Predict Market Swings With Technical Analysis

by Michael McDonald

• ISBN13: 9780471205968
• ISBN10: 0471205966
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2002-03-01
• Publisher: Wiley

Summary

A fresh perspective on predicting the market The experience of Wall Street investment manager and analyst Michael McDonald offers a new perspective on how to navigate the turbulent ups and downs of the markets. His innovative approach to the stock market teaches investors how to use new investment strategies intended to replace the "buy and hold forever" strategies of yesterday. McDonald discusses what a "trading range" market is-a roller-coaster ride in which the market will neither gain nor lose much ground-and guides readers through this market with his proven investment strategies. This book provides an understandable way to make sense of the unpredictable stock market, taking into account more complex theories, including chaos and contrarian approaches. Along with his expert advice, McDonald presents four investing paradoxes that will help investors make smarter decisions now and predict where the market is heading, using his proven theories.

Author Biography

MICHAEL McDONALD ([e-mail]), Senior Vice President of investments at a major national brokerage firm, manages over $500 million in IRA rollover retirement assets for more than 1,200 clients. A native of Los Angeles, he has given more than 700 retirement and investment seminars over the past fifteen years. McDonald formerly appeared as a weekly market commentator for KWHY Channel 22 in Los Angeles.

Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION.

The Beginning.

The Market That Lies Ahead.

The Four Investing Paradoxes.

CHAPTER 1: TRADING PRICE SWINGS.

A New Market Paradigm.

Developing an Investment Opinion.

WhatÆs Coming Next?

CHAPTER 2: A NEW STOCK MARKET MODEL.

Solving the Big Theoretical Problem.

What Is a Model?

The Time Intention of the Trade.

The Stock Market Model I Use.

Market Predictability.

CHAPTER 3: FAIR VALUE: THE THEORY OF STACKING THE MONEY.

Fair Value.

Why Fair Value Theory Is Not Well Known.

The Fundamentals: Time and Money.

Stacking the Money to Determine Bond Prices.

Stacking the Money to Determine Stock Prices.

Why Interest Rates Are So Important.

Stacking the Money Resolves Two of the Investing Paradoxes.

CHAPTER 4: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND UNSTABLE MARKETS.

Technical Analysis Versus Fundamental Analysis.

Clarifying the Time Limitations on Technical Analysis.

Basics of Technical Analysis.

Paradox 3 Resolved.

CHAPTER 5: OF BABES, OÆBUCS, AND CONTRARY OPINION.

The Theory of Contrary Opinion.

How Investor Expectations Are Measured.

The Theory of Contrary Opinion: The Proof.

The Theory in Practice.

Resistance to Applying the Theory.

CHAPTER 6: PRICE PATTERNS, FRACTALS, AND MR. ELLIOTT.

Original Price Pattern Observations.

R.N. Elliott.

The Elliott Wave Theory Versus the Real Market.

Searching for an Underlying Theory.

Fractals: The Theory behind the Elliott Wave Patterns.

How Predictable Is the Real MarketÆs Fractal Pattern?

CHAPTER 7: TRADING RANGE MARKETS.

The Correction: What Will it Look Like?

The Current Elliott Wave Pattern.

The Economic "Why".

The Final Stampede.

CHAPTER 8: TRADING RANGE INVESTMENT STRATEGIES.

Two Approaches to Market Timing.

My First Moving-Average Study.

The New Moving-Average Study.

Moving Averages and Feedback Loops.

Using Standard Technical Analysis.

The Rise of Hedge Funds.

An Option Strategy for Trading Range Markets.

A Fund of Funds for a Trading Range Market.

INDEX