Preparing for Korean Unification: Scenarios & Implications

by Pollack, Jonathan D.; Lee, Chung Min

• ISBN13: 9780833027214
• ISBN10: 0833027212
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 1999-03-01
• Publisher: Natl Book Network

Summary

This study examines four alternative scenarios that would result in the unification of the Korean peninsula. The authors describe the defining characteristics of each scenario, potential indicators that would predict specific outcomes, some possible variations in paths to unification, and some operational implications for the U.S. Army under different conditions and circumstances. The four scenarios (peaceful unification, collapse and absorption, unification through armed conflict, and disequilibrium and external intervention) highlight both the increasing vulnerabilities of the North Korean state and the substantial uncertainties that attach to each outcome and to the potential U.S. policy respones.

Table of Contents

Preface	iii
Figures	vii
Tables	ix
Summary	xi
Acknowledgments	xix
Introduction	1	(26)
The Changing Peninsular Security Environment	2	(10)
The Roles of Japan, China, and Russia	12	(6)
Implications for U.S. and ROK Defense Planning	18	(3)
South Korea's Economic Crisis and Its Security Ramifications	21	(6)
The North Korean Conundrum	27	(22)
Pyongyang's Deepening Crisis	27	(4)
The Strategic Consequences of North Korea's Economic Decline	31	(3)
Impediments and Risks to a Reform Strategy	34	(5)
The Soft and Hard Landing Debate	39	(6)
Explaining Unification Scenarios	45	(4)
Scenario 1: Integration and Peaceful Unification	49	(8)
Major Characteristics	49	(3)
Potential Indicators	52	(3)
Variations	55	(2)
Scenario 2: Collapse and Absorption	57	(10)
Major Characteristics	59	(3)
Potential Indicators	62	(2)
Variations	64	(3)
Scenario 3: Unification Through Conflict	67	(8)
Major Characteristics	67	(3)
Potential Indicators	70	(2)
Variations	72	(3)
Scenario 4: Disequilibrium and Potential External Intervention	75	(8)
Major Characteristics	75	(3)
Potential Indicators	78	(2)
Variations	80	(3)
Postunification Dynamics and Their Regional Implications	83	(10)
Assessing a Unified Korea's Interests	86	(2)
Korea's Regional Role After Unification	88	(5)
Implications for the Army	93
Flexible Roles and Missions	93
New Intelligence Demands	94
Operational Requirements	94
Integration and Peaceful Unification	95
Collapse and Absorption	96
Unification Through Conflict	97
Disequilibrium and Potential External Intervention	97