Probability and Evidence

by Paul Horwich

• ISBN13: 9780521283366
• ISBN10: 0521283361
• Edition: Revised
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2011-06-16
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Summary

In this volume, which was originally published in 1982, Paul Horwich presents a clear and unified approach to a number of problems in the philosophy of science. He diagnoses the failure of other attempts to resolve them as stemming from a too-rigid, all-or-nothing conception of belief, and adopts instead a Bayesian strategy, emphasising the degree of confidence to which we are entitled the light of scientific evidence. This probabilistic approach, he argues, yields a more complete understanding of the assumptions and procedures characteristic of scientific reasoning. It also accounts for the merits of simplicity, severe tests and surprising predictions, and provides a way in which the dispute between the realist and instrumentalist views of science might be resolved. The result is a crisp, well-focused contribution to the philosophy of science. The elaboration of an important conception of probability will stimulate anyone with an interest in the field.

Table of Contents

Preface

Methodology

Introduction

Aspects of the scientific method

A taste of Bayesianism

Probability

The primitive theory

Subjectivism

The rationalist interpretation

The logical interpretation

The evidential state

The empirical interpretation

Confirmation

Explications

The paradox

A Bayesian pseudo-solution to the problem of induction

Projection

Induction

The Nature of Inductive Inference

Conditions of Rationality

Demonstrable reliability

The demonstrable reliability of c+

Immodesty

Audacity

The Justification of Induction

The impossibility of a noncircular rationale

Inductive demonstration of reliability

Semantic justification

Prediction

Surprise

Severe tests

Ad hoc hypothesis

Prediction versus accommodation

Evidence

The evidential value of varied data

The value of further data

Realism

Popper

Realism versus instrumentalism

Putnam

Glymour

Conclusion

Bibliography

Index

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