NATO's Further Enlargement Determinants and Implications for Defense Planning and Shaping

by Szayna, Thomas S.

• ISBN13: 9780833029614
• ISBN10: 0833029614
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2001-06-12
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

In the 1990s, NATO began a course of enlargement and transformation to remain relevant in Europe's post Cold War security environment. As part of its commitment to enlargement, it admitted three new members--Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic in 1999 and has plans to admit more countries in the future. NATO's enlargement has profound military implications for the U. S. and its allies in terms of future planning and shaping strategies. Both have been driven primarily by political imperatives, not by a sense of direct threat, but by an environment-shaping agenda of democratization and integration. This report develops and applies an analytical framework for thinking about the determinants of future NATO enlargement, the specific defense challenges they pose, and shaping policies that might aid in addressing these challenges.

Table of Contents

Preface	iii
Figures	vii
Tables	ix
Summary	xiii
Acknowledgments	xix
Introduction	1	(4)
Study Objective and Scope	2	(1)
Report Organization and Approach	3	(2)
The Planning Context	5	(36)
Contemporary European Security Environment	5	(5)
Nato's Transformation	10	(5)
Nato's Current Strategic Concept	11	(3)
Problems in Nato's Transformation	14	(1)
Nato's Enlargement	15	(11)
Reality of the 1997-99 Enlargement	18	(2)
Implications of Nato's Enlargement Strategy	20	(6)
Degrees of Nato Commitment	26	(15)
Categorization of Commitments	27	(9)
Gray-Area Commitments and Future European Security Trends	36	(3)
Implications for Military Planning	39	(2)
Patterns in the Enlargement Process	41	(8)
Time Frame of Decisionmaking	42	(2)
Mechanics of Enlargement	44	(5)
Assessing Candidates for Future Accession to Nato	49	(58)
Meeting Nato's Pre-Conditions	50	(22)
General Characteristics	51	(2)
Defense Expenditures	53	(9)
Political and Economic Criteria	62	(6)
Composite Assessment of Meeting Pre-Conditions	68	(4)
Strategic Rationale	72	(28)
Strategic Position	73	(14)
Armed Forces	87	(7)
Composite Assessment of Strategic Position	94	(1)
Composite Assessment of Military Forces	95	(2)
Composite Assessment of Strategic Rationale	97	(3)
Final Assessment	100	(7)
Shaping the Forces of Aspiring Members	107	(24)
Overall Challenges	109	(4)
Use of Resources	109	(2)
``Oversized'' and ``Emerging'' MAP Armed Forces	111	(2)
Challenges Related to Air Forces	113	(14)
Equipment: Combat Aircraft	113	(5)
Training	118	(2)
Equipment: Support Aircraft	120	(1)
Equipment: Army Aviation	120	(1)
Equipment: SAMs	121	(1)
Airspace and Infrastructure	122	(5)
The Former Neutrals	127	(1)
Final Considerations	128	(3)
Conclusions	131	(16)
Shaping Determinants	135	(12)
Appendix: Inventory of Aircraft and Helicopters in the MAP States	147	(8)
References	155