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List of Figures | p. ix |
List of Tables | p. xi |
Preface | p. xiii |
The Impact of Uncertainty | p. 3 |
Introduction | p. 3 |
Realism and Early Rational Choice | p. 9 |
The Psychological Tradition | p. 13 |
The Institutionalist Tradition | p. 19 |
Recent Research | p. 23 |
Conclusion | p. 25 |
Game Theory and Uncertainty | p. 27 |
Modeling Uncertainty | p. 27 |
Games of Incomplete Information | p. 28 |
Introduction | p. 28 |
Bayesian Updating | p. 31 |
Signaling and Reputation | p. 35 |
Principal-Agent Models | p. 41 |
Trigger Strategies | p. 44 |
Conclusion | p. 54 |
Gambling for Resurrection | p. 56 |
Introduction | p. 56 |
The Theory | p. 59 |
The Executive's Dilemma | p. 67 |
Gambling for Resurrection | p. 68 |
Conclusion | p. 71 |
Appendix: Optimal Bayesian Policies | p. 72 |
Optimal Imperfection: Gatt and the Uncertainty of Interest Group Demands | p. 76 |
Introduction | p. 76 |
Modeling Trade Treaties | p. 77 |
Treaty Maintenance under Perfect Information | p. 79 |
Reversionary Strategies | p. 79 |
Reciprocity and Tit-for-Tat | p. 85 |
Interest Group Uncertainty | p. 87 |
Asymmetric Preferences | p. 91 |
Coping with Nontariff Barriers: U.S. Section 301 | p. 93 |
Conclusion | p. 99 |
Appendixes | p. 101 |
Assumptions | p. 101 |
Proof of Proposition 4.1 | p. 101 |
Proof of Proposition 4.2 | p. 102 |
Proof of Proposition | |
104 5 Willing but Maybe Not Able: The Impact of Uncertainty about State Capacity | p. 105 |
Introduction | p. 105 |
An Environmental Model | p. 107 |
Enforcement Ill | |
Trigger Strategy | p. 112 |
Capacity Uncertainty and Change | p. 114 |
Capacity Uncertainty | p. 114 |
Capacity Change | p. 117 |
Equilibrium Behavior | p. 119 |
The Effects of State Capacity Uncertainty | p. 121 |
Informational Issue-Linking and a Multivariate Model | p. 123 |
Conclusion | p. 125 |
Appendixes | p. 127 |
Normal Mixture Distributions | p. 12 |
Proof of Proposition 5.1 | p. 127 |
Conclusion | p. 130 |
Domestic Uncertainty and Institutions | p. 130 |
Policy Prescriptions | p. 138 |
Bibliography | p. 143 |
Index | p. 155 |
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The Used, Rental and eBook copies of this book are not guaranteed to include any supplemental materials. Typically, only the book itself is included. This is true even if the title states it includes any access cards, study guides, lab manuals, CDs, etc.