Predictable Surprises

by Bazerman, Max H.

• ISBN13: 9781591391784
• ISBN10: 1591391784
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2004-10-01
• Publisher: Harvard Business School Pr

Summary

Most events that catch us by surprise are both predictable and preventable, but we consistently miss (or ignore) the warning signs. This book shows why such "predictable surprises" put us all at risk, and shows how we can understand, anticipate, and prevent them before disaster strikes. There is a universal fear factor surrounding this subject: that society and the workplace are filled with disasters in the making that we could prevent if we only knew what to look for. This book plays on that fear and offers a positive, proactive resolution to it

Author Biography

Max H. Bazerman is the Jesse Isidor Straus Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School.

Table of Contents

Preface	ix
Acknowledgments	xiii
1 What is a Predictable Surprise?	1	(12)
A Preview
PART I PROTOTYPES OF PREDICTABLE SURPRISES	13	(56)
2 September	11	(32)
The Costs of Ignoring a Predictable Surprise	15	(28)
3 The Collapse of Enron and the Failure of Auditor Independence	43	(26)
PART II WHY DON'T WE ACT ON WHAT WE KNOW?	69	(84)
4 Cognitive Roots	71	(24)
The Role of Human Biases
5 Organizational Roots	95	(26)
The Role of Institutional Failures
6 Political Roots	121	(36)
The Role of Special-Interest Groups
PART III PREVENTING PREDICTABLE SURPRISES	153	(106)
7 Recognition	157	(22)
Identifying Emerging Threats Earlier
8 Prioritization	179	(24)
Focusing on the Right Problems
9 Mobilization	203	(22)
Building Support for Preventative Action
10 Future Predictable Surprises	225	(34)
Appendix A: General Accounting Office Reports Warning of Aviation Security Weaknesses, 1994-2001	259	(4)
Appendix B: Ten Elements of an Effective Crisis-Response Plan	263	(4)
Notes	267	(32)
Further Reading	299	(2)
Index	301	(22)
About the Authors	323