Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things

by Fair, Ray C.

• ISBN13: 9780804760492
• ISBN10: 0804760497
• Edition: 2nd
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2011-12-14
• Publisher: Stanford Economics & Finance

Summary

"It's the economy, stupid," as Democratic strategist James Carville would say. After many years of study, Ray C. Fair has found that the state of the economy has a dominant influence on national elections. Just in time for the 2012 presidential election, this new edition of his classic text, Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, provides us with a look into the likely future of our nation's political landscape--but Fair doesn't stop there. Fair puts other national issues under the microscope as well--including congressional elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation. In addition he covers topics well beyond today's headlines, as the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest such as wine quality, predicting football games, and aging effects in baseball. Which of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? Read Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Thingsand find out! As Fair works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, he teaches and delights. The discussion that underlies each chapter topic moves from formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. At the end of this book, readers will walk away with more than mere predictions. They will have learned a new approach to thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life, and will have a myriad of fun facts to share.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. ix
Introduction: What This Book Is About	p. 1
It's the Economy, Stupid	p. 6
A Theory of Voting Behavior	p. 7
The Data	p. 13
On to the Tools	p. 17
The Tools in Seven Easy Lessons	p. 18
(Monday) Lesson 1: Begin with a Theory	p. 18
(Tuesday) Lesson 2: Collect Data	p. 19
(Wednesday) Lesson 3: Fit the Data	p. 20
(Thursday) Lesson 4: Test	p. 24
(Friday) Lesson 5: Think About Pitfalls	p. 34
(Saturday) Lesson 6: Examine the Results	p. 36
(Sunday) Lesson 7: Predict	p. 37
Adding More Variables	p. 39
Testing for Other Variables	p. 42
Conclusion	p. 45
Presidential Elections	p. 46
A Theory of Voting Behavior	p. 46
The Data	p. 47
Fit and Test and Examine	p. 50
Possible Pitfalls	p. 55
What About the Electoral College?	p. 59
Do Campaigns Matter?	p. 60
Manipulating the Economy to Increase Votes	p. 61
Does Congress Matter?	p. 62
Do Voters Really Know the Growth Rate and Inflation Numbers?	p. 62
Real Time Predictions of the Eight Elections
Between 1980 and 2008	p. 62
Predictions of the 2012 Election	p. 65
Conclusion	p. 61
Congressional Elections	p. 68
A Theory of Voting Behavior	p. 69
The Data	p. 72
Fit and Test and Examine	p. 74
Possible Pitfalls	p. 19
Real Time Predictions of the Elections of 2008 and 2010	p. 82
Real Time Predictions for 2012	p. 82
Conclusion	p. 83
Extramarital Affairs	p. 85
A Theory of Extramarital Affairs	p. 86
The Data	p. 89
Fit and Test	p. 93
Possible Pitfalls	p. 96
Examine the Results and Predict	p. 99
Conclusion	p. 100
Wine Quality	p. 101
Theory and Data	p. 101
Fit the Data	p. 105
Possible Pitfalls	p. 107
Predict	p. 109
Can One Make Money?	p. 114
College Grades and Class Attendance	p. 115
Theory and Data	p. 116
Fit and Test and Examine the Results	p. 118
Possible Pitfalls	p. 121
Predict	p. 121
Marathon Times	p. 123
A Theory of the Decline Rate	p. 124
The Data	p. 125
Fit and Examine and Possible Pitfalls	p. 129
Use the Results	p. 136
Other Events	p. 139
Conclusion	p. 140
Aging and Baseball	p. 141
A Theory of Aging Effects in Baseball	p. 142
The Data	p. 143
Fit the Data	p. 145
The Results	p. 146
Possible Pitfalls	p. 153
Ageless Wonders or Steroids?	p. 155
Are Older Players Overpaid?	p. 158
Conclusion	p. 158
Predicting College Football Games	p. 160
Background and Theory	p. 160
The Data	p. 162
The Results	p. 163
Possible Pitfalls	p. 166
Use the Best Combination	p. 167
Betting Markets	p. 169
Interest Rates	p. 171
A Theory of Fed Behavior	p. 173
The Data	p. 176
Fit and Test	p. 178
Possible Pitfalls	p. 179
Examine the Results	p. 183
Predict Future Fed Behavior	p. 186
Inflation	p. 189
A Theory of Price Setting Behavior	p. 190
The Data	p. 194
Fit and Test	p. 194
Possible Pitfalls	p. 196
Examine the Results and Predict	p. 199
Inflation and the Fed	p. 200
More Things	p. 202
Chapter Notes	p. 205
Glossary	p. 209
Poetry Credits	p. 211
Index	p. 213
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