New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking

by Johnson, Stuart; Libicki, Martin; Treverton, Gregory F.

• ISBN13: 9780833032898
• ISBN10: 0833032895
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2003-04-16
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

Though commonplace to say, it is still easy to underestimate how much the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War transformed the task of American foreign and defense policy. The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 have opened a new era whose shape and dimensions are yet to be understood. This volume addresses the challenges of this changed world, the difficulties for defense planning that those challenges engender, and new analytic techniques that have been developed at RAND and elsewhere for framing these complex problems. Meeting complex challenges such as counter-terrorism, countering the spread of weapons of mass destruction, peace enforcement and crisis response, enforcing economic and military sanctions, and combating narcotics trafficking is critical to maintaining the economic prosperity and security of the United States and its allies. During the last decade, Rand has worked to adapt traditional defense analysis techniques to today's security environment and develop new techniques where necessary. The chapters in this volume provide a new portfolio of tools to frame decisions, to solve problems, and to analyze alternatives. Book jacket.

Author Biography

Stuart E. Johnson has many years of experience in defense planning and analysis at the Department of Defense. NATO headquarters, and in private industry Martin C. Libicki's areas of expertise include the application of information technology to national security. Gregory F. Treverton has worked on intelligence and on Europe for Congress, the White House and the National Intelligence Council Bruce W. Bennett's research interests include military strategy and force planning, countering proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, Korea, and the Persian Gulf Nurith Berstein specializes in national and international security policy issues Frank Camm leads research at RAND on high-level Army resource management issues associated with force structure design, logistics policy, and acquisition of combat service support services David S.C. Chu has served in a variety of RAND and national security government posts Paul K. Davis's expertise includes strategic defense planning, future forces and force transformation, and advanced modeling and simulation Daniel B. Fox has over 30 years of experience in military operations analysis James R. Hosek is a senior economist at RAND and editor-in-chief of the RAND Journal of Economics David Mussington is an expert in critical infrastructure protection, information and technology security, and counterterrorism and cyberterrorism Stuart H. Starr is the Director of Plans at The MITRE Corporation; his areas of expertise include the assessment of information systems in the context of national security missions Harry J. Thie's research explores officer career management and military recruiting, retention, and compensation

Table of Contents

Preface	iii
Figures	xi
Tables	xv
Acknowledgments	xvii
Abbreviations	xix
Introduction	1	(1)
From Old Challenges to New	2	(4)
How This Volume Is Organized	6	(4)
Part I. New Challenges for Defense
Introduction to Part I	10	(3)
DecisionMaking for Defense	13	(20)
David S.C. Chu
Nurith Berstein
Deciding What Decisions Must Be Made	14	(1)
Deciding Who Makes the Decisions	15	(4)
Deciding How to Allocate Resources	19	(3)
Deciding What Investments to Make	22	(5)
Alternative Approaches to Decisionmaking	27	(2)
Alternative Decisionmaking Styles	29	(2)
Looking to the Future	31	(2)
Responding to Asymmetric Threats	33	(34)
Bruce W. Bennett
From the Cold War to the Present	34	(5)
Examples of Asymmetric Threats	39	(1)
How Would Adversaries Shape Asymmetric Threats?	40	(3)
The Importance of Surprise and Anonymity	43	(2)
Challenge and Response Cycles	45	(2)
The Challenge of Weapons of Mass Destruction	47	(2)
A Framework for Responding to Asymmetric Threats	49	(17)
Institutionalization Through Protection	50	(6)
Institutionalization Through Threat Management	56	(7)
Internationalization	63	(3)
Conclusions	66	(1)
What Information Architecture for Defense?	67	(36)
Martin C. Libicki
What Is Architecture?	68	(10)
The Global Information Grid	70	(2)
Need There Be Architecture?	72	(1)
Architecture Follows Culture?	73	(1)
DoD as an Institution in Its Own League	74	(4)
Elements of Architecture	78	(16)
Collection	78	(2)
Access	80	(2)
Presentation	82	(2)
Networking	84	(2)
Knowledge Maintenance and Management	86	(3)
Security	89	(1)
Interoperability	90	(3)
Integration	93	(1)
The Need to Think Now	94	(4)
Part II. Coping with Uncertainty
Introduction to Part II	98	(5)
Incorporating Information Technology in Defense Planning	103	(28)
Martin C. Libicki
Modest Propositions About the Future	103	(4)
Real Revolutions on the Physical Battlefield	107	(12)
Hitting What Can Be Seen	107	(5)
From Contingency to Necessity	112	(2)
The Coming Architecture of Military Organization	114	(3)
Conventional War, Hyperwar, and Mud Warfare	117	(2)
False Revolutions on the Virtual Battlefield	119	(9)
What Is Information Warfare?	119	(2)
Antisensor Operations	121	(2)
Electronic Warfare	123	(1)
Command-and-Control Warfare	124	(1)
Psychological Operations	125	(1)
The Ghost in the Machine	126	(2)
The Lesson of September 11	128	(3)
Uncertainty-Sensitive Planning	131	(26)
Paul K. Davis
Why So Many Surprises?	132	(2)
Conceptual Strategic Planning	134	(7)
Uncertainty-Sensitive Strategic Planning	134	(4)
Operationalizing Strategic Planning in Portfolio-Management Terms	138	(3)
Capabilities-Based Planning	141	(16)
Key Features	142	(2)
Information Technology and Mission-System Analysis	144	(1)
Multiple Objectives and Measures	145	(1)
The Concept of a Scenario Space (an Assumptions Space)	146	(5)
Choices and Resource Allocation	151	(6)
Planning the Future Military Workforce	157	(24)
Harry J. Thie
Military Human Capital	159	(13)
Historical Size, Source, and Composition of the Active Force	159	(6)
Ongoing Revolutions: Composition, Characteristics, and Attributes	165	(4)
Looking to the Future	169	(3)
Manpower and Personnel Analysis	172	(9)
The Process	172	(2)
Choosing Among Alternatives, an Example	174	(7)
The Soldier of the 21st Century	181	(30)
James R. Hosek
Visions of the Future	182	(4)
Cyber Soldier	182	(1)
Information Warrior	183	(1)
Peace Operations	184	(1)
Rapid Response Force	184	(1)
Low-Manning Vessels	184	(1)
Evolutionary Change	185	(1)
Experience of the All-Volunteer Force	186	(21)
Versatility and Leadership	187	(2)
Attracting Quality Personnel	189	(10)
Economic Theories of Compensation	199	(8)
Issues for the Future	207	(4)
Adapting Best Commercial Practices to Defense	211	(44)
Frank Camm
What Is a Best Commercial Practice?	213	(6)
Examples	213	(1)
Commercial Practice: Neither Monolithic nor Easy to Define	214	(1)
Why DoD Should Care	215	(2)
A BCP That DoD Uses Today: Lean Production	217	(1)
What About Best Government Practice?	218	(1)
Operational Total Quality Management and BCPs	219	(4)
Key Benefits of TQM: Links Between Customers and Processes, and Continuous Improvement of Resulting System	219	(3)
TQM Viewed with Great Suspicion by Many in DoD	222	(1)
Identifying BCPs	223	(25)
Adapting BCPs for Use in DoD	224	(3)
Structural Differences Between DoD and Most Best Commercial Firms	227	(4)
An Illustrative Example: Strategic Sourcing as a Basket of BCPs	231	(2)
BCPs Relevant to DoD's Strategic Goals	233	(6)
Key Barriers to DoD's Adaptation of Sourcing BCPs	239	(3)
Insights from Commercial Experience on Overcoming Key Barriers	242	(6)
Part III. New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking
Introduction to Part III	248	(7)
Exploratory Analysis and Implications for Modeling	255	(30)
Paul K. Davis
Introduction	255	(1)
Exploratory Analysis	256	(9)
Definition	256	(2)
Types of Uncertainty in Modeling	258	(1)
Types of Exploratory Analysis	259	(6)
Enabling Exploratory Analysis	265	(13)
Using Occam's Razor	269	(1)
Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling and Model Families	270	(8)
Lessons from Recent Experience	278	(4)
Appendix: Reflecting Uncertainty with Parameters, an Example	282	(3)
Using Exploratory Modeling	285	(14)
Daniel B. Fox
The Need for Exploratory Modeling	285	(5)
The Joint Integrated Contingency Model	286	(2)
Sensitivity Analysis and Exploratory Modeling	288	(2)
Doing Exploratory Modeling	290	(7)
The Value of Exploratory Modeling	297	(2)
Assessing Military Information Systems	299	(24)
Stuart H. Starr
Historical Perspective	300	(4)
Context for Assessing Military Information Systems in the 21st Century	304	(3)
Additional Complicating and Supporting Factors	307	(2)
NATO Code of Best Practice	309	(10)
Advances over the Past 25 Years	319	(1)
Residual Challenges: A New Agenda	320	(3)
The ``Day After'' Methodology and National Security Analysis	323	(16)
David Mussington
The Methodology in Brief	324	(2)
Applications and Exercise Development	326	(11)
Strategic Information Warfare	327	(3)
Cyberpayments and Money Laundering	330	(3)
Comparison of the Two Implementations of the Methodology	333	(2)
The Day After and Analytic Independence	335	(2)
The Value of the Day After	337	(2)
Using Electronic Meeting Systems to Aid Defense Decisions	339	(22)
Stuart E. Johnson
Electronic Meeting Systems	340	(2)
Prioritizing Naval Programs: An Example of an EMS in Use	342	(19)
The Challenge	342	(2)
Overview of Methodology	344	(14)
Other Possible Uses	358	(3)
Afterword	361	(2)
Index	363	(26)
About the Authors	389