"Econometrics textbooks see their subject as a set of techniques; Magnus and Morgan see it as a set of practices. A combination of controlled experiment and anthropology of science, Methodology and Tacit Knowledge gives a rare inside view of how econometricians work, why econometrics is an art and not a set of simple recipes, and why, like all artists, econometricians differ in their techniques and finished works. This is economic methodology at its best." Kevin Hoover, University of California, Davis "The tacit knowledge experiment was a highly commendable initiative. Its exploration of the theme of how knowledge is acquired and used in applied econometrics is unique and produced some fascinating insights into this process." Adrian Pagan, Australian National University "It is rare, perhaps unique, to find leading empirical economists face the prospect of modelling the same phenomena, with the same data within the same limited time frame. A valuable and illuminating experiment in comparative research methodologies, made all the more provocative when compared to the excellent original study by Tobin." Richard Blundell, University College London This book will be of considerable interest to economists and to econometricians concerned about the methodology of their own discipline, and will provide valuable material for researchers in science studies and for teachers of econometrics.

Jan R. Magnus is the author of Methodology and Tacit Knowledge: Two Experiments in Econometrics, published by Wiley.

Mary S. Morgan FBA FRDAAS, is Professor of the History of Economics in the London School of Economics since 1999. She graduated from the London School of Economics a Bachelor of Science in Economics in 1978 and a Doctor of Philosophy in 1984.

Acknowledgements

vii

List of Contributors

ix

Introduction: Applied Econometrics and Design of Two Experiments

1

(10)

Jan R. Magnus

Mary S. Morgan

Part I The Field Trial Experiment

11

(298)

Organization of the Field Trial Experiment

13

(10)

Jan R. Magnus

Mary S. Morgan

A Statistical Demand Function for Food in the USA

23

(44)

James Tobin

On the Correspondence Between Individual and Aggregate Food Consumption Functions: Evidence from the USA and the Netherlands

67

(32)

Heather M. Anderson

Farshid Vahid

The Demand for Food in the United States and the Netherlands: a Systems Approach with the CBS Model

99

(24)

Hans van Driel

Venuta Nadall

Kees Zeelenberg

Revisiting Tobin's 1950 Study of Food Expenditure

123

(30)

Edward E. Leamer

Empirical Econometric Modelling of Food Consumption Using a New Informational Complexity Approach

153

(30)

Peter M. Bearse

Hamparsum Bozdogan

Alan M. Schlottmann

A Comparative Study of Modelling the Demand for Food in the United States and the Netherlands

183

(22)

Haiyan Song

Xiaming Liu

Peter Romilly

Statistical Demand Functions for Food in the USA and the Netherlands

205

(32)

Denis de Crombrugghe

Franz C. Palm

Jean-Pierre Urbain

The Dynamics and Statics of Food Consumption: Tobin Revisited

237

(14)

Rune Hoglund

Markus Jantti

Johan Knif

Leif Nordberg

Gunnar Rosenqvist

Tobin's Study on the Demand of Food in the US Revisited: an Examination of the Issue of Pooling Information from Budget Studies and Time Series

251

(14)

G. S. Maddala

Shaowen Wu

Yong Yin

My 1950 Food Demand Study in Retrospect

265

(4)

James Tobin

Comparative Assessments of the Field Trial Experiment

269

(16)

Anton P. Barten

J. S. Cramer

M. Hashem Pesaran

Peter Schmidt

Michael R. Wickens

Analysis of the Field Trial Experiment

285

(16)

Jan R. Magnus

Wiebe K. Siegert

Lessons from the Field Trial Experiment

301

(8)

Jan R. Magnus

Mary S. Morgan

Part II The Tacit Knowledge Experiment

309

(2)

Organization of the Tacit Knowledge Experiment

311

(4)

Jan R. Magnus

Mary S. Morgan

An Application of Three Econometric Methodologies to the Estimation of the Income Elasticity of Food Demand

315

(26)

Wiebe K. Siegert

An Econometric Analysis of US Food Expenditure, 1931-1989

341

(22)

David F. Hendry

Is this How I Look?

363

(6)

Edward E. Leamer

The Tilburg Experiments: Impressions of a Drop-Out

369

(6)

Adrian R. Pagan

Lessons from the Tacit Knowledge Experiment

375

(10)

Jan R. Magnus

Mary S. Morgan

Part III The Data

Description of the US Data

385

(16)

Jan R. Magnus

Mary S. Morgan

Description of the Dutch Data

401

Jan R. Magnus

Mary S. Morgan

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