Out of the Ordinary Finding Hidden Threats by Analyzing Unusual Behavior

by Hollywood, John

• ISBN13: 9780833035202
• ISBN10: 0833035207
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2005-01-05
• Publisher: RAND CORPORATION

Summary

Presents a unique approach to selecting and assembling disparate pieces of the information to produce a general understanding of a threat.

Table of Contents

Preface	iii
The RAND Corporation Quality Assurance Process	v
Figures	xi
Tables	xiii
Summary	xv
Acknowledgments	xxvii
Acronyms	xxix
CHAPTER ONE Introduction	1	(26)
Prologue: Something Bad Happened on November 9th	1	(2)
The Problem of Connecting the Dots in Intelligence	3	(3)
Cognitive Processes for Connecting the Dots	6	(6)
A Solution for Connecting the Dots-The Atypical Signal Analysis and Processing Schema	12	(12)
Key Attributes of ASAP	16	(2)
Near-Term Implementation of ASAP	18	(5)
An Evolutionary Path for ASAP	23	(1)
Summary of the Schema	23	(1)
Outline of the Monograph	24	(3)
CHAPTER TWO Data Analyzed in the ASAP Schema	27	(8)
Types of Data	27	(2)
Sources of Data	29	(1)
Intelligence Networks	29	(1)
Information Reported as Out of the Ordinary	30	(1)
Information on Critical Industries	30	(1)
Open-Source Information	31	(1)
Commercial Databases	32	(1)
Partitioning Intelligence and Domestic Investigative Data	32	(3)
CHAPTER THREE The Atypical Signal Analysis and Processing Architecture	35	(30)
The Scope of an ASAP System	35	(2)
Levels of Analysis in the ASAP Architecture	37	(2)
Major Functional Components Within the Architecture	39	(4)
Data Interception, Storage, and Distribution	39	(1)
Finding Dots	40	(3)
Linking Dots	43	(1)
Generating and Testing Hypotheses	44	(4)
Control of the ASAP Architecture	48	(14)
Principles and Structures of Control	48	(5)
Control at the Operations Level	53	(4)
Control at the Tactical Level	57	(1)
Learning and Adaptation	58	(4)
Roles of Human Analysts and Automated Agents	62	(3)
CHAPTER FOUR Finding the Dots	65	(12)
Finding Dots with Rules	65	(2)
Representing Context	67	(1)
Dimensions of Context	68	(7)
Times, Events, and Behavioral Life Cycles	68	(1)
Structures of Tactical Behavior	69	(2)
Structures of Strategic and Organizational Behavior	71	(1)
Structures of the Status Quo	71	(1)
Structures That Disrupt: Dot Noise and Intentional Denial and Deception	72	(3)
High-Dimensionality Detection Agents	75	(2)
CHAPTER FIVE Connecting the Dots	77	(6)
Similarity Connections	77	(3)
Complementary Connections	80	(3)
CHAPTER SIX Understanding the Dots: Generating and Testing Hypotheses	83	(14)
Generating Hypotheses	83	(11)
A First Pattern-Characterizing Dimension: Indicative and Non-Indicative Patterns	85	(3)
A Second Pattern-Characterizing Dimension: Tests on Data, Metadata, and Reports	88	(4)
Representation of Patterns	92	(1)
High-Dimensionality Pattern Analysis	93	(1)
Testing Hypotheses	94	(3)
CHAPTER SEVEN Conclusion	97	(6)
Summary	97	(1)
A Research Plan	98	(2)
Conclusion: Recommendations for Action	100	(3)
APPENDIX
A. Case Study: "The November 9th Incident"	103	(36)
B. Systems Related to the ASAP Architecture	139	(12)
Bibliography	151