More Freedom, Less Terror? Liberalization and Political Violence in the Arab World

by Kaye, Dalia Dassa; Wehrey, Frederic; Grant, Audra K.; Stahl, Dale

• ISBN13: 9780833045089
• ISBN10: 0833045083
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2008-12-25
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

A key tenet of U.S. foreign policy has been that promoting democracy reduces terrorism; however, scant empirical evidence links democracy to terrorism, positively or negatively. This study explores the relationship between the two by examining the effects of liberalization processes on political violence in six Arab cases.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. iii
Figures	p. ix
Table	p. xi
Summary	p. xiii
Acknowledgments	p. xxvii
Abbreviations	p. xxix
"Democracy" and Terrorism in the Arab World: A Framework for Analysis	p. 1
Introduction	p. 1
Democracy in the Middle East: "Liberalized Autocracies" or Genuine Democratization?	p. 4
Understanding Terrorism	p. 11
The Democracy-Terrorism Debate	p. 12
Post-9/11 "Draining the Swamp" Logic	p. 12
The Democracy Backlash	p. 16
Democracy-Terrorism Hypotheses	p. 24
Empirical Application to the Arab World: Case Selection and Methods	p. 26
Egypt	p. 29
Introduction	p. 29
Liberalization in the Mubarak Era	p. 29
Trends in Violent Activity	p. 38
Comparing Levels of Freedom and Terrorism	p. 44
Assessing Effects	p. 46
Repression and Destabilization	p. 52
Conclusion	p. 53
Jordan	p. 59
Liberalization Trends	p. 60
Trends in Violent Activity	p. 65
Comparing Levels of Freedom and Terrorism	p. 68
Assessing Effects	p. 71
Normative Effects	p. 71
Institutional Effects	p. 72
Legitimacy	p. 74
Conclusion	p. 79
Bahrain	p. 81
Introduction	p. 81
Liberalization Trends	p. 83
Trends in Violent Activity	p. 87
Comparing Levels of Freedom and Terrorism	p. 91
Assessing Effects	p. 94
Perceptions of Regime Legitimacy	p. 94
Norms of Tolerance and Pluralism	p. 97
Institutional Logic	p. 98
Conclusions and Implications	p. 100
Saudi Arabia	p. 103
Introduction	p. 103
Liberalization Trends	p. 104
Trends in Violent Activity	p. 108
Comparing Levels of Freedom and Terrorism	p. 111
Assessing Effects	p. 113
Regime Legitimacy	p. 113
Normative and Institutional Effects: The Municipal Council Elections	p. 116
Conclusion	p. 120
Algeria	p. 123
Introduction	p. 123
Trends in Liberalization	p. 123
Trends in Violent Activity	p. 126
Comparing Levels of Freedom and Terrorism	p. 130
Assessing Effects	p. 132
Institutional Effects	p. 132
Normative Effects	p. 137
The Effects of State Actions on Perceptions of Regime Legitimacy	p. 139
Summary and Implications	p. 141
Morocco	p. 143
Introduction	p. 143
Trends in Liberalization	p. 143
Trends in Violent Activity	p. 148
Comparing Levels of Freedom and Terrorism	p. 151
Assessing Effects	p. 154
Institutional Effects	p. 154
Normative Effects	p. 158
Legitimacy	p. 160
Conclusion	p. 161
Conclusion	p. 163
Liberalization in the Arab World Can Both Contain and Exacerbate Political Violence	p. 164
Policy Implications: A Return to Realism or Realistic Democracy Promotion?	p. 172
Policy Recommendations	p. 174
Bibliography	p. 177
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