Nato and Caspian Security A Mission Too Far [1999]

by Sokolsky, Richard; Charlick-Paley, Tanya

• ISBN13: 9780833027504
• ISBN10: 0833027506
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 1999-09-20
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

This report attempts to put the Caspian Basin and Central Asia into a comprehensive strategic perspective at a time when NATO is increasingly concerned with challenges on its periphery. The authors examine NATO's interests, capabilities, and constraints as well as th e salient trends and factors shaping the regional security environment. In spite of the region's potential energy riches and the jockeying for influence among major powers and oil interests, the authors suggest that NATO should see the region as a potential quagmire rather than as a vacuum waiting to be filled. The report discusses Western objectives and interests in the Caspian, internal and intraregional threats to Western interests, the competition for influence among outside powers, transnational threats, Caspian oil and energy security, and implications for NATO and Western policy and planning. The authors conclude that the West has limited interests

Table of Contents

Preface	iii
Figures	vii
Summary	ix
Acknowledgments	xix
Introduction	1	(4)
Western Objectives and Interests in the Caspian Region	5	(4)
Internal and Regional Threats to Nato Interests	9	(14)
Internal Threats to Stability	9	(2)
Economic Deprivation and Social Discontent	11	(1)
Distribution of Wealth: Realities and Expectations	12	(1)
Regional Sources of Conflict and Instability	13	(7)
The Region's Future and Challenges for the West	20	(3)
The Threat of Regional Hegemony	23	(28)
Russia: The Once but Not Future Hegemon	24	(11)
China's Limited Influence	35	(5)
Turkey's Elusive Quest for a Larger Role	40	(4)
Iran: Chipping Away at the Margins	44	(4)
India and Pakistan	48	(3)
Transnational Threats	51	(18)
The Risk of WMD Proliferation	53	(9)
Tajikistan	56	(1)
Kyrgyzstan	56	(1)
Turkmenistan	56	(1)
Kazakhstan	57	(1)
Uzbekistan	57	(1)
Azerbaijan	58	(1)
The Risk of Leakage	58	(4)
The Spread of Political Islam	62	(7)
Caspian Oil and Energy Security	69	(12)
Implications for Nato and Western Policy and Planning	81	(18)
Peacetime Military Activities	85	(3)
Crisis Management and Peacekeeping	88	(7)
Major Military Operations	95	(4)
Bibliography	99