Population and Food: Global Trends and Future Prospects

by Dyson,Tim

• ISBN13: 9780415119757
• ISBN10: 0415119758
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Nonspecific Binding
• Copyright: 1996-05-10
• Publisher: Routledge

Summary

While fertility rates in the post-industrial world have fallen below replacement levels, the birth rate and survival rates in the developing world are escalating rapidly. Changes in agricultural technology, food production and consumption patterns, as well as the global economic system itself, have created an unstable food production system worldwide. Population and Foodexamines trends in food production and assesses the prospects for feeding humanity into the 21st Century. Synthesizing a mass of statistical data and a wealth of case material, this book suggests that food production in most world regions has kept ahead of population growth. Considering likely future trends in climate, land resources, water availability, farm imputs and technnological innovation, the author argues that in all probability the people of the world will be better fed in the 21st than in the 20th Century.

Table of Contents

List of figures	x
List of tables	xii
Preface	xiv
Abbreviations	xviii
Pessimists and Optimists
Population and food	1	(2)
Some history and theory	3	(3)
Some anti-Malthusian views	6	(5)
The modern neo-Malthusian case	11	(7)
A question of balance	18	(4)
Concluding remarks	22	(2)
Population and Food Today
Introduction	24	(1)
Data sources and data quality	24	(4)
Dividing up the world	28	(5)
The definition and extent of hunger	33	(6)
Cereal production, consumption, trade and aid	39	(8)
Population growth and food supplies	47	(4)
An aside on food security	51	(4)
Concluding remarks	55	(3)
Population and Food: Recent Trends
Introduction	58	(1)
Trends in world cereal production	58	(6)
Where is the 'green revolution'?	64	(4)
Food crises and famines	68	(7)
Regional cereal production trends	75	(8)
Resume and commentary	83	(4)
Changes in harvest variability	87	(2)
Trends in food trade and aid	89	(2)
Trends in food production, availability and variety	91	(4)
Concluding remarks	95	(5)
Exploring the Future: Demand and Supply
Introduction	100	(1)
Future demand for cereals	101	(14)
Future supply of cereals	115	(10)
Weighing `demand' and `supply'	125	(7)
Overview of the scenario	132	(1)
Concluding remarks	133	(3)
Exploring the Future: Potentials and Constraints
Introduction	136	(1)
Global atmospheric changes	136	(7)
Soil and water	143	(12)
Farm inputs, crop developments and research	155	(6)
Physical and human capital	161	(2)
Institutions and markets	163	(3)
Food prices	166	(2)
Concluding remarks	168	(2)
Exploring the Future: Regional Vignettes
Introduction	170	(1)
Sub-Saharan Africa	170	(7)
The Middle East	177	(3)
South Asia	180	(4)
The Far East	184	(7)
Latin America	191	(1)
Europe and the former Soviet Union	192	(4)
North America and Oceania	196	(3)
Concluding remarks	199	(2)
Conclusions, Forecasts, Caveats, Tempered Hope
Preamble	201	(1)
Conclusions	201	(2)
Forecasts	203	(2)
Caveats	205	(3)
Tempered hope	208	(2)
Appendix: Country Data and Food Security Index, around 1990	210	(2)
Bibliography	212	(11)
Index	223