Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk

by Van Asselt, Marjolein B. A.

• ISBN13: 9780792366560
• ISBN10: 0792366565
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2000-11-01
• Publisher: Kluwer Academic Pub

Summary

This volume is intended to stimulate a change in the practice of decision support, advocating an interdisciplinary approach centred on both social and natural sciences, both theory and practice. It addresses the issue of analysis and management of uncertainty and risk in decision support corresponding to the aims of Integrated Assessment. A pluralistic method is necessary to account for legitimate plural interpretations of uncertainty and multiple risk perceptions. A wide range of methods and tools is presented to contribute to adequate and effective pluralistic uncertainty management and risk analysis in decision support endeavours. Special attention is given to the development of one such approach, the Pluralistic fRamework for Integrated uncertainty Management and risk Analysis (PRIMA), of which the practical value is explored in the context of the Environmental Outlooks produced by the Dutch Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM). Audience: This book will be of interest to researchers and practitioners whose work involves decision support, uncertainty management, risk analysis, environmental planning, and Integrated Assessment.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgements	xiii
Introduction and research methodology	1	(22)
Complexity, uncertainty and risk	3	(1)
Decision-support	4	(2)
Integrated Assessment	6	(1)
Research perspective	7	(2)
Aim of the thesis	9	(3)
Problem Definition	9	(1)
Research Hypotheses	10	(1)
Research Questions	11	(1)
Targeted Objective	11	(1)
Research approach	12	(7)
Research Philosophy	12	(1)
Research Methodology	12	(2)
Problem Analysis	14	(1)
Design of Pluralistic Framework	14	(1)
Case-Study	15	(2)
Experimenting	17	(2)
Evaluation	19	(1)
Structure of the book	19	(4)
References Chapter I	21	(2)
Integrated Assesment	23	(52)
Key features of Integrated Assessment	23	(5)
The policy dimension of IA	28	(4)
Taxonomy of IA studies	32	(5)
IA methodology	37	(17)
Analytical Method: IA Modelling	38	(3)
Analytical Method: Scenarios	41	(3)
Participatory Methods	44	(7)
Towards An Integrated Assessment Tool-Kit	51	(3)
Good practiced and High Quality	54	(12)
Dilemmas	54	(2)
Rough Guidelines For Practise	56	(6)
Quality Criteria	62	(4)
Challenges	66	(9)
References Chapter 2	67	(8)
Uncertainty	75	(72)
Uncertainty in a historical perspective	77	(5)
The Enlishtenment	77	(1)
The Crisis of Positivism	78	(1)
Post-Modernism	79	(1)
Social-Constructivism	80	(1)
Facing Inherent Uncertainty	81	(1)
Typology of uncertainty	82	(11)
Trans-Scientific Questions	83	(1)
Sources and Types of Uncertainty	84	(1)
Sources of Uncertainty	85	(3)
Types of Uncertainty	88	(3)
Uncertainty, Measurability and Subjectivity	91	(2)
State of the art in uncertainty analysis	93	(15)
Sensitivity Analysis	94	(1)
Probability-Based Methods	95	(1)
Formal Scenario Analysis	96	(2)
Hedging-Oriented Methods	98	(1)
Validation	98	(1)
Qualitative Uncertainity Analysis	99	(5)
Limits	104	(4)
Towards uncertainty management	108	(6)
Approaches to Selecting Salient Uncertainties	109	(2)
Subjectivity, Controversy and Pluralism	111	(2)
Challenges for Uncertainty Management	113	(1)
Perspective-based uncertainty Management	114	(20)
Perspectives	114	(5)
Multiple Model Routes	119	(14)
Lessons Learned	133	(1)
Framework for uncertainty Management	134	(3)
Conclusions	137	(10)
References Chapter 3A	139	(8)
Risk	147	(58)
The risk debate	150	(10)
The Debate on Risk Definitions	151	(5)
The Debated on the Riskiness of Modern Hazards	156	(2)
The Range of Schoolary Views	158	(2)
Towards an integrated risk analysis	160	(12)
The Need for an Integrated Risk Notion	163	(2)
The Need for Participation	165	(4)
The Challenge	169	(3)
Defining and classifiying `risk'	172	(7)
Participatory risk analysis	179	(5)
Multiple risk assessments	184	(7)
Risk statements	191	(7)
How to Communicate Risk Statements?	191	(3)
How to Integrate Pluralistic Risk Assessments Into Bobust Risk Statements?	194	(4)
Conclusions	198	(7)
References Chapter 3B	200	(5)
Uncertainty and risk in perspective	205	(22)
Uncertain risks and risky uncertainties	206	(3)
Pluralism	209	(4)
Pluralism as a fact	213	(2)
Pluralism in perspective	215	(5)
Towards pluralistic methods	220	(7)
References Chapter 4	225	(2)
Pluralistic framework for Integrated uncertainty Management and risk Analysis (PRIMA)	227	(36)
General framework	228	(2)
Starting perspective	230	(6)
Uncertainty in perspective	236	(6)
Scenarios in perspective	242	(1)
Risks in perspective	243	(13)
Quality assessment	256	(3)
Conclusions	259	(4)
References Chapter 5	261	(2)
Exploring the need for prima: a case-study approach	263	(30)
Selection of the case	263	(3)
RIVM	266	(5)
RIVM's Environmental Outlooks	271	(4)
The case-study methodology	275	(18)
Argumentation Analysis	276	(3)
Horizontal Document Analysis	279	(3)
Interviews	282	(3)
Change of Context-The De Kwaadsteniet Affair	285	(2)
Focus Group	287	(1)
Questionnarires	288	(1)
Cascade of Research Methods	289	(2)
References Chapter 6	291	(2)
Searching for uncertainty in RIVM's Environmental Outlooks	293	(60)
Document analyses	293	(1)
Argumentation analysis	294	(16)
Example of a Weak Conclusion	296	(5)
Example of a Strong Conclusion	301	(4)
Summary of the Vertical Document Analysis	305	(5)
Searching for sources of uncertainty	310	(3)
Horizontal document analysis	313	(16)
Linguistic Analysis	313	(6)
Analysis of the Scenarios	319	(9)
RIVM's Uncertainty Management As Deduced from the Document Analyses	328	(1)
Empirical research	329	(15)
Uncertainty in the Environmental Outlook Practise	330	(7)
Expressed Attitude Towards Uncertainty	337	(5)
RIVM's Learning Process	342	(2)
A need for the prima approach?	344	(5)
Conclusions	349	(4)
References Chapter 7	350	(3)
Exploring PRIMA's first steps in practice the case of the 5th Environmental Outlook	353	(54)
Research approach	354	(3)
Definition phase	357	(3)
Uncertainty in perspective - workshop	360	(21)
Surfacing Imporatant Uncertainties	361	(5)
Uncertainties in Perspective	366	(1)
Output of the Controllist Working Group	367	(5)
Output of the Market Optimist Working Group	372	(5)
The Environmental Worrywart	377	(4)
Analysis of the Workshop	381	(18)
Analysis of the Working Groups' Output	382	(8)
Evaluation of the Process: Lessons for Implementing Prima in Practise	390	(5)
Use of Prima Output in 5th Environmental Outlook	395	(4)
Practitioners's view on prima experience	399	(2)
Conclusions	401	(6)
References Chapter 8	405	(2)
Perspectives on uncertainty and risk: Conclusion and discussion	407	(12)
Summary of findings	408	(5)
Reflection	413	(1)
A Look ahead	414	(2)
Epilogue	416	(3)
Appendix 1 Letter to the Trouw editor	419	(2)
Appendix 2 Track record of Dekwaadsteniet affair	421	(4)
Appendix 3 Argumentation analysis schemes	425