Probability: A Philosophical Introduction

by MELLOR; D H

• ISBN13: 9780415282512
• ISBN10: 0415282519
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Nonspecific Binding
• Copyright: 2005-07-12
• Publisher: Routledge

Summary

Probability: A Philosophical Introductionpresents the basic concepts of probability to philosophy students who are new to this area of the subject. Probability plays an important part in many areas of philosophy, such as causation in metaphysics, induction in philosophy of science, and belief and justification in epistemology. This book: * assumes no mathematical background and keeps the technicalities to a minimum * explains the most important applications of probability theory to philosophy * outlines the different kinds of probability and assesses the strengths and weaknesses of each * introduces and discusses key terms such as propensity, frequency, evidence and credence D.H. Mellor presents and compares theories of probability in a simple and impartial way, makingProbability: A PhilosophicalIntroductionessential reading for any philosophy student confronted with probability for the first time.

Table of Contents

Preface	xi
Introduction and Summary
Introduction	1	(2)
Summary	3	(4)
Kinds of Probability
Introduction	7	(2)
Chances	9	(1)
Epistemic Probabilities	10	(1)
Credences	11	(1)
How Kinds of Probability Differ	12	(1)
Probabilities of Complex Propositions	13	(1)
Conditional Probabilities	14	(1)
Numerical Probabilities	15	(3)
Pure and Applied Probability	18	(3)
Classical Probabilities
Introduction	21	(1)
Two Kinds of Possibility	22	(1)
Credences	23	(1)
Sample Spaces	24	(2)
Infinite Sample Spaces	26	(1)
Indifference	27	(2)
Chances	29	(3)
Frequencies
Credences	32	(1)
Epistemic Probabilities	33	(2)
Humean Chances	35	(3)
Frequentism and Classicism	38	(2)
Limiting Frequencies	40	(2)
Hypothetical Frequencies	42	(3)
Possibilities and Propensities
Modal Chances	45	(4)
Propensities	49	(2)
Dispositions	51	(2)
Dispositional Chances	53	(5)
Chance and Necessity	58	(3)
Modality versus Propensity	61	(1)
The Existence of Chances	62	(3)
Credence
Degrees of Belief	65	(2)
Betting and Belief	67	(2)
Coherence	69	(2)
Approximate Credences	71	(3)
Decision Theory	74	(5)
Confirmation
Measuring Evidential Support	79	(1)
Epistemic and Other Probabilities	80	(2)
Inductive Logic	82	(2)
Chances as Evidence	84	(3)
Confirmation Relations	87	(3)
Conditionalisation
Conditional Probability	90	(1)
The Pro Rata Rule	91	(2)
Epistemic Probabilities	93	(1)
Problems with Priors	94	(2)
Prior Credences	96	(1)
Bayes's Theorem	97	(2)
Bayesianism	99	(2)
Input Credences
Perception	101	(2)
Consistency	103	(2)
Reliability	105	(3)
Uncertain Evidence	108	(4)
Questions for Bayesians
Sample Spaces	112	(2)
Bayes's Proposition 3	114	(2)
Decisions and Credences	116	(3)
Conditional Bets	119	(2)
Imaging	121	(1)
Non-Bayesian Behaviour	122	(3)
Conclusion	125	(2)
Chance, Frequency and Credence
The Straight Rule	127	(2)
The Large Numbers Link	129	(2)
Independence	131	(2)
Chances and Estimates	133	(1)
Exchangeability	134	(1)
Frequencies and Credences	135	(3)
Subjectivism	138	(4)
References	142	(5)
Index	147