New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking

by Johnson, Stuart E.; Libicki, Martin C.; Treverton, Gregory F.; Johnson, Stuart E.

• ISBN13: 9780833032928
• ISBN10: 0833032925
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2003-05-01
• Publisher: Natl Book Network

Summary

Though commonplace to say, it is still easy to underestimate how much the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War transformed the task of American foreign and defense policy. The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 have opened a new era whose shape and dimensions are yet to be understood. This volume addresses the challenges of this changed world, the difficulties for defense planning that those challenges engender, and new analytic techniques that have been developed at RAND and elsewhere for framing these complex problems. Meeting complex challenges such as counter-terrorism, countering the spread of weapons of mass destruction, peace enforcement and crisis response, enforcing economic and military sanctions, and combating narcotics trafficking is critical to maintaining the economic prosperity and security of the United States and its allies. During the last decade, Rand has worked to adapt traditional defense analysis techniques to today's security environment and develop new techniques where necessary. The chapters in this volume provide a new portfolio of tools to frame decisions, to solve problems, and to analyze alternatives. Book jacket.

Author Biography

Stuart E. Johnson has many years of experience in defense planning and analysis at the Department of Defense. NATO headquarters, and in private industry Martin C. Libicki's areas of expertise include the application of information technology to national security. Gregory F. Treverton has worked on intelligence and on Europe for Congress, the White House and the National Intelligence Council Bruce W. Bennett's research interests include military strategy and force planning, countering proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, Korea, and the Persian Gulf Nurith Berstein specializes in national and international security policy issues Frank Camm leads research at RAND on high-level Army resource management issues associated with force structure design, logistics policy, and acquisition of combat service support services David S.C. Chu has served in a variety of RAND and national security government posts Paul K. Davis's expertise includes strategic defense planning, future forces and force transformation, and advanced modeling and simulation Daniel B. Fox has over 30 years of experience in military operations analysis James R. Hosek is a senior economist at RAND and editor-in-chief of the RAND Journal of Economics David Mussington is an expert in critical infrastructure protection, information and technology security, and counterterrorism and cyberterrorism Stuart H. Starr is the Director of Plans at The MITRE Corporation; his areas of expertise include the assessment of information systems in the context of national security missions Harry J. Thie's research explores officer career management and military recruiting, retention, and compensation

Table of Contents

Preface	p. iii
Figures	p. xi
Tables	p. xv
Acknowledgments	p. xvii
Abbreviations	p. xix
Introduction	p. 1
From Old Challenges to New	p. 2
How This Volume Is Organized	p. 6
New Challenges for Defense
Introduction to Part I	p. 10
Decisionmaking for Defense	p. 13
Deciding What Decisions Must Be Made	p. 14
Deciding Who Makes the Decisions	p. 15
Deciding How to Allocate Resources	p. 19
Deciding What Investments to Make	p. 22
Alternative Approaches to Decisionmaking	p. 27
Alternative Decisionmaking Styles	p. 29
Looking to the Future	p. 31
Responding to Asymmetric Threats	p. 33
From the Cold War to the Present	p. 34
Examples of Asymmetric Threats	p. 39
How Would Adversaries Shape Asymmetric Threats?	p. 40
The Importance of Surprise and Anonymity	p. 43
Challenge and Response Cycles	p. 45
The Challenge of Weapons of Mass Destruction	p. 47
A Framework for Responding to Asymmetric Threats	p. 49
Institutionalization Through Protection	p. 50
Institutionalization Through Threat Management	p. 56
Internationalization	p. 63
Conclusions	p. 66
What Information Architecture for Defense?	p. 67
What Is Architecture?	p. 68
The Global Information Grid	p. 70
Need There Be Architecture?	p. 72
Architecture Follows Culture?	p. 73
DoD as an Institution in Its Own League	p. 74
Elements of Architecture	p. 78
Collection	p. 78
Access	p. 80
Presentation	p. 82
Networking	p. 84
Knowledge Maintenance and Management	p. 86
Security	p. 89
Interoperability	p. 90
Integration	p. 93
The Need to Think Now	p. 94
Coping with Uncertainty
Introduction to Part II	p. 98
Incorporating Information Technology in Defense Planning	p. 103
Modest Propositions About the Future	p. 103
Real Revolutions on the Physical Battlefield	p. 107
Hitting What Can Be Seen	p. 107
From Contingency to Necessity	p. 112
The Coming Architecture of Military Organization	p. 114
Conventional War, Hyperwar, and Mud Warfare	p. 117
False Revolutions on the Virtual Battlefield	p. 119
What Is Information Warfare?	p. 119
Antisensor Operations	p. 121
Electronic Warfare	p. 123
Command-and-Control Warfare	p. 124
Psychological Operations	p. 125
The Ghost in the Machine	p. 126
The Lesson of September 11	p. 128
Uncertainty-Sensitive Planning	p. 131
Why So Many Surprises?	p. 132
Conceptual Strategic Planning	p. 134
Uncertainty-Sensitive Strategic Planning	p. 134
Operationalizing Strategic Planning in Portfolio-Management Terms	p. 138
Capabilities-Based Planning	p. 141
Key Features	p. 142
Information Technology and Mission-System Analysis	p. 144
Multiple Objectives and Measures	p. 145
The Concept of a Scenario Space (an Assumptions Space)	p. 146
Choices and Resource Allocation	p. 151
Planning the Future Military Workforce	p. 157
Military Human Capital	p. 159
Historical Size, Source, and Composition of the Active Force	p. 159
Ongoing Revolutions: Composition, Characteristics, and Attributes	p. 165
Looking to the Future	p. 169
Manpower and Personnel Analysis	p. 172
The Process	p. 172
Choosing Among Alternatives, an Example	p. 174
The Soldier of the 21st Century	p. 181
Visions of the Future	p. 182
Cyber Soldier	p. 182
Information Warrior	p. 183
Peace Operations	p. 184
Rapid Response Force	p. 184
Low-Manning Vessels	p. 184
Evolutionary Change	p. 185
Experience of the All-Volunteer Force	p. 186
Versatility and Leadership	p. 187
Attracting Quality Personnel	p. 189
Economic Theories of Compensation	p. 199
Issues for the Future	p. 207
Adapting Best Commercial Practices to Defense	p. 211
What Is a Best Commercial Practice?	p. 213
Examples	p. 213
Commercial Practice: Neither Monolithic nor Easy to Define	p. 214
Why DoD Should Care	p. 215
A BCP That DoD Uses Today: Lean Production	p. 217
What About Best Government Practice?	p. 218
Operational Total Quality Management and BCPs	p. 219
Key Benefits of TQM: Links Between Customers and Processes, and Continuous Improvement of Resulting System	p. 219
TQM Viewed with Great Suspicion by Many in DoD	p. 222
Identifying BCPs	p. 223
Adapting BCPs for Use in DoD	p. 224
Structural Differences Between DoD and Most Best Commercial Firms	p. 227
An Illustrative Example: Strategic Sourcing as a Basket of BCPs	p. 231
BCPs Relevant to DoD's Strategic Goals	p. 233
Key Barriers to DoD's Adaptation of Sourcing BCPs	p. 239
Insights from Commercial Experience on Overcoming Key Barriers	p. 242
New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking
Introduction to Part III	p. 248
Exploratory Analysis and Implications for Modeling	p. 255
Introduction	p. 255
Exploratory Analysis	p. 256
Definition	p. 256
Types of Uncertainty in Modeling	p. 258
Types of Exploratory Analysis	p. 259
Enabling Exploratory Analysis	p. 265
Using Occam's Razor	p. 269
Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling and Model Families	p. 270
Lessons from Recent Experience	p. 278
Reflecting Uncertainty with Parameters, an Example	p. 282
Using Exploratory Modeling	p. 285
The Need for Exploratory Modeling	p. 285
The Joint Integrated Contingency Model	p. 286
Sensitivity Analysis and Exploratory Modeling	p. 288
Doing Exploratory Modeling	p. 290
The Value of Exploratory Modeling	p. 297
Assessing Military Information Systems	p. 299
Historical Perspective	p. 300
Context for Assessing Military Information Systems in the 21st Century	p. 304
Additional Complicating and Supporting Factors	p. 307
NATO Code of Best Practice	p. 309
Advances over the Past 25 Years	p. 319
Residual Challenges: A New Agenda	p. 320
The "Day After" Methodology and National Security Analysis	p. 323
The Methodology in Brief	p. 324
Applications and Exercise Development	p. 326
Strategic Information Warfare	p. 327
Cyberpayments and Money Laundering	p. 330
Comparison of the Two Implementations of the Methodology	p. 333
The Day After and Analytic Independence	p. 335
The Value of the Day After	p. 337
Using Electronic Meeting Systems to Aid Defense Decisions	p. 339
Electronic Meeting Systems	p. 340
Prioritizing Naval Programs: An Example of an EMS in Use	p. 342
The Challenge	p. 342
Overview of Methodology	p. 344
Other Possible Uses	p. 358
Afterword	p. 361
Index	p. 363
About the Authors	p. 389
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