Possibility for Decision

by Carlsson, Christer; Fuller, Robert

• ISBN13: 9783642226410
• ISBN10: 3642226418
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2011-07-26
• Publisher: Springer-Verlag New York Inc

Summary

This book starts with the basic concepts of fuzzy sets and progresses through a normative view on possibility distributions and OWA operators in multiple criteria decisions.  Five applications  (that all build on experience from solving complex real world problems) of possibility distributions to strategic decisions about closing/not closing a production plant using fuzzy real options,  portfolio selection with imprecise future data, predictive probabilities and possibilities for risk assessment in grid computing, fuzzy ontologies for process industry, and  design (and implementation) of mobile value services are presented and carefully discussed. It can be useful for researchers and students working in soft computing, real options, fuzzy decision making, grid computing, knowledge mobilization and mobile value services.

Table of Contents

Introduction	p. 1
Concepts and Issues	p. 7
Fuzzy Sets	p. 7
The Extension Principle	p. 12
Averaging Operators	p. 16
Possibility Distributions	p. 21
Probability Distributions	p. 24
A Normative View on Possibility Distributions	p. 27
Possibilistic Mean Value	p. 28
Illustrations	p. 32
Possibilistic Variance	p. 35
Illustrations	p. 36
Possibilistic Covariance	p. 37
Illustrations	p. 38
Possibilistic Correlation Coefficient	p. 42
Illustrations	p. 44
Non-interactive Fuzzy Numbers	p. 44
Perfect Correlation	p. 45
Joint Distribution: (1 - x - y)	p. 47
Joint Distribution: (y-x)	p. 49
Ball-Shaped Joint Possibility Distribution	p. 50
Mere Shadows	p. 51
Zero Correlation and Non-interactivity	p. 53
Possibilistic Correlation Ratio	p. 55
Illustrations	p. 56
A Linear Relationship	p. 56
A Nonlinear Relationship	p. 58
Joint Distribution: (1 û√x-y)	p. 60
Ball-Shaped Joint Distribution	p. 61
Joint Distribution: (1 - √x-√y)	p. 63
A Normative View on Quasi Fuzzy Numbers	p. 64
Exponential Membership Function	p. 70
Addition and Subtraction of Interactive Fuzzy Numbers	p. 73
OWA Operators in Multiple Criteria Decisions	p. 77
Obtaining OWA Operator Weights	p. 77
Constrained OWA Aggregations	p. 82
Recent Advances	p. 84
OCA Functions for Group Settlement Modeling	p. 88
Optimal Unconditional Settlement	p. 90
Optimal Settlement under Budget Constraints	p. 93
Optimal Settlement under Flexible Budget Constraints	p. 94
Olympic OWA Operators for Modeling Group Decisions	p. 96
Group Decisions under Fuzzy Budget Constraints	p. 99
Fuzzy Real Options for Strategic Decisions	p. 101
A Probabilistic Model	p. 102
A Fuzzy Model	p. 104
A Binomial Model	p. 105
Closing Production Plants - When and Where	p. 106
Production, Exports, Jobs and Investments	p. 108
The Production Plant and Future Scenarios	p. 111
Closing/Not Closing a Plant: A Case Study	p. 114
A Binomial Analysis	p. 115
A Fuzzy Interval Analysis	p. 116
A Comparative Analysis	p. 119
Discussion and Conclusions	p. 121
A Fuzzy Pay-Off Method for Real Option Valuation	p. 124
Optimal R&D Project Portfolios	p. 128
Portfolio Selection with Imprecise Future Data	p. 133
Possibilistic Choice of Portfolios with Highest Utility Score	p. 133
Recent Advances	p. 140
Risk Assessment in Grid Computing	p. 145
Risk Assessment	p. 147
Predictive Probabilities	p. 149
The Predictive Nature of Bayesian Inference	p. 149
Predictive Probabilities in Grid Computing Management	p. 152
A Hybrid Approach to Computing a Measure of Success	p. 156
Predictive Possibilities	p. 160
Predictive Possibilities in Grid Computing Management	p. 162
Knowledge Mobilization	p. 167
Ontologies	p. 168
Description Logics	p. 169
The Knowledge Mobilization Project	p. 171
Fuzzy Ontology for Process Industry	p. 173
The Keyword Ontology	p. 175
A Minimax Approach to Assess Keyword Dependencies	p. 178
Demo Architecture and Implementation	p. 179
An Approximate Reasoning Approach to Rank the Results of Fuzzy Queries	p. 180
Mobile Value Services	p. 185
Design Science and Mobile Service Design	p. 187
Mobile Services and Mobile Value Services	p. 189
Design and Implementation of Mobile Value Services	p. 193
Designing Mobile Value Services	p. 196
A Business Model	p. 200
The New Interactive Media (NIM) ÅLand Project	p. 201
Stakeholder and User Involvement	p. 205
User Acceptance Studies	p. 205
Method	p. 208
Results	p. 209
Discussion, Limitations and Conclusions	p. 210
Will Mobile TV be a Value Service for Consumers?	p. 213
The Braudel Rule	p. 214
A Brief Review: The Mobile TV Development and user Studies	p. 215
Early Experience from Finland	p. 218
The use of Mobile TV in Finland - The Consumer Survey	p. 218
Data Analysis and the Results	p. 219
Discussion	p. 221
Mobile Value Services: Conclusions and the Next Steps	p. 223
References	p. 227
Index	p. 247
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.