Particulate Matter Science for Policy Makers : A NARSTO Assessment

by Edited by Peter H. McMurry, Marjorie F. Shepherd, James S. Vickery

• ISBN13: 9780521842877
• ISBN10: 0521842875
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2004-11-29
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Summary

Particulate Matter Science for Policy Makers: A NARSTO Assessment was commissioned by NARSTO, a cooperative public-private sector organization of Canada, Mexico and the United States. It is a concise and comprehensive discussion of the current understanding by atmospheric scientists of airborne particulate matter (PM). Its goal is to provide policy makers who implement air-quality standards with this relevant and needed scientific information. The primary audience for this volume will be regulators, scientists, and members of industry, all of whom have a stake in effective PM management. It will also inform exposure and health scientists, who investigate causal hypotheses of health impacts, characterize exposure, and conduct epidemiological and toxicological studies.

Table of Contents

List of Figures	xvii
List of Tables	xxiii
Preface	xxvii
Commissioning of the Assessment	xxvii
Verifying the Needs of Policy Makers	xxviii
Preparing the Assessment	xxix
Assessment Co-chairs	xxix
Lead Authors	xxix
Contributing Authors	xxix
NARSTO Staff	xxx
Acknowledgements	xxx
Memorial to Professor Glen Cass (1947-2001)	xxxi
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY	1	(6)
PM2.5 Mass and Composition Responses to Changing Emissions	1	(1)
Local, Regional, and Continental Management of PM2.5	2	(1)
Predictive Capabilities	2	(1)
Copollutant Interactions	3	(1)
New Insights from Improved Measurements and Monitoring	3	(1)
Linkages Between the Health and Atmospheric Science Communities	3	(1)
Tracking Progress and Success of Air-Quality Management	4	(1)
Scientific Uncertainties and Looking Forward	4	(3)
PARTICULATE MATTER SCIENCE FOR POLICY MAKERS: SYNTHESIS	7	(426)
The Information Framework	7	(2)
Air-Quality Management: A Policy Overview	9	(1)
The Nature of PM: A Brief Overview	9	(3)
PM Issues and Policy Questions	12	(1)
Policy Question #1 - Is there a significant PM problem and how confident are we?	12	(7)
Key science findings	14	(1)
Spatial and temporal characterization	14	(1)
Measurements	15	(2)
Health effects	17	(1)
Chemical deposition	18	(1)
Visibility and Climate	18	(1)
New science to improve implementation approaches	19	(1)
Policy Question #2 - Where there is a PM problem, what is its composition and what factors contribute to elevated concentrations?	19	(5)
Key science findings	19	(1)
Composition and the factor of seasonality	19	(2)
Emissions and atmospheric processes as contributing factors	21	(1)
Regional contributions	21	(3)
PM10	24	(1)
New science to improve implementation approaches	24	(1)
Policy Question #3 - What broad, pollutant-based, approaches might be taken to fix the problem?	24	(5)
Key science findings	24	(1)
Coincident reduction of precursors	24	(1)
Reduction of carbonaceous PM	25	(1)
Reduction of nitrates	25	(1)
Differing regional strategies	25	(1)
The SO4= - NO3- NH4+ equilibrium	26	(1)
Area-specific insights	27	(1)
Regional reductions	28	(1)
PM10	29	(1)
New science to improve implementation approaches	29	(1)
Policy Question #4 - What source-specific options are there for fixing the problem given the broad control approaches above?	29	(7)
Key science findings	30	(1)
Source-attribution approaches	30	(1)
Source-based modeling: Chemical-Transport Models	30	(2)
Receptor modeling	32	(1)
Emission inventories and source insights	33	(1)
Sources of PM	34	(1)
New science to improve implementation approaches	35	(1)
Policy Question #5 - What is the relationship between PM, its components, and other air-pollution problems on which the atmospheric-science community is working?	36	(3)
Key science findings	36	(1)
Visibility (regional haze)	36	(2)
Ozone	38	(1)
Chemical deposition (from PQ #1)	39	(1)
Climate change (from PQ#1)	39	(1)
New science to improve implementation approaches	39	(1)
Policy Question #6 - How can progress be measured? How can we determine the effectiveness of our actions in bringing about emission reductions and air-quality improvements, with their corresponding exposure reductions and health improvements?	39	(5)
Key science findings	40	(1)
Tracking emission changes	40	(1)
Tracking trends in ambient air-quality	40	(3)
Tracking changes in visibility	43	(1)
Tracking changes in exposure and health	44	(1)
New science to improve implementation approaches	44	(1)
Policy Question #7 - When and how should implementation programs be reassessed and updated to adjust for any weaknesses, and to take advantage of advances in science and technology?	44	(2)
Key science findings	44	(2)
New science to improve implementation approaches	46	(1)
Policy Question #8 - What further atmospheric-sciences information will be needed in the periodic reviews of national standards?	46	(4)
Key science findings	46	(1)
PM measurement considerations	47	(1)
Exposure-science considerations	47	(1)
Health-science considerations	48	(1)
Air-quality and exposure-modeling consi-derations	48	(1)
New science to improve implementation approaches	49	(1)
Benefits to the Policy Community of New Science	50	(2)
References	52	(1)
Perspective for Managing PM	53	(16)
The Nature of Ambient Particles	54	(2)
Scale, Sources, and Man-Agement of the Problem	56	(3)
Health Impacts	59	(2)
Visibility Impacts	61	(1)
Federal Ambient PM Standards and Policy Contexts	62	(4)
Canada	62	(1)
United States	63	(1)
Mexico	64	(1)
Implementation of Scientific Information into Decision Making	65	(1)
The Structure of the Assessment	66	(2)
References	68	(1)
Health Context for Management of Particulate Matter	69	(34)
Overview	69	(1)
Historical Perspective	69	(3)
Exposure Assessment	72	(4)
Sources of Information on Health Responses to Air Pollution	76	(7)
Epidemiological Approaches	77	(4)
Controlled-Exposure Studies with Human Subjects	81	(1)
Laboratory Animal Studies	82	(1)
Tissue and Cell Studies	82	(1)
Epidemiological Findings	83	(7)
Acute Exposure	83	(3)
Chronic Exposures	86	(4)
Intervention Studies	90	(2)
Toxicological Evidence	92	(2)
Policy-Relevant Findings and Future Opportunities	94	(1)
References	95	(8)
Atmospheric Aerosol Processes	103	(24)
The Life of an Atmospheric Particle	103	(4)
A Particle is Born: Nucleation	107	(1)
How Long Does it Take for a Particle to Collide with Another?	108	(1)
Particles and Water	108	(1)
Secondary PM Formation	109	(4)
Sulfate	110	(1)
Nitrate	111	(1)
Secondary Organic Aerosol (SOA) Formation	111	(1)
Interactions of Primary and Secondary PM Components	112	(1)
From Precursor Emissions to Aerosol Component Concentration	113	(5)
Linearity	114	(1)
An Application to Southern California	115	(1)
Effectiveness of SO2 Emission Reductions	115	(2)
VOC Emission Reductions and SOA	117	(1)
Limiting Reactants	117	(1)
Removal and Long-Range Transport of PM	118	(2)
PM and Other Pollutants	120	(1)
Policy Implications	120	(3)
References	123	(4)
Emission Characterization	127	(32)
Types of Emission Inventories and Their Uses	129	(1)
The Nature and Characteristics of Emission Inventories	130	(13)
Characterization by Source Category	132	(5)
Geographical Distribution of Emissions	137	(1)
Temporal Variations, Trends and Forecasts in Emissions	138	(1)
Temporal Variations	138	(2)
Trends and Projections	140	(3)
Estimating Uncertainty in Emission Inventories	143	(3)
Improving Estimation Methods	146	(5)
Methodological Improvements	148	(1)
The Source/Ambient-Air Interface	149	(2)
How Well Do the Emission Inventories Address Application Needs?	151	(2)
Summary	153	(2)
Policy Implications	155	(1)
References	156	(3)
Particle and Gas Measurements	159	(32)
Currently Available Technology and Instrument Capabilities	161	(13)
Size-Selective Inlets	161	(2)
Integrated Denuder and Gravimetric Filter-Based Systems (substrate- and absorbent-based measurements) for Mass and Composition Sampling	163	(3)
Continuous and Semi-continuous Real-time Measurements	166	(3)
Personal Exposure Monitors	169	(1)
Single-Particle Measurement Capabilities	170	(1)
Optical Properties of Aerosols and Long-Path Optical Measurements	170	(3)
Chemical Analysis of Cloud and Fog Chemical Composition	173	(1)
Gas-Phase PM Precursors, Ozone, Ozone Precursors, and Oxidants	173	(1)
Meteorological Measurements	173	(1)
Measurement Uncertainty and Validation	174	(4)
Estimation of Particle Measurement Uncertainty	174	(1)
Mass and Size Distribution	175	(1)
Aerosol Chemical Composition	176	(1)
Uncertainties in Routine Gas-phase Measurements Used for Network Monitoring	177	(1)
Measurement Strategies and Network Issues	178	(5)
Deployment of Measurement Technology	178	(4)
Future Requirements for Measurement Strategies	182	(1)
Summary	183	(3)
Policy Implications	186	(1)
References	187	(4)
Spatial and Temporal Characterization of Particulate Matter	191	(44)
Introduction	191	(2)
General Features Affecting Particulate Levels in North America	191	(1)
Spatial and Time Scales of Interest	192	(1)
Monitoring Capabilities	193	(1)
Continental and Regional Variations of PM Concentrations	193	(16)
Spatial Variations of PM10 Mass: Where and When are PM10 Concentrations Highest?	195	(3)
Spatial Patterns of PM2.5 Mass	198	(3)
Seasonal Variations of PM2.5 Mass	201	(4)
The Composition of PM2.5 and Its Geographical Variation	205	(4)
Regional and Urban Contributions to PM	209	(6)
Comparisons Between Rural and Urban Sites	209	(1)
Evidence for Local PM Sources: Temporal Variations	209	(1)
PM Mass Concentrations at Remote Locations	210	(4)
Regional Transport	214	(1)
The Influence of Intercontinental Aerosol Transport on PM Mass Concentrations in North America	215	(2)
Trends and Their Implications	217	(6)
Covariation of PM with Ozone	223	(1)
Summary	224	(5)
Policy Implications	229	(2)
References	231	(4)
Receptor Methods	235	(48)
Introduction and Overview	235	(4)
Receptor Model Types	239	(8)
Chemical Mass Balance	241	(4)
Enrichment Factors	245	(1)
Multiple Linear Regression on Marker Species	245	(1)
Temporal and Spatial Correlation Eigenvectors	246	(1)
Time Series	246	(1)
Neural Networks	247	(1)
Aerosol Evolution and Equilibrium	247	(1)
Receptor-Model Input Measurements	247	(10)
Particle Size	248	(1)
Chemical Composition	248	(1)
Soil, Dust, and Industrial Markers	249	(1)
Combustion Markers	249	(1)
Secondary Sulfate and Nitrate	249	(3)
Carbonaceous Particles	252	(3)
Secondary Organic Aerosol	255	(1)
Other Chemical Markers	255	(1)
Temporal and Spatial Variability	256	(1)
Combining Size, Composition, Space, and Time	256	(1)
Receptor Models and Decision-Making	257	(9)
Sulfur Reductions in Canadian Gasoline	257	(3)
PM25 and Urban Haze in Denver, CO	260	(3)
Haze in the Grand Canyon	263	(2)
Understanding the Sources of PM10 and PM2.5 in Mexico City	265	(1)
Developing PM Management Strategies	266	(3)
Manageable and Unmanageable Source Contributions	266	(1)
Main Contributors to Manageable PM	267	(2)
Summary	269	(1)
Policy Implications	270	(1)
References	271	(12)
Chemical-Transport Models	283	(42)
Introduction	283	(4)
Current Status of PM Chemical-Transport Models	287	(7)
Emissions	287	(1)
Meteorology	288	(2)
Transport and Diffusion Processes	290	(1)
Chemical Transformations	290	(1)
Representation of PM	291	(1)
Deposition Processes	292	(1)
Computational Aspects	293	(1)
Applications of Chemical-Transport Models to the Simulation of Episodic and Long-Term PM Concentrations	294	(1)
Episodic Simulations	294	(1)
Long-Term Simulations	294	(1)
What Questions Can Chemical-Transport Models Address and How Well?	295	(4)
Can the Contributions of Various Precursors and Source Types to PM Be Quantified?	295	(1)
Can the Relative Contributions of Long-Range Transport and Local Emissions Be Quantified?	296	(1)
Can the Relative Magnitude of Seasonal Contributions to PM Concentrations Be Represented?	297	(1)
Can the Response of PM Levels to Changes in Emissions and Upwind Concentrations Be Predicted?	297	(1)
Can the Relationships Between PM and Other Air-Pollution Problems Be Quantified?	298	(1)
Can Other PM Properties that are Potentially Relevant to Health Effects Be Calculated?	298	(1)
Can PM Episodes Be Forecast in Real Time?	299	(1)
Evaluation Process for Chemical-Transport Models	299	(3)
Model Simulations versus Ambient Measurements	299	(1)
Overview of the Performance-Evaluation Process	300	(1)
Data Needs for CTM Performance Evaluation	301	(1)
Corroboration of CTM Results with Indicator-Species Methods	301	(1)
Current Status of CTM Performance and Intercomparisons	302	(4)
Use of CTMS to Complement Monitoring Networks	306	(1)
Use of CTMS to Support Estimations of Exposure	306	(2)
Policy-Relevant Results from CTM Applications	308	(5)
PM CTMs	308	(2)
Acid-Deposition CTMs	310	(3)
Photochemical CTMs	313	(1)
Critical Uncertainties	313	(3)
Summary	316	(2)
Policy Implications	318	(1)
References	319	(6)
Visibility and Radiative Balance Effects	325	(30)
How is Visibility Linked to PM?	325	(9)
How is Visibility Distributed and How Has It Varied over the Years?	327	(2)
Factors Affecting the Relationship between PM and Visibility	329	(1)
Empirical Relationships between PM and Visibility	330	(3)
What are Some Special Issues with Visibility?	333	(1)
Roles and Uses of PM and Optical Measurements in Visibility Assessment and Management	334	(4)
Long-Term Monitoring Programs	334	(2)
Short-Term Measurement Programs	336	(1)
An Example of a Scenic Visibility Setting - The Colorado Plateau	336	(2)
Can One Use PM Studies for Visibility?	338	(1)
How are Models Used in Visibility Management?	338	(4)
What Specific Features are Required when Modeling Visibility?	339	(1)
Are Current Models Able to Simulate Visibility Conditions?	339	(2)
What Would Improve the Capacity to Model Visibility?	341	(1)
Atmospheric Particles Affect the Global Radiation Balance	342	(3)
Visibility Management Issues and Approaches	345	(3)
What Is Being Done to Manage Visibility?	345	(1)
Alignment of Visibility and PM Control Programs	346	(1)
Regional Planning Organizations	347	(1)
Point-Source Control Programs	347	(1)
International Programs	347	(1)
Summary and Conclusions	348	(2)
Policy Implications	350	(1)
References	351	(4)
Conceptual Models of PM for North American Regions	355	(60)
Overview	355	(2)
Summary	357	(2)
Conceptual Model of PM Over the San Joaquin Valley of California	359	(8)
Annual and Seasonal Levels of PM2.5 and PM10 in Relation to Mass-Based Standards	359	(5)
Compositional Analysis of PM	364	(1)
Meteorological Influences	364	(1)
Atmospheric Processes Contributing to PM	365	(1)
Sources and Source Regions Contributing Principal Chemicals of Concern	366	(1)
Implications for Policy Makers	367	(1)
Conceptual Model of PM Over Los Angeles, California	367	(6)
Annual and Seasonal Levels of PM2.5 and PM10 in Relation to Mass-Based Standards	367	(1)
Compositional Analysis of PM	368	(2)
Meteorological Influences	370	(1)
Atmospheric Processes Contributing to PM	370	(1)
Sources and Source Regions Contributing Principal Chemicals of Concern	371	(2)
Implications for Policy Makers	373	(1)
Conceptual Model of PM Over Mexico City	373	(6)
Annual and Seasonal Levels of PM2.5 and PM10 in Relation to Mass-Based Standards	373	(1)
Compositional Analysis of PM	374	(2)
Meteorological Influences on PM	376	(1)
Atmospheric Processes Contributing to PM	377	(1)
Sources and Source Regions Contributing Principal Chemicals of Concern	377	(1)
Implications for Policy Makers	378	(1)
Conceptual Model of PM Over the Southeastern United States	379	(6)
Annual and Seasonal Levels of PM2.5 and PM10 in Relation to Mass-Based Standards	379	(1)
Compositional Analysis of PM	380	(2)
Meteorological Influences on PM	382	(1)
Atmospheric Processes Contributing to PM	383	(1)
Sources and Source Regions	383	(1)
Implications for Policy Makers	383	(2)
Conceptual Model of PM Over the Northeastern United States	385	(6)
Annual and Seasonal Levels of PM2.5 and PM10 in Relation to Mass-based Standards	385	(1)
Annual Mean Concentrations of PM2.5	385	(1)
24-hr-Mean Concentration of PM2.5	385	(1)
Annual and Daily PM10	386	(1)
Seasonal-Mean Concentrations of PM2.5	386	(1)
Compositional Analysis of PM	386	(2)
Seasonal Mean PM2.5 Composition	388	(1)
Meteorological Influences on PM	389	(1)
Atmospheric Processes Contributing to PM	389	(1)
Sources and Source Regions Contributing Principal Chemicals of Concern	390	(1)
Implications for Policy Makers	390	(1)
Conceptual Model of PM Over the Windsor-Quebec City Corridor	391	(5)
Annual and Seasonal Levels of PM2.5 and PM10 in Relation to Mass-Based Standards	391	(1)
Compositional Analysis of PM	392	(2)
Meteorological Influences on PM	394	(1)
Atmospheric Processes Contributing to PM	394	(1)
Sources and Source Regions Contributing Principal Chemicals of Concern	395	(1)
Implications for Policy Makers	395	(1)
Conceptual Model of PM Over the U.S. Upper Midwest Great Lakes Area	396	(2)
Annual and Seasonal Levels of PM2.5 and PM10 in Relation to Mass-Based Standards	396	(1)
Compositional Analysis of PM	396	(1)
Meteorological Influences	396	(1)
Atmospheric Processes Contributing to PM	396	(1)
Sources and Source Regions Contributing Principal Chemicals of Concern	397	(1)
Implications for Policy Makers	398	(1)
Conceptual Model of PM Over the Canadian Prairie and U.S. Central Plains	398	(4)
Annual and Seasonal Levels of PM2.5 and PM10 in Relation to Mass-Based Standards	398	(1)
Compositional Analysis of PM	399	(1)
Meteorological Influences on PM	399	(2)
Atmospheric Processes Contributing to PM	401	(1)
Sources and Source Regions Contributing Principal Chemicals of Concern	401	(1)
Implications for Policy Makers	401	(1)
Conceptual Description of PM Over the Lower Fraser Valley Airshed	402	(7)
Annual and Seasonal Levels of PM2.5 and PM10 in Relation to Mass-Based Standards	402	(2)
Compositional Analysis of PM	404	(1)
Meteorological Influences on PM	404	(3)
Atmospheric Processes Contributing to PM	407	(1)
Sources and Source Regions Contributing Principal Chemicals of Concern	407	(1)
Implications for Policy Makers	408	(1)
References	409	(6)
Recommended Research to Inform Public Policy	415	(18)
Recommendations	416	(15)
Future Narsto PM Assessments	431	(1)
References	432	(1)
GLOSSARY	433	(6)
Acronyms and Abbreviations	433	(2)
Definitions	435	(4)
APPENDIX A. EMISSION CALCULATIONS AND INVENTORY LISTINGS	439	(20)
How Are Emissions Calculated?	439	(6)
Emission and Emission Reduction Factors	439	(1)
Activity Patterns	440	(2)
Spatial Allocation	442	(1)
Processing for Model Applications	443	(1)
Limitations and Uncertainties	443	(2)
Emission Inventories By Detailed Source Category	445	(13)
References	458	(1)
APPENDIX B. MEASUREMENTS	459	(34)
Applications of Data from Air-Quality Measurements	459	(1)
Currently Available Technology and Instrument Capabilities	459	(26)
Inlets	459	(1)
Integrated Denuder and Filter Systems (substrate- and absorbent-based measurements) for Mass and Composition Sampling	459	(4)
Denuders	463	(2)
Filters	465	(1)
Impactors	465	(1)
Chemical Analysis Methods for PM Collected on Filters	465	(2)
Continuous and Semi-continuous Real-time Measurements	467	(1)
Mass and Mass Equivalent	467	(1)
Inertial Methods	467	(4)
Pressure-Drop Method	471	(1)
Electron-Attenuation Method	471	(1)
Size Distribution and Mobility	471	(1)
Bulk Chemical Composition Methods	472	(1)
Black Carbon (BC) and Organic Carbon (OC)	472	(1)
Ionic Component of Aerosol Particles	473	(1)
Particulate Metals	473	(1)
Single-Particle Measurements	474	(1)
Optical Properties of Aerosols and Long-Path Optical Measurements	475	(1)
In-situ Measurements of Light Scattering and Light Absorption	475	(1)
Long-Path Measurement Techniques: Remote Sensing and Visibility	475	(2)
Satellite Measurements	477	(1)
Gas-Phase Aerosol Precursors, Ozone, Ozone Precursors and Oxidants	478	(7)
Meteorological Measurements	485	(1)
Measurement Uncertainty and Validation	485	(2)
References	487	(6)
APPENDIX C. MONITORING DATA: AVAILABILITY, LIMITATIONS, AND NETWORK ISSUES	493	(8)
Monitoring Programs and Objectives	493	(1)
Network Design	494	(3)
Network Needs	497	(1)
References	498	(3)
APPENDIX D. GLOBAL AEROSOL TRANSPORT	501	(8)
APPENDIX E. PREPARATION OF THIS ASSESSMENT	509