Modelling Urban Development with Geographical Information Systems and Cellular Automata

by Liu; Yan

• ISBN13: 9781420059892
• ISBN10: 1420059890
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2008-12-10
• Publisher: CRC Press

Summary

Urban development and the migration of population from rural to urban areas are impacting prime agricultural land and natural landscapes, particularly in the less developed countries. These phenomena will persist and require serious study by those monitoring global environmental change. Of the models developed for this task, the most promising and rapidly developing ones take advantage of new Geographical Information System (GIS) technology.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. xi
The Author	p. xiii
Introduction to Urban Development Modelling	p. 1
Models and Modelling	p. 2
The Need for Models	p. 2
Characteristics of Models	p. 3
Types of Models	p. 4
Procedures of Model Building	p. 6
The Pitfalls	p. 7
Theoretical Approaches of Urban Development Modelling	p. 7
Urban Ecological Approach	p. 9
Social Physical Approach	p. 10
Neoclassical Approach	p. 11
Behavioural Approach	p. 13
Systems Approach	p. 14
Contemporary Practices of Urban Development Modelling	p. 16
Cities as Self-Organising Systems	p. 16
Fuzzy Set and Fuzzy Logic	p. 19
GIS and Urban Modelling	p. 19
Problems and Prospects	p. 20
Theoretical Problems	p. 20
Technical Problems	p. 22
Future Prospects	p. 22
Conclusion	p. 23
Cellular Automata and Its Application in Urban Modelling	p. 25
Cellular Automata Modelling	p. 25
Cellular Automata Modelling: A Game	p. 25
A Simple Cellular Automata Model	p. 27
Five Basic Elements of a Cellular Automaton	p. 28
Mathematical Representation of a Cellular Automaton	p. 29
The Complex Features of Cellular Automata	p. 29
Cellular Automata in Urban Modelling	p. 30
An Urban Cellular Automata	p. 30
Advantages of Cellular Automata for Urban Modelling	p. 33
Simplicity in Model Construction	p. 34
Modelling Spatial Dynamics to Support "What If" Experiments	p. 34
A "Natural Affinity" with Raster GIS	p. 35
Early Applications of Cellular Automata in Urban Modelling	p. 35
Contemporary Cellular Automata-Based Urban Modelling Practices	p. 38
Space Tessellation: From Regular to Irregular Spatial Units	p. 38
Regular Cells of Small or Large Resolution	p. 38
Using Irregular Spatial Units	p. 40
From Binary and Multiple to Continuous Cell States	p. 41
Neighbourhood Definitions	p. 41
"Action-at-a-Distance" Neighbourhood	p. 41
Neighbourhood Size	p. 42
Neighbourhood Type	p. 43
Irregular Neighbourhood	p. 44
Sensitivity Analysis	p. 44
Variation in Transition Rules	p. 45
Constrained Cellular Automata	p. 45
The SLEUTH Model	p. 46
Fuzzy Constrained Cellular Automata Models	p. 47
Transition Rules Derived from Other Models	p. 48
Artificial Neural Network (ANN)-Based Cellular Automata Models	p. 49
Stochastic Cellular Automata Model	p. 50
Modelling Time	p. 51
Conclusion	p. 51
Developing a Fuzzy Constrained Cellular Automata Model of Urban Development	p. 53
Urban Development and Fuzzy Sets	p. 53
Fuzzy Representation of Geographical Boundaries	p. 54
Fuzzy Set Theory	p. 55
Definition of Fuzzy Set	p. 55
Membership Function	p. 56
Fuzzy Operation	p. 58
Urban Development as a Fuzzy Process	p. 59
Defining Urban Areas	p. 59
Fuzzy Set Approach in Defining Urban Areas	p. 60
Fuzzy Logic Control in Cellular Automata-Based Urban Modelling	p. 62
Linguistic Variables and Fuzzy Logic	p. 63
Linguistic Variables	p. 63
Basic Logic Terms and Reasoning	p. 64
Fuzzy Logic	p. 66
Fuzzy Logic Control	p. 67
Fuzzy Logic Control in Cellular Automata-Based Urban Modelling	p. 69
Developing Fuzzy Constrained Cellular Automata for Urban Modelling	p. 70
The Temporal Process of Urban Development	p. 70
The Speed of Urban Development as a Fuzzy Set	p. 73
The Fuzzy Transition Rules and Inferencing	p. 76
Primary Transition Rules	p. 76
Rule Firing Threshold	p. 77
Secondary Transition Rules	p. 79
The Defuzzification Process	p. 82
The Defuzzification Process	p. 83
Conclusion	p. 83
Sydney: Urban Development and Visualisation	p. 85
Sydney's Urban Development and Planning	p. 85
Historical Threads of Development	p. 88
Urban Development and Planning	p. 90
County of Cumberland Planning Scheme (1948)	p. 90
Sydney Region Outline Plan (1968)	p. 93
Sydney into its Third Century (1988)	p. 95
Cities for the 21st Century (1995)	p. 97
City of Cities (2005)	p. 97
Issues Relating to Sydney's Urban Development	p. 100
Data Collection and Processing	p. 100
Topographic Data	p. 100
Transportation Network	p. 101
Physical Urban Areas	p. 102
Land Excluded from Urban Development	p. 102
Urban Planning Schemes	p. 103
Defining Sydney's Urban Areas with Fuzzy Set Theory	p. 104
Urban Area Criteria for Statistical Purposes	p. 104
Defining a Fuzzy Boundary of Sydney's Urban Areas	p. 105
Visualising Sydney's Urban Development in Space and Time	p. 107
Conclusion	p. 110
Modelling the Urban Development of Sydney: Model Specification, Calibration and Implementation	p. 111
Model Specification	p. 111
Cell Size and State	p. 111
Neighbourhood Configuration	p. 112
Transition Rules	p. 113
Urban Natural Growth Controlled by Primary Transition Rules	p. 113
Constrained Development by Secondary Rules	p. 114
Flexibility in Rule Implementation	p. 119
The Temporal Dimension	p. 120
Model Calibration	p. 120
Model Calibration Principles	p. 120
Simulation Accuracy Assessment	p. 122
The Error Matrix Approach	p. 122
A Modified Error Matrix Approach	p. 124
Kappa Coefficient Analysis	p. 126
Model Implementation in GIS	p. 128
Cellular Automata Modelling and GIS	p. 128
The ArcGIS Approach	p. 129
Graphic User Interface Design	p. 130
Model Calibration	p. 131
Conclusion	p. 132
Modelling the Urban Development of Sydney: Results and Discussion	p. 133
A Summary of Results from the Model	p. 133
The Simulation and Calibration Sequence of the Model	p. 133
Overall Results under All Transition Rules	p. 134
The Impact of Individual Factors on Sydney's Urban Development	p. 138
Unconstrained Urban Growth	p. 139
Topographically Constrained Development	p. 142
Transportation-Supported Development	p. 142
Urban Planning Policies and Schemes	p. 144
Other Transition Rules	p. 145
The Impact of Neighbourhood Scale on the Model's Results	p. 146
Results from the Model under Different Neighbourhood Scales	p. 146
Simulation Accuracies of the Model over Time	p. 149
Neighbourhood Scale and Model Calibration	p. 151
Perspective Views on Sydney's Development to the year 2031	p. 151
Factors Affecting Sydney's Future Development	p. 151
Improvement in Transportation Infrastructure	p. 152
The Impact of the 2005 Metropolitan Strategic Plan	p. 153
Perspective Views of Urban Development under Different Planning Control Factors	p. 153
Conclusion	p. 157
Future Research Directions	p. 159
Local and Global Transition Rules	p. 160
Applications of Fuzzy Set and Fuzzy Logic	p. 160
Urban Consolidation and Anti-urbanisation Processes	p. 161
The Spatial Area Unit and Its Interaction with the Neighbourhood Scale	p. 162
Reapplicability of the Model	p. 162
References	p. 163
Index	p. 177
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