Population Dynamics A New Economic Approach

by Chu, C. Y. Cyrus

• ISBN13: 9780195121582
• ISBN10: 0195121589
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 1998-09-03
• Publisher: Oxford University Press

Summary

Population Dynamics fills the gap between the classical supply-side population theory of Malthus and the modern demand-side theory of economic demography. In doing so, author Cyrus Chu investigates specifically the dynamic macro implications of various static micro family economic decisions. Holding the characteristic composition of the macro population to always be an aggregate result of some corresponding individual micro decision, Chu extends his research on the fertility-related decisions of families to an analysis of other economic determinations. Within this framework, Chu studies the income distribution, attitude composition, job structure, and aggregate savings and pensions of the population. While in some cases a micro-macro connection is easily established under regular behavioral assumptions, in several chapters Chu enlists the mathematical tool of branching processes to determine the connection. Offering a wealth of detail, this book provides a balanced discussion of background motivation, theoretical characterization, and empirical evidence in an effort to bring about a renewal in the economic approach to population dynamics. This welcome addition to the research and theory of economic demography will interest professional economists as well as professors and graduate students of economics.

Table of Contents

1. Introduction	3	(10)
1.1 Classical and Modern Population Theory	3	(1)
1.2 Gaps Between Malthus and Becker	4	(1)
1.3 Restrictions of Age-Specific Models	5	(1)
1.4 Outline of this Book	6	(3)
1.5 Readership Background	9	(4)
I: STEADY STATES	13	(62)
2. Demographic Models and Branching Processes	13	(11)
2.1 Background	13	(1)
2.2 Preliminaries	14	(1)
2.3 Evolution of the Type Distribution	15	(1)
2.4 Projection Matrices and Functions	15	(2)
2.5 Steady States of Branching Processes	17	(2)
2.6 Verifying Positive Regularity	19	(3)
2.7 Meaning of the Dominant Eigenvalue	22	(1)
2.8 General Population Models in Previous Literature	23	(1)
3. Age-Specific Population Models: Steady States and Comparative Statics	24	(8)
3.1 Steady-State Age Distribution	24	(2)
3.2 Calculating Variable Means	26	(1)
3.3 Welfare Impact of Population Growth: Consumption-Loan Model	27	(1)
3.4 Welfare Impact of Population Growth: Neoclassical Growth Model	28	(2)
3.5 Welfare Impact of Population Growth: Income Inequality	30	(1)
3.6 Extensions and Comments	31	(1)
4. Income-Specific Population Models: Steady States and Comparative Dynamics	32	(14)
4.1 Background	32	(1)
4.2 Household Fertility Decision	33	(2)
4.3 Verifying Positive Regularity	35	(2)
4.4 Income-Specific Stable Population	37	(1)
4.5 Comparative Dynamics of Income Distribution	38	(4)
4.6 Comparative Statics of Growth Rate	42	(1)
4.7 Empirical Estimation of the Transition Matrix	43	(3)
5. Lineage Extinction and Inheritance Patterns	46	(13)
5.1 Background	46	(1)
5.2 Economic Decisions to Reduce Extinction Probability	47	(2)
5.3 Probability of Lineage Extinction	49	(3)
5.4 Lineage Preservation Decisions	52	(2)
5.5 Some Analytical Examples	54	(2)
5.6 Empirical Observations in History	56	(3)
6. Sex Preferences and Two-Sex Models	59	(16)
6.1 Background	59	(1)
6.2 Two-Sex Models	60	(4)
6.3 Fertility Decisions and Sex Preferences	64	(2)
6.4 Micro Sex Preferences and Macro Sex Ratios	66	(4)
6.5 Unequal Resource Division	70	(5)
II: CYCLES AND TRANSITIONS	75	(92)
7. Cyclical Patterns of Human Population: Summary of Previous Research	75	(13)
7.1 Background	75	(1)
7.2 Stationary Branching Processes	76	(1)
7.3 Time-Variant Branching Processes	77	(3)
7.4 Age-Specific Density Dependency	80	(1)
7.5 Hopf Bifurcation and Cycles	81	(4)
7.6 Predator-Prey Models	85	(1)
7.7 Remarks	86	(2)
8. Attitude-Specific Population Models: Dynamic Custom Evolution	88	(11)
8.1 Background	88	(2)
8.2 The Critical-Mass Models	90	(2)
8.3 Dynamic Custom Evolution	92	(3)
8.4 Trying to Change the Custom	95	(3)
8.5 Individual Interactions and Custom Cycles	98	(1)
9. Occupation-Specific Population Models: Population and Dynastic Cycles	99	(17)
9.1 Background	99	(3)
9.2 Occupation Switching and Population Dynamics	102	(4)
9.3 Empirical Analysis	106	(5)
9.4 Dynamics of Population Composition Under Anarchy	111	(3)
9.5 Remarks on Individual Choices and Institutional Changes	114	(2)
10. Easterlin Cycles: Fertility and the Labor Market	116	(15)
10.1 Background	116	(3)
10.2 Theoretical Modeling	119	(3)
10.3 Estimation and Statistical Tests	122	(3)
10.4 Endogenous Easterlin Cycles	125	(4)
10.5 Alternative Explanations of Easterlin Cycles	129	(2)
11. Demographic Transition and Economic Development	131	(17)
11.1 Background	131	(2)
11.2 Demographic Transition and Economic Growth	133	(5)
11.3 Demographic Transition and Public Pension	138	(3)
11.4 Intergenerational Transfers and Life-Cycle Consumption	141	(2)
11.5 Composition Distortion of Inequality Measurement	143	(3)
11.6 Demographic Transition and the Savings Rate	146	(2)
12. Age-Distribution Dynamics During Demographic Transitions	148	(19)
12.1 Background	148	(1)
12.2 Comparative Dynamics of Population Aging	149	(6)
12.3 Applications of the Density-Pivoting Results	155	(4)
12.4 Alternative Aging Indexes	159	(4)
12.5 Summary of Results	163	(4)
III: POPULATION DYNAMICS IN THE PAST AND IN THE FUTURE	167	(32)
13. Population Size and Early Development	167	(14)
13.1 Background	167	(4)
13.2 Some Stylized Evidence	171	(3)
13.3 From Primitive to Market Economy: The Role of Population Size	174	(1)
13.4 Infrastructure and the Division of Labor	175	(2)
13.5 Population Size and the Division of Labor	177	(2)
13.6 Discussion	179	(2)
14. Population Dynamics in the Very Long Run	181	(14)
14.1 Background	182	(1)
14.2 Nerlove's Model	182	(4)
14.3 Ecology, Ethnology, and Economic Activities	186	(4)
14.4 Toward a Mathematical Formulation	190	(5)
15. Epilogue	195	(4)
Notes	199	(6)
References	205	(16)
Index	221