Probably Not: Future Prediction... | Buy

Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances.

Introduction
An Introduction to Probability
Predicting The Future
Rule Making
Random Events and Probability
The Lottery {Very Improbable Events and Large Data Sets}
Coin Flipping {Fair Games, Looking Backwards For Insight}
The Coin Flip Strategy That CanÆt Lose
The Prize Behind The Door {Looking Backwards For Insight, Again}
The Checker Board {Dealing With Only Part Of The Data Set}
Probability Distribution Functions And Some Basics
The Probability Distribution Function
Averages And Weighted Averages
Expected Values
The Basic Coin Flip Game
The Standard Deviation
The Cumulative Distribution Function
The Confidence Interval
Final Points
Building a Bell
Random Walks
The One Dimensional Random Walk
What Probability Really Means
Diffusion
Life Insurance and Social Security
Insurance as Gambling
Life Tables
Birth Rates and Population Stability
Life Tables, Again
Premiums
Social Security - Sooner Or Later?
Binomial Probabilities
The Binomial Probability Formula
Permutations And Combinations
Large Number Approximations
The Poisson Distribution
Disease Clusters
Clusters
Pseudorandom Numbers and Monte Carlo Simulations
Pseudorandom Numbers
The Middle Square PSNG
The Linear Congruential PSNG
A Normal Distribution Generator
An Arbitrary Distribution Generator
Monte Carlo Simulations
A League Of Our Own
Some Gambling Games In Detail
The Basic Coin Flip Game
The Gantt Chart
The Ultimate "Winning Strategy"
The Game Show
Parimutuel Betting
Traffic Lights And Traffic
Outsmarting A Traffic Light?
Many Lights And Many Cars
Simulating Traffic Flow - The Simulation
Simulation Results
Combined And Conditional Probabilities
Functional Notation
Conditional Probability
Medical Test Results
The Shared Birthday Problem
Scheduling And Waiting
Scheduling Appointments In The DoctorÆs Office
Lunch With A Friend
Waiting For A Bus
Stock Market Portfolios
Benford, Parrondo and Simpson
BenfordÆs Law
ParrondoÆs Paradox
SimpsonÆs Paradox
Networks, Infectious Disease Propagation and Chain Letters
Degrees Of Separation
Propagation Along Networks
Some Other Uses Of Networks
Neighborhood Chains
Bird Counting
A Walk In The Woods
A Model Of Bird Flying Habits
Spotting A Bird
Putting It All Together
Statistical Mechanics And Heat
Statistical Mechanics
Thermodynamics
Introduction To Statistical Analysis
Sampling
Sample Distributions and Standard Deviations
Estimating Population Average From A Sample
The Student-T Distribution
Polling Statistics
Did A Sample Come From A Given Population?
Chaos and Quanta
Chaos
Probability In Quantum Mechanics
Table of Contents provided by Publisher. All Rights Reserved.

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