Modeling and Simulation for Analyzing Global Events

by John A. Sokolowski (Old Dominion University); Catherine M. Banks (Old Dominion University)

• ISBN13: 9780470486986
• ISBN10: 0470486988
• Format: eBook
• Copyright: 2009-07-01
• Publisher: Wiley

Summary

one-of-a-kind introduction to the theory and application of modeling and simulation techniques in the realm of international studiesModeling and Simulation for Analyzing Global Events provides an orientation to the theory and application of modeling and simulation techniques in social science disciplines. This book guides readers in developing quantitative and numeric representations of real-world events based on qualitative analysis. With an emphasis on gathering and mapping empirical data, the authors detail the steps needed for accurately analyzing global events and outline the selection and construction of the best model for understanding the event)s data.Providing a theoretical foundation while also illustrating modern examples, the book contains three parts: Advancing Global Studies-introduces the what, when, and why of modeling and simulation and also explores its brief history, various uses, and some of the advantages and disadvantages of modeling and simulation in problem solving. In addition, the differences in qualitative and quantitative research methods, mapping data, and conducting model validation are also discussed. Modeling Paradigms-examines various methods of modeling including system dynamics, agent-based modeling, social network modeling, and game theory. This section also explores the theory and construction of these modeling paradigms, the fundamentals for their application, and various contexts for their use. Modeling Global Events-applies the modeling paradigms to four real-world events that are representative of several fundamental areas of social science studies: internal commotion within an anarchic state, a multi-layered study of the Solidarity movement in Poland, uni-lateral military intervention, and the issue of compellence and deterrence during a national security crisis.Modeling and Simulation for Analyzing Global Events is an excellent book for statistics, engineering, computer science, economics, and social sciences courses on modeling and simulation at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also an insightful reference for professionals who would like to develop modeling and simulation skills for analyzing and communicating human behavior observed in real-world events and complex global case studies.

Table of Contents

Preface

Principles of Modeling and Simulation: Advancing Global Studies

Modeling and Simulation: What, When, and Why

Introduction

An Overview of Modeling and Simulation

A Brief History of Modeling and Simulation

Why Use Modeling and Simulation

Conclusions

Key Terms

References

Further Reading

Research Methodologies for Modeling Global Events

Introduction

Global Events and the Social Sciences

Qualitative and Quantitative Research

Modeling and Simulation of Global Events

Mapping Data: A Suggested Methodology

Model Validation

Conclusions

Key Terms

References

Modeling Paradigms

System Dynamics

Introduction

Dynamic System Behavior

Building Blocks of System Dynamics Models

Conclusions

Key Terms

References

Agent-Based Modeling and Social Networks

Introduction

Agent-Based Models: Description and Definition

Social Networks

Building an Agent-Based Model

Conclusions

Key Terms

References

Game Theory

Introduction

Fundamentals of Game Theory

Types of Games

Conclusions

Key Terms

References

Modeling Global Events

Case Study: Colombia-A Country Study on Insurgency

Introduction

Developing the Research Question and Methodology

Background: Qualitative Research

Mapping Qualitative to Quantitative

System Dynamics

Responding to the Research Question

Key Terms

References

Case Study Bibliography

Case Study: The Polish Solidarity Movement-Laying the Foundation for the Collapse of Soviet Communism

Introduction

Developing the Research Question and Methodology

Background: Qualitative Research

Measuring Agents and Environments: Stimuli and Actions

Modeling Human Behavior with Agents

Responding to the Research Question

Conclusions

Key Terms

References

Case Study Bibliography

Case Study: Vietnam-Johnson's War, 1963-1965

Introduction

Developing the Research Question and Methodology

Background: Qualitative Research

Analyzing the Social Network Structures

Social Network Aspects of Human Behavior Modeling

Agent-Based Model Development

Responding to the Research Question

Key Terms

References

Case Study Bibliography

Case Study: Cuban Missile Crisis-A National Security Emergency

Introduction

Developing the Research Question and Methodology

Background: Qualitative Research

Evaluating Behaviors

Game Theory

Responding to the Research Question

Key Terms

References

Case Study Bibliography

Index

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