Modes in Ecosystem Science

by Canham, Charles Draper William; Cole, Jonathan J.; Lauenroth, William K.

• ISBN13: 9780691092898
• ISBN10: 0691092893
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2003-11-10
• Publisher: Princeton Univ Pr

Summary

Quantitative models are crucial to almost every area of ecosystem science. They provide a logical structure that guides and informs empirical observations of ecosystem processes. They play a particularly crucial role in synthesizing and integrating our understanding of the immense diversity of ecosystem structure and function. Increasingly, models are being called on to predict the effects of human actions on natural ecosystems. Despite the widespread use of models, there exists intense debate within the field over a wide range of practical and philosophical issues pertaining to quantitative modeling. This book--which grew out of a gathering of leading experts at the ninth Cary Conference--explores those issues. The book opens with an overview of the status and role of modeling in ecosystem science, including perspectives on the long-running debate over the appropriate level of complexity in models. This is followed by eight chapters that address the critical issue of evaluating ecosystem models, including methods of addressing uncertainty. Next come several case studies of the role of models in environmental policy and management. A section on the future of modeling in ecosystem science focuses on increasing the use of modeling in undergraduate education and the modeling skills of professionals within the field. The benefits and limitations of predictive (versus observational) models are also considered in detail. Written by stellar contributors, this book grants access to the state of the art and science of ecosystem modeling.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments	ix
List of Contributors and Participants	xi
1 Models in Ecosystem Science	1	(12)
Charles D. Canham, Jonathan J. Cole, and William K. Lauenroth
Part I: The Status and Role of Modeling in Ecosystem Science
2 The Role of Quantitative Models in Science	13	(36)
Naomi Oreskes
3 The Status of Dynamic Quantitative Modeling in Ecology 32
William K. Lauenroth, Ingrid C. Burke, and Joyce K. Berry
4 The Utility of Simple Models in Ecosystem Science	49	(14)
Michael L. Pace
5 In Praise of Mechanistically Rich Models	63	(20)
Donald L. DeAngelis and Wolf M. Mooij
6 Modeling for Synthesis and Integration: Forests, People, and Riparian Coarse Woody Debris	83	(28)
Monica G. Turner
7 The Role of Models in Prediction for Decision	111	(28)
Roger A. Pielke Jr.
Part II: Evaluating Ecosystem Models
8 Propagation and Analysis of Uncertainty in Ecosystem Models	139	(29)
Lars Håkanson
9 Bayesian Approaches in Ecological Analysis and Modeling	168	(16)
Kenneth H. Reckhow
10 Model Validation and Testing: Past Lessons, Present Concerns, Future Prospects	184	(20)
Robert H. Gardner and Dean L. Urban
11 Standards of Practice for Review and Publication of Models: Summary of Discussion	204	(7)
John D. Aber, Emily S. Bernhardt, Feike A. Dijkstra, Robert H. Gardner, Kate H. Macneale, William J Parton, Steward TA. Pickett, Dean L. Urban, and Kathleen C. Weathers
12 The Collision of Hypotheses: What Can Be Learned from Comparisons of Ecosystem Models7	211	(14)
Edward B. Rastetter
13 Evaluating and Testing Models of Terrestrial Biogeochemistry: The Role of Temperature in Controlling Decomposition	225	(29)
Ingrid C. Burke, Jason P. Kaye, Suzanne P. Bird, Sonia A. Hall, Rebecca L. McCulley, and Gericke L. Sommerville
14 Representing Biogeochemical Diversity and Size Spectra in Ecosystem Models of the Ocean Carbon Cycle	254	(18)
Robert A. Armstrong
15 The Mass Balances of Nutrients in Ecosystem Theory and Experiments: Implications for the Coexistence of Species	272	(27)
John Pastor
Part III. The Role of Models in Environmental Policy and Management
16 The Role of Models in Ecosystem Management	299	(9)
Graham P. Harris, Seth W. Bigelow, Jonathan J. Cole, Hélène Cyr, Lorraine L. Janus, Ann P. Kinzig, James F. Kitchell, Gene E. Likens, Kenneth H. Reckhow, Don Scavia, Doris Soto, Lee M. Talbot, and Pamela H. Templer
17 The Role of Models in Addressing Critical N Loading to Ecosystems	308	(19)
Bridget A. Emmett and Brian Reynolds
18 The Role of Models in Addressing Coastal Eutrophication	327	(17)
Anne E. Giblin and Joseph J. Vallino
19 Quantitative Models in Ecological Toxicology: Application in Ecological Risk Assessment	344	(19)
James T. Oris and A. John Bailer
20 Effects of Plant Invaders on Nutrient Cycling: Using Models to Explore the Link between Invasion and Development of Species Effects	363	(22)
Carla M. D'Antonio and Jeffrey D. Corbin
21 Predicting the Ecosystem Effects of Climate Change	385	(28)
Harald K.M. Bugmann
Part IV: The Future of Modeling in Ecosystem Science
22 The Role of Modeling in Undergraduate Education	413	(15)
Holly A. Ewing, Kathleen Hogan, Felicia Keesing, Harald K.M. Bugmann, Alan R. Berkowitz, Louis J. Gross, James T. Oris, and Justin P. Wright
23 Increasing Modeling Savvy: Strategies to Advance Quantitative Modeling Skills for Professionals within Ecology	428	(9)
Kathryn L. Cottingham, Darren L. Bade, Zoe G. Cardon, Carla M D'Antonio, C. Lisa Dent, Stuart E. G. Findlay, William K. Lauennoth, Kathleen M. LoGiudice, Robert S. Stelzen, and David L. Strayer
24 The Limits to Models in Ecology	437	(18)
Carlos M. Duarte, Jeffrey S. Amthon, Donald L. DeAngelis, Linda A. Joyce, Roxane J. Mananger, Michael L. Pace, John Pastor, and Steven W. Running
Part V: Concluding Comments
25 The Need for Fast-and-Frugal Models	455	(6)
Stephen R. Carpenter
26 On the Benefits and Limitations of Prediction	461	(5)
Ann P. Kinzig
27 A Community-Wide Investment in Modeling	466	(5)
Dean L. Urban
Index	471