Middle East Strategic Balance, 2003-2004

by Feldman, Shai; Shapir, Yiftah S

• ISBN13: 9781845190026
• ISBN10: 1845190025
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2004-09-20
• Publisher: Liverpool University Press

Summary

The Middle East Strategic Balance [formerly the 'Middle East Military Balance'] is prepared annually by the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, Tel Aviv University, to provide an authoritative and indispensable guide to strategic developments and military capabilities in the Middle East. Governments, the media, and researchers pay close attention to the data and analysis, which offer a comprehensive insightful assessment of the complex Middle East strategic environment. The '2003-2004 Strategic Balance' provides an objective analysis of the strategic factors and events shaping the region through a rich collection of essays, together with a country by country overview of the region's military forces, including the major changes to the orders of battle, and a survey of personnel, weapons and equipment holdings, non-conventional capabilities and ballistic missiles, and other key components of military force structures. Published in association with the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies.

Table of Contents

Preface	viii
Introduction	1	(4)
PART I Middle East Strategic Assessment
The Middle East in Transition: An Overview	5	(32)
Ephraim Kam
United States Involvement	5	(4)
The Evolving Reality in Iraq	9	(4)
Regional Ramifications of the Iraq War	13	(5)
Pressures on Iran	18	(3)
The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict	21	(5)
The Stability of Middle East Regimes	26	(7)
Israel in the Region at Large	33	(4)
The Middle East on the Global Agenda	37	(8)
Mark A. Heller
The Western Agenda	39	(2)
The Greater Middle East Initiative	41	(4)
International Terrorism in the Shadow of the Iraq War	45	(14)
Yoram Schweitzer
The Spread of Sucide Terrorism	46	(2)
The Low Intensity Conflict in Iraq	48	(3)
Al-Qaeda and its Affiliates Beyond Iraq	51	(3)
Successes and Challenges in the War against al-Qaeda	54	(5)
WMD Proliferation Trends and Strategies of Control	59	(18)
Emily B. Landau
Ram Erez
New Proliferation Concerns	60	(2)
State-by-State Review	62	(10)
Reflections on Proliferation	72	(5)
Challenges Facing Middle East Economies	77	(18)
Paul Rivlin
Principal Economic Trends	77	(5)
Economies in Brief	82	(11)
Underlying Problems in Arab Economies	93	(2)
The Egyptian Armed Forces	95	(14)
Shiomo Brom
Yiftah S. Shapir
The Order-of-Battle	95	(4)
The Balance of Power with Israel	99	(8)
Is a Military Confrontation Realistic?	107	(2)
Israel at a Strategic Crossroads	109	(15)
Shai Feldman
Israel's International Standing	110	(2)
The Palestinian Challenge	112	(2)
Israel's Unilateral Measures	114	(4)
Marketing the Disengagement Plan	118	(3)
An Interim Assessment	121	(3)
The Intifada: The Dynamics of an Ongoing Crisis	124	(21)
Anat Kurz
The Dynamics of Violence	124	(2)
Undermining the PA's Stature	126	(4)
The Politics of Violence: For and Against a Hudna	130	(7)
The Challenge of Disengagement	137	(2)
Looking Forward	139	(6)
The 2004 Strategic Balance: A Net Assessment	145	(117)
Meir Elran
The General Strategic Balance	146	(3)
The Military Balance	149	(4)
The Sub-Conventional Security Balance	153	(2)
Israel's Vantage	155	(4)
Documents on Israel's Disengagement Plan
Ariel Sharon's Four-Stage Disengagement Plan, May 28, 2004	159	(6)
President Bush's Letter to Israeli Prime Minister Sharon, April 14, 2004	165	(2)
Letter from Dov Weisglass to Dr. Condoleeza Rice	167	(4)
PART II Military Forces
Introductory Note	171	(4)
Review of Armed Forces
Algeria	175	(3)
Bahrain	178	(3)
Egypt	181	(4)
Iran	185	(4)
Iraq	189	(4)
Israel	193	(4)
Jordan	197	(3)
Kuwait	200	(3)
Lebanon	203	(3)
Libya	206	(3)
Morocco	209	(3)
Oman	212	(3)
Palestinian Authority	215	(3)
Qatar	218	(3)
Saudi Arabia	221	(4)
Sudan	225	(3)
Syria	228	(3)
Tunisia	231	(2)
Turkey	233	(4)
United Arab Emirates	237	(4)
Yemen	241	(5)
Tables
The Middle East Military Balance at a Glance	246	(2)
Weapons of Mass Destruction	248	(1)
Space Assets	249	(1)
Charts
The Eastern Mediterranean Military Forces	250	(4)
The Persian Gulf Military Forces	254	(4)
The North African Military Forces	258	(4)
Contributors	262