Probably Not: Future Prediction Using Probability and Statistical Inference

by Lawrence N. Dworsky (Phoenix, AZ, USA )

• ISBN13: 9780470282045
• ISBN10: 0470282045
• Additional ISBN(s): 9780470184011, 9780470282052
• Format: eBook
• Copyright: 2008-05-01
• Publisher: Wiley-Interscience
• More Book Details
• Purchase Benefits

Summary

Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances.

Table of Contents

Introduction

An Introduction to Probability

Predicting The Future

Rule Making

Random Events and Probability

The Lottery {Very Improbable Events and Large Data Sets}

Coin Flipping {Fair Games, Looking Backwards For Insight}

The Coin Flip Strategy That CanÆt Lose

The Prize Behind The Door {Looking Backwards For Insight, Again}

The Checker Board {Dealing With Only Part Of The Data Set}

Probability Distribution Functions And Some Basics

The Probability Distribution Function

Averages And Weighted Averages

Expected Values

The Basic Coin Flip Game

The Standard Deviation

The Cumulative Distribution Function

The Confidence Interval

Final Points

Building a Bell

Random Walks

The One Dimensional Random Walk

What Probability Really Means

Diffusion

Life Insurance and Social Security

Insurance as Gambling

Life Tables

Birth Rates and Population Stability

Life Tables, Again

Premiums

Social Security - Sooner Or Later?

Binomial Probabilities

The Binomial Probability Formula

Permutations And Combinations

Large Number Approximations

The Poisson Distribution

Disease Clusters

Clusters

Pseudorandom Numbers and Monte Carlo Simulations

Pseudorandom Numbers

The Middle Square PSNG

The Linear Congruential PSNG

A Normal Distribution Generator

An Arbitrary Distribution Generator

Monte Carlo Simulations

A League Of Our Own

Some Gambling Games In Detail

The Basic Coin Flip Game

The Gantt Chart

The Ultimate "Winning Strategy"

The Game Show

Parimutuel Betting

Traffic Lights And Traffic

Outsmarting A Traffic Light?

Many Lights And Many Cars

Simulating Traffic Flow - The Simulation

Simulation Results

Combined And Conditional Probabilities

Functional Notation

Conditional Probability

Medical Test Results

The Shared Birthday Problem

Scheduling And Waiting

Scheduling Appointments In The DoctorÆs Office

Lunch With A Friend

Waiting For A Bus

Stock Market Portfolios

Benford, Parrondo and Simpson

BenfordÆs Law

ParrondoÆs Paradox

SimpsonÆs Paradox

Networks, Infectious Disease Propagation and Chain Letters

Degrees Of Separation

Propagation Along Networks

Some Other Uses Of Networks

Neighborhood Chains

Bird Counting

A Walk In The Woods

A Model Of Bird Flying Habits

Spotting A Bird

Putting It All Together

Statistical Mechanics And Heat

Statistical Mechanics

Thermodynamics

Introduction To Statistical Analysis

Sampling

Sample Distributions and Standard Deviations

Estimating Population Average From A Sample

The Student-T Distribution

Polling Statistics

Did A Sample Come From A Given Population?

Chaos and Quanta

Chaos

Probability In Quantum Mechanics

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