Population Matters Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World

by Birdsall, Nancy; Kelley, Allen C.; Sinding, Steven

• ISBN13: 9780199261864
• ISBN10: 0199261865
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2003-07-03
• Publisher: Oxford University Press

Summary

The effect of demography on economic performance has been the subject of intense debate in economics for nearly two centuries. In recent years opinion has swung between the Malthusian views of Coale and Hoover, and the cornucopian views of Julian Simon. Unfortunately, until recently, data weretoo weak and analytical models too limited to provide clear insights into the relationship. As a result economists as a group have not been clear or conclusive.This volume, based on a collection of papers that heavily rely on data from the 1980s and 1990s and on new analytical approaches, sheds important new light on demographic-economic relationships, and it provides clearer policy conclusions than any recent work on the subject. In particular, evidencefrom developing countries throughout the world shows a much clearer pattern in recent decades than was evident earlier: countries with higher rates of population growth have tended to see less economic growth. An analysis of the role of demography in the "Asian economic miracle" strongly suggeststhat changes in age structures resulting from declining fertility create a one-time "demographic gift" or window of opportunity, when the working age population has relatively few dependants, of either young or old age, to support. Countries which recognize and seize on this opportunity can, as theAsian tigers did, realize healthy bursts in economic output. But such results are by no means assured: only for countries with otherwise sound economic policies will the window of opportunity yield such dramatic results. Finally, several of the studies demonstrate the likelihood of a causalrelationship between high fertility and poverty. While the direction of causality is not always clear and very likely is reciprocal (poverty contributes to high fertility and high fertility reinforces poverty), the studies support the view that lower fertility at the country level helps create apath out of poverty for many families.Population Matters represents an important further step in our understanding of the contribution of population change to economic performance. As such, it will be a useful volume for policymakers both in developing countries and in international development agencies.

Author Biography

Nancy Birdsall is Senior Associate and Director, Economic Reform Project, Global Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Allen C. Kelley is James B. Duke Professor of Economics, Duke University. Steven Sinding is Director, Population Sciences Division, Rockefeller Foundation.

Table of Contents

List of Contributors	xiii
Part I. Setting the Stage	1	(64)
How and Why Population Matters: New Findings, New Issues	3	(21)
Nancy Birdsall
Steven W. Sinding
The Population Debate in Historical Perspective: Revisionism Revised	24	(31)
Allen C. Kelley
Dependency Burdens in the Developing World	55	(10)
John Bongaarts
Part II. Population Change and the Economy	65	(134)
Economic and Demographic Change: A Synthesis of Models, Findings, and Perspectives	67	(39)
Allen C. Kelley
Robert M. Schmidt
Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Inequality	106	(31)
Jeffrey G. Williamson
Saving, Wealth, and Population	137	(28)
Ronald D. Lee
Andrew Mason
Tim Miller
Cumulative Causality, Economic Growth, and the Demographic Transition	165	(34)
David Bloom
David Canning
Part III. Fertility, Poverty, and the Family	199	(124)
Population and Poverty in Households: A Review of Reviews	201	(12)
Thomas Merrick
Demographic Transition and Poverty: Effects via Economic Growth, Distribution, and Conversion	213	(47)
Robert Eastwood
Michael Lipton
Inequality and the Family in Latin America	260	(36)
Ricardo Hausmann
Miguel Szekely
Demographic Changes and Poverty in Brazil	296	(27)
Ricardo Paes de Barros
Sergio Firpo
Roberta Guedes Barreto
Phillippe George Pereira Leite
Part IV. Population, Agriculture, and Natural Resources	323	(46)
Rural Population Growth, Agricultural Change, and Natural Resource Management in Developing Countries: A Review of Hypotheses and some Evidence from Honduras	325	(44)
John Pender
Part V. Some Economics of Population Policy	369	(50)
Why Micro Matters	371	(40)
Jere R. Behrman
New Findings in Economics and Demography: Implications for Policies to Reduce Poverty	411	(8)
Nancy Birdsall
Index	419