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| List of Abbreviations | |
| Preface | |
| Introduction: The Theory and Practice of Predicting Political Change | |
| Theories of Political Change and Prediction of Change: Methodological Problems | |
| Methodological Problems of Tracking Changes in a Collective Belief System | |
| The Dimensions of a Collective Belief System: Existential Imperatives as Validity Claims | |
| Changing the Collective Belief System: The Process of Delegitimation | |
| Activating the Process of Delegitimation: Trigger Conditions of Change | |
| The Durability of Legitimacy: Personal and Systemic Factors of Maintenance | |
| Legitimacy of the Soviet Union: The Theory and Politics of a Concept | |
| Rational Choice Theory and Soviet Legitimacy: Coercion and Preference Falsification | |
| Oligarchic Petrification or Pluralistic Transformation: Paradigmatic Views of the Soviet Union in the 1970s | |
| The Totalitarian Model: Oligarchic Petrification and Final Doom | |
| The Revisionist Model: Pluralistic Transformation and Final Convergence | |
| Revising the Revisionist View of the Soviet Union: Oligarchic Degeneration and Ideological Assertion in the Late Brezhnev Period | |
| Paradigms and the Debate on Relations with the Soviet Union: Detente, New Internationalism, and Neoconservatism | |
| Realpolitik View of Detente: Securing American National Interests from a Declining Position of Power | |
| The New Internationalist View of Detente: Superpowers Working Together for a Moral Universe | |
| The Soviet View of Detente: Improving the "Correlation of Forces" | |
| The Neoconservative View of Detente: Outmaneuvering the United States | |
| Afghanistan and the Triumph of Neoconservatism | |
| The Reagan Administration and the Soviet Interregnum: Accelerating the Demise of the Communist Empire | |
| The Neoconservative Paradigm in Action: The Administration's Blueprint for Delegitimizing the Soviet Union | |
| The Brezhnev-Andropov Transition: The View from Moscow | |
| The Brezhnev-Andropov Transition: The View from Washington | |
| The Andropov-Chernenko Transition: The View from Moscow | |
| The Andropov-Chernenko Transition: The View from Washington | |
| The Chernenko-Gorbachev Transition: The View from Moscow | |
| The Chernenko-Gorbachev Transition: The View from Washington | |
| Acceleration: Tinkering Around the Edges, 1985-1986 | |
| Revisiting Communist Legitimacy: In Search of a New Formula | |
| Domestic Reforms and Gorbachev's Foreign Policy: Clouding the Vision for a Global Class Struggle | |
| Making Sense of Gorbachev: The Politics of the Predictive Process in Washington | |
| The Revisionist Paradigm Vindicated? Gorbachev and the Reformability of the Soviet System | |
| Perestroika: Systemic Change, 1987-1989 | |
| Experimenting with a New Legitimacy Formula: From Gramsci to "Socialist Democracy" and "Socialist Market" | |
| Gorbachev's Foreign Policy: The Architect of Imperial Shrinkage | |
| Perestroika and Overload of the Predictive Process in Washington | |
| 1989: The Year of Revolutionary Restructuring | |
| The Bush Administration: The Problems of Forecasting in a Revolutionary Whirlpool | |
| Paradigmatic Reconfigurations: Changing the View of the Past as a Way to Predict the Future | |
| The Unintended Consequences of Radical Transformation: Losing Control of the Revolution and the Collapse of the Soviet Union, 1990-1991 | |
| Group Legitimacy and the Soviet "Spring of Nations" | |
| Economic Legitimacy and the Limits of Market Socialism | |
| Rolling Back the Revolution: The Communist Backlash, the August Coup, and the Collapse of the Soviet Union | |
| The Washington Watch: A Guide for the Perplexed | |
| The Totalitarian Paradigm Vindicated? The Nonreformability of the Soviet System | |
| Reflections on Predictive Failures | |
| Paradigmatic Failure: Totalitarianism vs. Revisionism | |
| Policy Level: Vanquishing vs. Coexisting | |
| Intelligence Level: Advocacy vs. Objectivity | |
| Postdiction, Who Won the Cold War, and the Collapse of Sovietology | |
| Understanding the "Great Unknown": The Collapse of the Soviet Union and Predicting Political Change in the Future | |
| References | |
| Index | |
| About the Author | |
| Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved. |
