Monitoring Democracy

by Kelley, Judith G.

• ISBN13: 9780691152783
• ISBN10: 0691152780
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2012-03-05
• Publisher: Princeton Univ Pr

Summary

In recent decades, governments and NGOs--in an effort to promote democracy, freedom, fairness, and stability throughout the world--have organized teams of observers to monitor elections in a variety of countries. But when more organizations join the practice without uniform standards, are assessments reliable? When politicians nonetheless cheat and monitors must return to countries even after two decades of engagement, what is accomplished? Monitoring Democracy argues that the practice of international election monitoring is broken, but still worth fixing. By analyzing the evolving interaction between domestic and international politics, Judith Kelley refutes prevailing arguments that international efforts cannot curb government behavior and that democratization is entirely a domestic process. Yet, she also shows that democracy promotion efforts are deficient and that outside actors often have no power and sometimes even do harm. Analyzing original data on over 600 monitoring missions and 1,300 elections, Kelley grounds her investigation in solid historical context as well as studies of long-term developments over several elections in fifteen countries. She pinpoints the weaknesses of international election monitoring and looks at how practitioners and policymakers might help to improve them.

Author Biography

Judith G. Kelley is associate professor of public policy and political science at Duke University. She is the author of Ethnic Politics in Europe: The Power of Norms and Incentives (Princeton).

Table of Contents

Illustrations	p. xi
Tables	p. xiii
Preface	p. xv
Abbreviations	p. xix
Introduction	p. 3
Two Questions	p. 6
Methods of Analysis	p. 12
The Rise of a New Norm	p. 16
The Changing Normative Environment	p. 21
Contestation	p. 23
Increased Supply and Demand	p. 26
The Popularization of Monitoring	p. 28
Monitoring Today: Organizational Variation	p. 34
Summary	p. 41
The Shadow Market	p. 43
Disagreements about Contested Elections	p. 47
Who Invites Whom?	p. 54
Discussion	p. 56
What Influences Monitors' Assessments?	p. 59
Analyzing Summary Monitor Assessments	p. 60
Five Types of Bias	p. 63
Discussion	p. 75
Do Politicians Change Tactics to Evade Criticism?	p. 77
What Constitutes Evidence of a Monitor-Induced Shift?	p. 78
What Are the Safer Forms of Cheating?	p. 80
Data: The Varieties of Irregularities	p. 82
The Record	p. 84
Discussion	p. 92
International Monitors as Reinforcement	p. 97
Altering Incentives to Cheat	p. 99
Altering Domestic Conditions	p. 104
If It Works, When Should It Work?	p. 107
Summary	p. 109
Are Monitored Elections Better?	p. 112
Measures of Election Quality	p. 112
An Overview of the Record	p. 115
Statistical Analysis	p. 121
Discussion	p. 129
Long-Term Effects	p. 131
Selection of Countries and Method of Analysis	p. 133
Do International Monitors Improve Elections Over Time?	p. 136
When Do Countries Follow the Recommendations of International Monitors?	p. 141
Discussion	p. 151
Conclusion: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly	p. 155
Do Monitors Assess Elections Accurately and Objectively?	p. 156
Do Monitors Improve the Quality of Elections?	p. 166
Closing Thoughts	p. 176
Data Description	p. 181
Two Datasets	p. 181
Variables	p. 184
Statistical Supplement to Chapter 3	p. 195
Statistical Supplement to Chapter 4	p. 197
Dependent Variable	p. 197
Analysis	p. 197
Statistical Supplement to Chapter 7	p. 199
Additional Description of Matching Process	p. 199
Case Summaries	p. 211
Albania: The Importance of Leverage	p. 211
Armenia: Paper Compliance	p. 214
Bangladesh: Slowly but Surely?	p. 218
Bulgaria: Motivated but Slow	p. 221
El Salvador: International Meddling for Both Good and Bad	p. 223
Georgia: Not So Rosy	p. 228
Guyana: Uphill Battle	p. 232
Indonesia: A Sluggish Behemoth	p. 237
Kenya: One Step Forward, Two Steps Back	p. 242
Lesotho: Deadlock	p. 245
Mexico: Constructive Engagement	p. 247
Nicaragua: Excessive Meddling and Deal Making	p. 252
Panama: Both a Will and a Way	p. 256
Russia: Goliath Beats David	p. 258
South Africa: Remarkably Unremarkable	p. 261
Notes	p. 265
References	p. 293
Index	p. 321
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