Modelling Regional Scenarios for the Englarged Europe

by Capello, Roberta; Camagni, Roberto; Chizzolini, Barbara; Fratesi, Ugo

• ISBN13: 9783540747369
• ISBN10: 3540747362
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2008-03-05
• Publisher: Springer Verlag

Summary

The aim of this book is to tackle the question of what the European territory will look like over the next fifteen years by providing quali-quantitative territorial scenarios for the enlarged Europe, under different assumptions on future globalisation strategies of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and East and West European countries. The approach is as neutral as possible vis-??-vis the results, leaving to a new forecasting model, the MASST model, built by the authors, to produce the tendencies and behavioural paths of regional GDP and population growth in each individual European region under alternative assumptions on the competitiveness strategies of different blocks of countries. The results ar accompanied by strong policy messages intended to encourage long-term strategic thinking among a wide range of actors, scientists and policy makers in response to the risks and opportunities that the European territory will face.

Table of Contents

From Forecasts to Quantitative Foresights: Territorial Scenarios for an Enlarged Europe	p. 1
The Interest in a Forecasting Regional Modelling Exercise	p. 1
From Forecasts to Quantitative Foresights Through Inspection Into the Future	p. 2
The MASST Model: A Generative Forecasting Model of Regional Growth	p. 5
The Choice of the Scenarios	p. 6
Structure of the Book	p. 9
Theoretical and Empirical Underpinnings
Space and Theoretical Approaches to Regional Growth	p. 13
Introduction	p. 13
Space as a Container of Growth	p. 15
The Logic of the Approach	p. 15
Regional Growth Theories: Factor Endowment and Productive Specialisation	p. 16
Regional Development Theories: Social Overhead Capital, New Technologies and Accessibility	p. 18
Space as a Resource of Growth	p. 22
The Logic of the Approach	p. 22
Local Development Theories: Territorial Externalities	p. 23
Regional Growth Theories: Stylised Increasing Returns	p. 26
National and Regional Growth: The Generative Versus Competitive Approach	p. 28
The Theoretical Approach in the MASST Model	p. 29
Conclusions	p. 31
Regional Competitiveness: Towards a Concept of Territorial Capital	p. 33
The Resurgence of Supply-Oriented Approaches	p. 33
Towards a Cognitive Approach to Territorial Development: the Concept of Territorial Capital	p. 35
Territorial Capital: A Theoretical Taxonomy	p. 37
Public Goods and Resources	p. 39
Intermediate, Mixed-Rivalry Tangible Goods	p. 39
Private Fixed Capital and Toll Goods	p. 40
Social Capital	p. 40
Relational Capital	p. 43
Human Capital	p. 44
Agglomeration Economies, Connectivity and Receptivity	p. 44
Cooperation Networks	p. 45
Relational Private Services	p. 45
Conclusions	p. 46
Space and Empirical Approaches to Regional Growth	p. 49
Introduction	p. 49
Traditional A-Spatial Techniques	p. 51
The Logic Behind the Approach	p. 51
Traditional Techniques and Space	p. 52
Traditional Techniques and Territory	p. 56
Spatial Techniques	p. 59
The Logic Behind the Approach	p. 59
Spatial Techniques and Space	p. 60
Spatial Techniques and Territory	p. 64
Future Developments	p. 64
The Measurement of Space in the MASST Model	p. 66
Conclusions	p. 66
National and Regional Econometric Models	p. 69
Introduction	p. 69
Macroeconometric Models	p. 70
Regional and Multiregional Models	p. 74
The Top-Down Regional Satellite Models	p. 74
The Bottom-Up Interlinked Regional Models	p. 75
Top-Down Versus Bottom-Up Models	p. 77
The Recent Evolution of Regional Econometric Modelling	p. 79
National and Regional Econometric Models and MASST	p. 81
Conclusions	p. 82
Conceptual and Methodological Specifications
The MASST Model: A Generative Forecasting Model of Regional Growth	p. 85
Introduction	p. 85
The Theoretical Specifications of MASST	p. 86
The Structure of MASST	p. 89
The General Structure of the Econometric Model	p. 89
The National Sub-Model	p. 91
The Regional Sub-Model	p. 93
The Simulation Algorithm: the Time Structure	p. 94
Technical Specifications of the Model	p. 96
Conclusions	p. 98
The Estimation Procedure: Data and Results	p. 99
Introduction	p. 99
The National and Regional Datasets	p. 100
Sources and Structure of the Database	p. 100
Description of the Data	p. 101
The Econometric Methodology	p. 108
The Estimations of the National Sub-Model	p. 108
The Regional Estimations	p. 112
Conclusions	p. 121
The Simulation Procedure: The Algorithm, the Target Variables and the Stability of the Model	p. 123
Introduction	p. 123
The Simulation Algorithm	p. 124
Initial Conditions and a Classification of Variables in MASST	p. 126
The Interaction of the National and Regional Components in the Simulation Algorithm	p. 128
Target Values and the Adjustment Rule for Exogenous and Policy Variables	p. 130
Model Testing	p. 136
The Benchmark Simulation and the Dynamic Properties of MASST	p. 136
Experiments	p. 140
The Model's Sensitivity to the Estimated Values of the Parameters	p. 146
Conclusions	p. 149
Values of the Policy Variables Used in the Benchmark Simulation and in the Experiments	p. 150
Scenarios for the Enlarged Europe: Regional Quantitative Foresights
Driving Forces of Change: The Baseline Scenario	p. 155
Introduction	p. 155
Driving Forces of Change	p. 156
Economic Driving Forces	p. 158
European Strategies in the Management of Structural Funds	p. 160
European Infrastructure Policy Choices	p. 160
Socio-Demographic Trends	p. 161
Energy Source Policy	p. 161
Technological Diffusion Strategies	p. 162
Quantitative Assumptions Behind the Baseline Scenario	p. 162
Results of the Territorial Baseline Scenario	p. 164
Regional Growth in Fifteen Years	p. 164
Converging or Diverging Trends: Winners and Losers	p. 165
Regional Components of Growth	p. 169
Conclusions	p. 174
Quantitative Assumptions and Target Values for Exogenous Variables in the Baseline Scenario	p. 176
Global Challenges and European Strategies: Alternative Scenarios	p. 179
Introduction	p. 179
The Three Dimensions and the Scenario Cube	p. 180
Description of the Four Scenarios	p. 183
A Competitive Europe in an Integrated World	p. 188
A Defensive Europe in a Price-Competitive World	p. 191
A Dual Europe in an Integrated World	p. 194
A Dual Europe in a Price-Competitive World	p. 196
The Quantitative Assumptions	p. 196
Moving from Qualitative Assumptions to Quantitative Levers of the Model	p. 196
The Quantitative Assumptions of the Four Scenarios	p. 199
Conclusions	p. 206
Absolute Values of the Target Variables in Each Scenario	p. 207
Territorial Images of the Future: The Quantitative Foresights Results	p. 211
Introduction	p. 211
An Aggregate Perspective on the Four European Development Scenarios	p. 212
European Growth Rate Differentials	p. 212
National Growth Rates and National Per Capita Income Differentials	p. 213
National Winners and Losers with Respect to the Baseline Scenario	p. 216
A Territorial Image of a Competitive Europe in an Integrated World (Scenario A)	p. 219
European Regional Performances and Disparities in 2015	p. 219
European Population in 2015	p. 225
A Territorial Image of a Defensive Europe in a Price-Competitive World (Scenario B)	p. 226
European Regional Performances and Disparities in 2015	p. 226
European Population in 2015	p. 230
A Territorial Image of a Dual Europe in an Integrated World (Scenario C)	p. 232
European Regional Performances and Disparities in 2015	p. 232
European Population in 2015	p. 236
A Territorial Image of a Dual Europe in a Price-Competitive World (Scenario D)	p. 238
European Regional Performances and Disparities in 2015	p. 238
European Population in 2015	p. 272
A Comparison Between Two Extreme Scenarios	p. 273
A Dual Europe Facing Different World Competitiveness Strategies	p. 277
Conclusions	p. 280
Towards a Conclusion: Regional and Territorial Policy Recommendations	p. 283
Introduction	p. 283
The Impact of National Performance and Trends on Regions	p. 283
The Impact of Macroeconomic and Structural Policies on Regions	p. 285
The Persistence and Widening of Inter-Regional Disparities: The Rationale for Regional Policies	p. 287
Towards Renewed Spatial Policies: Goals, Principles and Tools	p. 295
Territorial Capital at the Crossroads of Regional Policies and Planning	p. 298
Territorial Development Policies and the European Model of Society	p. 302
Conclusions	p. 305
Bibliographical References	p. 307
Authors	p. 321
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