Probabilities : The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives

by Peter Olofsson (Trinity University, USA )

• ISBN13: 9780470040010
• ISBN10: 0470040017
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2006-11-01
• Publisher: Wiley

Summary

This book is intended as a popular, but abbreviated treatise on probability theory. Basic concepts and techniques are introduced and illustrated mainly by drawing from a wealth of entertaining, paradoxical, and mind-boggling probability problems (such as the birthday problem or the Monty Hall problem).

Author Biography

PETER OLOFSSON, PHD, is currently a Visiting Associate Professor at Tulane University in New Orleans, Louisiana. Dr. Olofsson is an active researcher in the field of applied probability and is an experienced teacher. He is the author of the textbook Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes, also from Wiley.

Table of Contents

Preface	v
Computing Probabilities: Right Ways and Wrong Ways	1	(44)
The Probabilist	1	(3)
The Probabilist's Toys and Language	4	(5)
The Probabilist's Rule Book	9	(5)
Independence, Airplanes, and Russian Peasants	14	(6)
Conditional Probability, Swedish TV, and British Courts	20	(4)
Liar, Liar	24	(4)
Total Probability, Used Cars, and Tennis Matches	28	(5)
Combinatorics, Pastrami, and Poetry	33	(4)
The von Trapps and the Binomial Distribution	37	(6)
Final Word	43	(2)
Surprising Probabilities: When Intuition Struggles	45	(26)
Boys, Girls, Aces, and Colored Cards	45	(5)
Goats and Gloats	50	(2)
Happy Birthday	52	(5)
Typical Atypicalities	57	(4)
Strategies, Shopping, and Spaghetti Westerns	61	(4)
The British Snob and I	65	(5)
Final Word	70	(1)
Tiny Probabilities: Why Are They So Hard to Escape?	71	(22)
Probable Improbabilities	71	(4)
Saddam and I	75	(5)
Taking Tiny Risks	80	(2)
A Million-to-One Shot, Doc, Million to One!	82	(2)
Monsieur Poisson and the Mysterious Number 37	84	(5)
Clumps in Space	89	(2)
Final Word	91	(2)
Backward Probabilities: The Reverend Bayes to Our Rescue	93	(22)
Driving Miss Daisy	93	(3)
Bayes, Balls, and Boys (and Girls)	96	(2)
Bayes and My Green Card	98	(5)
Objection Your Honor	103	(9)
Final Word	112	(3)
Beyond Probabilities: What to Expect	115	(30)
Great Expectations	115	(8)
Good Things Come to Those Who Wait	123	(6)
Expect the Unexpected	129	(3)
Size Matters (and Length, and Age)	132	(6)
Deviant Behavior	138	(5)
Final Word	143	(2)
Inevitable Probabilities: Two Fascinating Mathematical Results	145	(30)
Alea Iacta Est, Over and Over	145	(4)
Even-Steven? The Law Misunderstood	149	(6)
Coin Tosses and Freeway Congestion	155	(7)
Let's Get Serious	162	(4)
Bells and Bread	166	(5)
How a Toronto Quincunx Changed My Life	171	(2)
Final Word	173	(2)
Gambling Probabilities: Why Donald Trump Is Richer than You	175	(36)
French Letters	175	(4)
Roulette: A Classy Way to Waste Your Money	179	(5)
Craps: Not so Dicey After All	184	(3)
Blackjack: Money for Mnemonics	187	(6)
Math for Losers	193	(7)
Win Money and Lose Friends	200	(10)
Final Word	210	(1)
Guessing Probabilities: Enter the Statisticians	211	(34)
Lies, Damned Lies, and Beautiful Lies?	211	(4)
4 out of 10 Like the President 19 Times out of 20	215	(5)
Polls Gone Wild	220	(5)
The Lawsuit and the Lurker	225	(5)
Football Players and Geyser Eruptions	230	(7)
Snooping in the Abbot's Garden	237	(5)
Final Word	242	(3)
Faking Probabilities: Computer Simulation	245	(18)
Mahogany Dice and Modular Arithmetic	245	(7)
Random and Not-So-Random Digits	252	(1)
Number One Is Number One	253	(3)
Is Random Really Random?	256	(5)
Final Word	261	(2)
Index	263