Probabilities The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives

by Olofsson, Peter

• ISBN13: 9780470624456
• ISBN10: 0470624450
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2010-03-22
• Publisher: Wiley

Summary

This book is intended as a popular, but abbreviated treatise on probability theory. Basic concepts and techniques are introduced and illustrated mainly by drawing from a wealth of entertaining, paradoxical, and mind-boggling probability problems (such as the birthday problem or the Monty Hall problem). The writing style is purposefully enjoyable and mostly non-technical. The pace is leisurely. No knowledge of calculus of previous knowledge of probability theory or statistics is required. The emphasis is on entertainment and pedagogy rather than applicability or usefulness. Examples reflect everyday occurrences, not pre-fabricated or altered data. While honest in approach, the author takes great pain to ease the level of mathematics throughout the work. Probability theory is learned by and through example.

Author Biography

Peter Olofsson, PhD, is Associate Professor of Mathematics at Trinity University. Dr. Olofsson is an active researcher in the field of applied probability and is an experienced teacher. He is the author of Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes, also from Wiley.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. v
Computing Probabilities: Right Ways and Wrong Ways	p. 1
The Probabilist	p. 1
The Probabilist's Toys and Language	p. 4
The Probabilist's Rule Book	p. 9
Independence, Airplanes, and Russian Peasants	p. 14
Conditional Probability, Swedish TV, and British Courts	p. 20
Liar, Liar	p. 24
Total Probability, Used Cars, and Tennis Matches	p. 28
Combinatorics, Pastrami, and Poetry	p. 33
The von Trapps and the Binomial Distribution	p. 37
Final Word	p. 43
Surprising Probabilities: When Intuition Struggles	p. 45
Boys, Girls, Aces, and Colored Cards	p. 45
Goats and Gloats	p. 50
Happy Birthday	p. 52
Typical Atypicalities	p. 57
Strategies, Shopping, and Spaghetti Westerns	p. 61
The British Snob and I	p. 65
Final Word	p. 70
Tiny Probabilities: Why Are They So Hard to Escape?	p. 71
Probable Improbabilities	p. 71
Saddam and I	p. 75
Taking Tiny Risks	p. 80
A Million-to-One Shot, Doc, Million to One!	p. 82
Monsieur Poisson and the Mysterious Number 37	p. 84
Clumps in Space	p. 89
Final Word	p. 91
Backward Probabilities: The Reverend Bayes to Our Rescue	p. 93
Driving Miss Daisy	p. 93
Bayes, Balls, and Boys (and Girls)	p. 96
Bayes and My Green Card	p. 98
Objection Your Honor	p. 103
Final Word	p. 112
Beyond Probabilities: What to Expect	p. 115
Great Expectations	p. 115
Good Things Come to Those Who Wait	p. 123
Expect the Unexpected	p. 129
Size Matters (and Length, and Age)	p. 132
Deviant Behavior	p. 138
Final Word	p. 143
Inevitable Probabilities: Two Fascinating Mathematical Results	p. 145
Alea Iacta Est, Over and Over	p. 145
Even-Steven? The Law Misunderstood	p. 149
Coin Tosses and Freeway Congestion	p. 155
Let's Get Serious	p. 162
Bells and Bread	p. 166
How a Toronto Quincunx Changed My Life	p. 171
Final Word	p. 173
Gambling Probabilities: Why Donald Trump Is Richer than You	p. 175
French Letters	p. 175
Roulette: A Classy Way to Waste Your Money	p. 179
Craps: Not so Dicey After All	p. 184
Blackjack: Money for Mnemonics	p. 187
Math for Losers	p. 193
Win Money and Lose Friends	p. 200
Final Word	p. 210
Guessing Probabilities: Enter the Statisticians	p. 211
Lies, Damned Lies, and Beautiful Lies?	p. 211
4 out of 10 Like the President 19 Times out of 20	p. 215
Polls Gone Wild	p. 220
The Lawsuit and the Lurker	p. 225
Football Players and Geyser Eruptions	p. 230
Snooping in the Abbot's Garden	p. 237
Final Word	p. 242
Faking Probabilities: Computer Simulation	p. 245
Mahogany Dice and Modular Arithmetic	p. 245
Random and Not-So-Random Digits	p. 252
Number One Is Number One	p. 253
Is Random Really Random?	p. 256
Final Word	p. 261
Index	p. 263
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.