Opportunities Missed, Opportunities Seized

by Jentleson, Bruce W.; Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict; George, Alexander L. (CON)

• ISBN13: 9780847685592
• ISBN10: 0847685594
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2000-01-01
• Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield Pub Inc

Summary

The basic logic of preventive diplomacy is unassailable. Act early to prevent disputes from escalating; reduce tensions that could lead to war; deal with today's conflicts before they become tomorrow's crises. Yet as we look at the record of these first years of the post-Cold War era, it is quite mixed. There have been some preventive diplomacy successes and opportunities that have been seized by major powers and international organizations to help preserve and protect the peace. But there also have been other opportunities that have been missed, with some of the century's most deadly conflicts the result. This study examines ten major post-Cold War cases including Croatia-Bosnia, Rwanda, the Baltics, Russia-Ukraine, Macedonia, and North Korea_to assess the key factors contributing to both the success and failure of preventive diplomacy. The method of case study analysis employed is based on the work of Alexander L. George. Authors include both leading academics and prominent policy officials with first-hand knowledge.

Table of Contents

Foreword	xi
Preface and Acknowledgments	xv
Acronyms	xix
Part One: Overview
Preventive Diplomacy: A Conceptual and Analytic Framework	3	(18)
Bruce W. Jentleson
The Warning--Response Problem and Missed Opportunities in Preventive Diplomacy	21	(18)
Alexander L. George
Jane E. Holl
Part Two: The Dissolution of the Soviet Union
The War in Chechnya: Opportunities Missed, Lessons to Be Learned	39	(29)
Gail W. Lapidus
The International Community and the Conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh	68	(23)
John J. Maresca
Preventive Diplomacy: Success in the Baltics	91	(17)
Heather F. Hurlburt
Preventive Diplomacy for Nuclear Nonproliferation in the Former Soviet Union	108	(25)
James E. Goodby
Part Three: The Breakup of Yugoslavia
Costly Disinterest: Missed Opportunities for Preventive Diplomacy in Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, 1985--1991	133	(40)
Susan L. Woodward
Preventive Diplomacy for Macedonia, 1992--1999: From Containment to Nation Building	173	(38)
Michael S. Lund
Part Four: Ethnic Conflicts in Africa
Somalia: Misread Crises and Missed Opportunities	211	(27)
Kenneth Menkhaus
Louis Ortmayer
Preventive Diplomacy in Rwanda: Failure to Act or Failure of Actions?	238	(27)
Astri Suhrke
Bruce Jones
Prevention Gained and Prevention Lost: Collapse, Competition, and Coup in Congo	265	(30)
I. William Zartman
Katharina R. Vogeli
Part Five: Rogue State Aggression
Opportunity Seized: Preventive Diplomacy in Korea	295	(24)
Michael J. Mazarr
Part Six: Conclusions
Preventive Diplomacy: Analytical Conclusions and Policy Lessons	319	(30)
Bruce W. Jentleson
Notes	349	(64)
Index	413	(14)
About the Contributors	427