives	18	(8)
Cruiser Operations	18	(1)
Platform-Centric Operations---Divided Duties	18	(4)
Network-Centric Operations---Shared COP	22	(2)
Network-Centric Operations---Cooperative Engagement	24	(2)
The Initial Attack Queue	26	(1)
Arrival Rates	26	(5)
The Attack Scenario	27	(1)
Additional Granularity	28	(3)
Allocation to Targets	31	(1)
Shooting Policy	31	(1)
Service	32	(1)
Survivability	33	(6)
Leakers	33	(2)
Saturation	35	(4)
The Terminal Defense Queue	39	(1)
Uncertainty and Knowledge	40	(6)
Uncertainty	41	(3)
Information Entropy	44	(1)
Knowledge	44	(2)
Collaboration	46	(6)
A Reliability Model	47	(5)
Complexity	52	(3)
A Logistics Model	53	(2)
Decisions	55	(10)
Platform-Centric: Divided Duties	56	(1)
Network-Centric: Shared COP	57	(3)
Network-Centric---Cooperative Engagement	60	(5)
Summing Up	65	(2)
The Measures	65	(1)
The Metrics	65	(2)
A Time-Critical Target	67	(36)
Initiating Events	68	(1)
Measures of Performance and Effectiveness	69	(1)
Alternatives	70	(3)
Platform-Centric Operations	70	(3)
Network-Centric Operations	73	(4)
Future Network-Centric Operations	74	(3)
Latencies	77	(3)
Platform-Centric Latencies	78	(1)
Network-Centric Latencies	79	(1)
Future Network-Centric Latencies	80	(1)
A Probability Model of Knowledge	80	(2)
Information Entropy	81	(1)
MOP	82	(13)
The Operational Network as a Graph	83	(2)
The n2 Phenomena	85	(1)
Too Much Information	86	(1)
Latency	86	(3)
Information Quality	89	(1)
Collaboration's Effect	90	(2)
Complexity	92	(2)
Effective Expected Latency	94	(1)
MOE	95	(5)
Detection and Target Acquisition	95	(3)
Kill Probability	98	(2)
Summing Up	100	(3)
The Measures	100	(1)
The Metrics	101	(2)
Exploratory Analysis Tool	103	(26)
Stochastic Input Variables	104	(2)
Exploratory Data Analysis	106	(1)
Expected Value	107	(3)
Expected Value of Distributions	108	(1)
Expected Value of an Input Variable	109	(1)
RAND EDA Tool	110	(1)
TCT Vignette Application	110	(12)
Phase I Analysis	110	(3)
Phase II Analysis	113	(3)
Analysis of Polling Options	116	(1)
Analysis of the Three Polling Cases	117	(2)
UCAV Analysis	119	(3)
Missile Defense Application	122	(7)
Phase I Analysis	122	(2)
Measures of Effectiveness	124	(1)
Observations	125	(4)
Conclusion	129	(6)
Representing Network-Centric Operations	130	(2)
Complexity	130	(1)
Collaboration	131	(1)
Information Theory	132	(1)
Exploratory Analysis and Spreadsheet Models	132	(1)
Next Steps	133	(2)
Appendix: Information Entropy	135	(12)
Bibliography	147