Pakistan Can the United States Secure an Insecure State?

by Morgan, Forrest E.

• ISBN13: 9780833048073
• ISBN10: 0833048074
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2010-06-16
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

Describing Pakistan's likely future course, this book seeks to inform U.S. efforts to achieve an effective foreign policy strategy toward the country. The book forms an empirical analysis of developments in Pakistan and an assessment of the effectiveness of U.S. policy as of August 2009. Drawing on interviews of elites, polling data, and statistical data on Pakistan's armed forces, the book presents a political and political-military analysis. Primary data and analyses from Pakistanis and international economic organizations are used in the book's demographic and economic analyses. The book assesses Pakistan's own policies, based on similar sources, on government documents, and on the authors' close reading of the assessments of several outside observers. The book also discusses U.S. policy regarding Pakistan, which was based on interviews with U.S. policymakers and on U.S. policy documents. The policy recommendations are based on an assessment of the findings in all these areas. The book concludes with a number of recommendations for the U.S. government and the U.S. Air Force concerning how the United States could forge a broad yet effective relationship with this complicated state. Book jacket.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. iii
Figures	p. ix
Tables	p. xi
Summary	p. xiii
Acknowledgments	p. xxiii
Abbreviations	p. xxv
Introduction	p. 1
Purpose	p. 1
Organization	p. 4
Research Approach	p. 5
Pakistan's Future: Is Past Prologue?	p. 7
Failed Constitutionalism and Governance	p. 8
Central Governance in Dispute	p. 9
The Center's Relations with the Provinces and Other Areas	p. 11
The Army: Guarantor of an Insecure State?	p. 16
The Army's Preeminent Role in Decisionmaking	p. 19
Regional Security and Risk Taking	p. 21
Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons: Sources of Security and Insecurity	p. 26
Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons	p. 27
The Proliferation Challenges	p. 28
Organization and Security of Pakistan's Nuclear Infrastructure	p. 31
International Significance of Pakistan's Nuclear Challenges	p. 33
Pakistan's Problematic Political Landscape	p. 40
Principal Political Parties	p. 42
Pakistan's Internal Security Challenges	p. 48
Islamism, Militancy, and the State	p. 51
The Post-9/11 Militant Landscape	p. 53
Demographic Trends	p. 58
Population Growth	p. 58
Urbanization	p. 59
The Economy	p. 61
Economic Growth	p. 61
Inflation and Fiscal Balance	p. 63
Employment, Income Growth, and Poverty	p. 64
Economic Outlook	p. 67
Social Development	p. 68
Education	p. 69
Health	p. 71
Concluding Remarks	p. 72
Pakistan's Ability to Mitigate Sources of Insecurity	p. 75
The Constitution and Civil-Military Relations	p. 76
Radical Reform Needed for Pakistan's Political Parties	p. 77
Reasons for Optimism?	p. 82
Taming the Military?	p. 84
Countering Internal Security Threats	p. 87
The Strategic Use of Militants	p. 88
The Pakistan Government's Ability to Tackle the Militant Threat	p. 94
Pakistan's Foreign Policy	p. 108
Foreign Policy Objectives	p. 109
Foreign Policymaking	p. 112
Pakistan's Alliances and Regional Insecurities	p. 115
Economic Policies	p. 123
Macroeconomic Policies	p. 123
Government Defense Spending and Other Military Revenues	p. 124
Regulatory Policies and Privatization	p. 127
Policies for Social Development	p. 128
Population Policy	p. 129
Health Policy	p. 131
Education Policy	p. 132
Conclusions	p. 136
How Effective Have U.S. Policies Toward Pakistan Been?	p. 139
Divergent Priorities and Conflicted Aims: U.S. and Pakistani Objectives	p. 139
U.S. Objectives	p. 139
Pakistan's Objectives	p. 144
The Problem of Conflicting Goals	p. 149
Engaging Pakistan: U.S. Policy Instruments and Their Effectiveness	p. 150
Security Assistance Programs	p. 156
Military Reimbursement	p. 158
Arms Sales and Military Training	p. 162
The Security Development Plan	p. 165
Other Assistance for Internal Security	p. 168
Assistance That Is Unrelated to Security	p. 170
Economic and Development Assistance	p. 170
Non-U.S. Economic and Development Assistance to Pakistan	p. 172
U.S. Public Diplomacy and Democracy Promotion Efforts	p. 175
The Downsides of "Conditionality"	p. 176
The Downsides of U.S. Support for Individual Pakistani Leaders	p. 178
Conclusions	p. 179
U.S. Policy Options for Pakistan	p. 181
Learn the Lessons of the Past	p. 181
A New Strategy for Pakistan	p. 182
Develop Alternative Supply Routes for Operations in Afghanistan	p. 184
Work with Pakistan's Key Supporters to Develop Cooperative Policies	p. 185
Forge a Strategic Dialogue with Pakistan	p. 186
Rebalance U.S. Assistance to Increase Support to Pakistan's Civilian Institutions and People	p. 187
Help Make Politics and Political Institutions More Professional	p. 188
Foster the Rule of Law and Justice	p. 190
Counternarcotics: Supply and Demand Approaches	p. 191
U.S. Economic and Development Assistance to Pakistan	p. 191
Military Assistance	p. 193
Forge a Regional Strategy	p. 196
Recommendations for the U.S. Air Force	p. 197
Need for a Contingency Plan?	p. 201
Bibliography	p. 203
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